8 College Football Players Destined for Regression in 2015
College football players only have four years to show their programs and people at the professional level of football that they're valuable and can always be counted on to put up great numbers. The players who show consistency every season—or, better yet, show improvement with each passing season—have the advantage. Unfortunately, for any number of reasons, not every college football player can do this.
This slideshow includes eight players who, I believe, will actually have worse years in 2015 than they did in 2014.
These players had pretty great seasons in 2014. Keep in mind that I don't believe these guys will have bad years in 2015; they just won't be as good as they were last season.
As always, please share your thoughts in the comments section below.
With that, here are the players.
Leonte Carroo, Rutgers
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Leonte Carroo showed the upgrade in competition from the AAC to the Big Ten didn't faze him. The changes made within the Rutgers program this offseason, however, will be harder for Carroo to manage.
In 2014, Carroo was a first-team All-Big Ten media selection. Carroo returns as the Big Ten leader in receiving yards (1,086) and receiving touchdowns (10) from last season. As the fifth-rated wide receiver in the Class of 2016, Carroo has a chance to be one of the nation's best at the position in 2015.
That won't happen, though, because Rutgers loses too much from its passing game.
Andrew Turzilli, a transfer from Kansas, was a big-play threat for Rutgers, as he collected 347 yards and four touchdowns on just 10 receptions.
Tyler Kroft and Michael Burton, two players who were helpful as pass-catchers and quarterback protectors, were NFL-caliber guys who were among the best at their respective positions of tight end and fullback. On the subject of protecting the quarterback, the Scarlet Knights lose three starting offensive linemen from last season. These aren't the biggest departures from the offense, though.
Again, Rutgers will have a new offensive coordinator, thanks to the retirement of Ralph Friedgen. Ben McDaniels, the Scarlet Knights' former wide receivers coach (and the brother of New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels), replaces Friedgen. Am I forgetting someone?
Oh yes, Gary Nova. Nova and Carroo indeed were a battery at Rutgers, but they also played together at Don Bosco Prep (New Jersey) before college. They had seven years to build chemistry together, whereas Carroo and whoever starts under center in 2015 will have seven months. This can't be ignored.
Rutgers would be smart to run the ball in 2015, as the top eight leaders in rushing yards from 2014 return. Doing so would cut into Carroo's opportunities.
I tend to agree with Steve Politi of The Star-Ledger that Carroo should have declared for the 2015 NFL draft.
Nick Chubb, Georgia
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Nick Chubb enters 2015 as arguably the most feared running back in the land, but will he continue to strike this level of fear into defenses during the season? Sure, he'll be one of the nation's top running backs, but he won't be as effective of a runner this season.
With the exception of Todd Gurley, Georgia loses more from its passing game than its running game. Quarterback Hutson Mason and his two top targets are gone. Running backs Keith Marshall and Sony Michel should return at full strength following injury-plauged seasons. What does this mean for Chubb?
Andrew Hall of B/R believes Chubb will get even more touches than the 237 he got in 2014. Two questions about this stick out: Will he be able to sustain this workload physically, and will he be able to average 7.4 yards per play like he did in 2014? I don't think so.
Additionally, the offensive coordinator and center from 2014 have moved on. Mike Bobo, who has been involved with Georgia football nearly his entire adult life, took the head coaching job at Colorado State. David Andrews, the center, graduates after being a Rimington Award finalist.
Four starting offensive linemen from 2014 and former NFL offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are in Athens, but there's too much change in other areas for Chubb to repeat last season's performance.
Dalvin Cook, Florida State
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Dalvin Cook had a great true freshman season for Florida State in 2014. Cook showed why he was the 21st-rated player in the country in the ESPNU Class of 2014. In 2015, I don't believe Cook will live up to the pressure of being the Seminoles' most important offensive piece.
Last season, Cook led Florida State in rushing, with 170 carries and 1,008 yards, and he was second on the team in rushing touchdowns with eight. Cook was able to do that, though, because he had an outstanding supporting cast. He won't have many of those guys around in 2015.
Cook split carries with Karlos Williams, a senior, in 2014. Nick O'Leary, the 2014 Mackey Award winner, is gone too. So is leading receiver Rashad Greene. Four of the Seminoles' starting offensive linemen from a season ago are gone as well.
The biggest loss, though, is quarterback Jameis Winston. The 2013 Heisman winner waived his final two years of eligibility for a chance to be the top pick in the 2015 NFL draft.
Cook is the face of Florida State's rebuild on offense, and though he'll put up bigger numbers in 2015, don't expect them to be better.
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Rashard Higgins, Colorado State
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Under the old system at Colorado State, Rashard Higgins developed into one of the nation's best wide receivers. With a new system in Fort Collins starting this season, it'll be tough for Higgins to replicate the success he's had so far.
In 2014, Higgins was a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, as he led the nation in receiving yards (1,750) and receiving touchdowns (17). Even so, Higgins was really just one part of a four-man team that gave an identity to the Rams offense; those other three aren't returning to the team in 2015.
Dee Hart, a transfer from Alabama, was actually the most used player in the offense. Hart had 212 touches (compared to Higgins' 96), and the running back had 18 touchdowns from scrimmage—one more than Higgins. Hart waived his final year of eligibility to enter the 2015 NFL draft.
Garrett Grayson, the quarterback, is also gone. Grayson was the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year—not Higgins. The senior passer, who re-wrote the school's record books, is considered one of the five best quarterbacks in the 2015 NFL draft.
Most importantly, the man most responsible for the success of the entire unit won't be back. Jim McElwain, the Colorado State head coach the past three seasons, accepted the same position at Florida during the offseason.
The Rams replaced McElwain with Mike Bobo, the right-hand man of Mark Richt at Georgia for 14 years. Bobo brings a new face to the program, as well as a new offense: the no-huddle. Higgins hasn't played in a no-huddle offense before, and with so much other transition within the Colorado State offense, another All-American season doesn't seem likely.
Did I mention Ty Sambrailo, a top-10 offensive tackle prospect in the 2015 NFL draft, won't return either?
Brad Kaaya, Miami (Florida)
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It only took a few months for Brad Kaaya to go from the future of the Miami Hurricanes to the present. Can the 19-year-old bring The U back to glory in 2015? Possibly, but the challenge appears too great.
Kaaya wasn't projected to start at quarterback this time last year, but he impressed the coaches enough to give him the job over Ryan Williams and Jake Heaps, a transfer from Kansas who had 25 career starts coming into 2014. Not far removed from winning ACC Freshman of the Year, Kaaya is the only one of those three returning this season.
Williams and Heaps aren't the only guys who have moved on.
Duke Johnson and Phillip Dorsett, the Hurricanes' leading rusher and receiver in 2014, are gone. So is the entire left side of the offensive line, led by likely first-rounder Ereck Flowers. Don't forget tight end Clive Walford, and that's just on offense.
Defensively, too, Miami has graduated a number of senior leaders.
Head coach Al Golden isn't giving the program much help either. Golden has the fourth-hottest seat in the country; he hasn't come close to matching the success the Hurricanes had a decade ago under Larry Coker.
Hurricanes supporters don't want to hear this, but the program's struggles aren't over, and as its leader, Kaaya will struggle in 2015 as well.
Blake Martinez, Stanford
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Stanford is fortunate to return its best all-around defender from 2014, Blake Martinez, because just about everyone else from the unit has moved on.
Martinez was an All-Pac-12 honorable mention in 2014, as he led the Cardinal in tackles (101). This season, the Cardinal won't have guys on defense who can help Martinez maintain those numbers.
After Martinez, 10 of the next 13 leading tacklers from last season could be gone. We're still waiting on the team's seventh-leading tackler, Zach Hoffpauir, to decide if he's going to play professional baseball next year. With all these losses, don't expect Stanford to have the second-rated scoring defense in the nation like it did last year.
Martinez made a gigantic leap up the stat sheet from 2013 to 2014. He finished first on the team in tackles in 2014, but he finished 21st in the category in 2013. Martinez first benefited from an exodus of the top defenders, but now, he's going to suffer statistically because of it.
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State
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Dak Prescott went from good SEC dual-threat quarterback in 2013 to Heisman contender in 2014. Prior to 2015, Prescott has justifiable Heisman hype, but it'll cool down as the season progresses.
Very few players had the ball in their hands more than Prescott last season. Among those returning across the country in 2015, Prescott was third in total yards and total touchdowns, and he was fifth in total plays. That's why Prescott finished eighth in Heisman voting (and third among returning players).
If Prescott wasn't the leader of Mississippi State in 2014, then he clearly is now. Only three teams in FBS are losing more starters from last season than the Bulldogs.
Josh Robinson, the team's leading rusher in 2014, waived his final year of eligibility and declared for the 2015 NFL draft. Leading receiver De'Runnya Wilson returns, but after him, four of the eight leaders in receptions are out. Prescott did a good job spreading the ball around, but now he'll be doing so with a less experienced group.
Prescott shouldn't count on his defense this season like he could last season. The Bulldogs lose a lot of their key defensive players to the NFL draft.
Additionally, Prescott won't have three of his offensive linemen blocking for him again. That will hamper Prescott's abilities as a runner and a passer.
Mississippi State got national attention after earning its first No. 1 ranking during the season, but that was with the old roster. Prescott will have to do much more to keep all eyes on the program, but that will be too much to ask, given the diminished resources around him.
Scooby Wright, Arizona
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Phillip Anthony Wright III, commonly known as Scooby Wright, had a historic season at linebacker for the Arizona Wildcats in 2014. It's unrealistic to predict Wright will have another such season in 2015.
Wright finished ninth in the 2014 Heisman voting, which led all defensive players, and he took home three major individual awards (Nagurski, Bednarik, Lombardi). The rising junior led all players returning in 2015, across the country, in the following categories last season: solo tackles, total tackles, tackles for loss, sacks and forced fumbles.
Why won't Wright be as effective in 2015?
First, he's losing many of his partners from the defense. After Wright, five of the eight leading tacklers for Arizona in 2014 are gone. Second, Wright is one of the defenders in college football whom opponents must avoid completely. Anyone he sneaked up on last season won't be so foolish this season.
Wright will be a great linebacker again this season, but don't assume he'll be the best statistically.
Unless noted otherwise, stats and rankings courtesy of CBSSports.com and Sports-Reference.com.
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