Can Tommy Hunter Remain A Usable Fantasy Option?

It would be easy to write-off Tommy Hunter after a dismal cup of coffee with the Rangers in 2008, posting a 16.36 ERA over 11.0 innings of work.  That clearly would have been a mistake, however, as he has been a tremendous find for many fantasy owners in 2009 having posted the following line:

6 Wins
61.1 Innings
2.64 ERA
1.14 WHIP
40 Strikeouts (5.87 K/9)
20 Walks (2.93 BB/9)
.253 BABIP

The WHIP is a number that certainly stands out, so the first question we have to ask is if it is a believable number or not.  The walks have been extremely impressive, and are also consistent with the work he did in the minor leagues.

Over 252.1 innings he walked just 55 batters, good for a BB/9 of 1.96.  Before we discredit that number as being against lower level competition, 102.1 of the innings actually came in Triple-A, where he posted a BB/9 of 2.20.  At this point there is no reason to think he cannot maintain the type of control he’s been displaying, certainly an advantage in putting up a useful WHIP.

The problem could come from the BABIP, which is certainly on the lower side.  It would be easy to say that an expected increase there wouldn’t have a major impact if he was a strikeout machine, but that clearly is not the case.

Over his minor league career he posted just a 6.07 K/9, a number that was actually lower at Triple-A, where he posted a 5.55.  That makes that 1.14 WHIP a nearly impossible number to maintain.  The BABIP would place him third in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify, so there’s little chance of him continuing to pitch at such a lucky rate.  While the control is going to help keep him a usable WHIP option, a regression is certainly in his future.

Speaking of luck, he’s currently maintaining a LOB% of 79.7%, a number that is above average.  That would actually put him just outside the top ten, tied with Chris Carpenter for the eleventh best mark in the league.  Would anyone argue that it is a safe assumption that he is going to regress here?

Couple an increase number of base runners with a decline in the strand rate and it certainly would equate to an increased ERA.  Just how far of a fall that should be expected is tough to say, but I wouldn’t expect him to be able to maintain his current mark.

The bottom line is that we should not expect Hunter to continue to pitch the way he has thus far this season, it’s nearly impossible.  While he has been impressive, the peripherals scream regression coupled with a below average strikeout rate, meaning I wouldn’t necessarily lean on him in any format moving forward.

Does that make him unusable?  Absolutely not, but be careful with him.  Spot starts maybe, depending on the opponent, but not every time out.

What are your thoughts on Hunter?  Is he someone you trust for the remainder of 2009?

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