Which Injured NBA Superstar's Return Matters Most?
That rumble in the distance is real and undeniable.
The NBA landscape is about to change.
Some of the biggest superstars stolen from us by the injury bug are getting set to make their heroic returns. The two-way talent making its way back inside the lines is staggering, a six-player coalition of repeat All-Stars, two MVPs and a former Defensive Player of the Year.
All six can reverse their franchises' fortunes. Some will help secure playoff spots; others will significantly strengthen their teams' championship odds.
But not all of these returns will generate the same reading on the round-ball Richter scale. We have examined each player's individual and team situations to help determine which comeback carries the most importance.
Statistics matter for both the on-court ability and opportunity they display. All six of these players are stars, but they don't all carry the same load. Those shouldering a heavier burden will inherently have a greater impact upon their return.
Team success also plays a part in this discussion. There's a difference between bolstering a fringe playoff team and fitting in as the missing piece on a contender.
With the parameters in place, let's examine the most critical injury returns awaiting the basketball world.
6. Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls
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2014-15 Per-Game Averages: 18.4 PPG, 5.0 APG, 3.1 RPG, 49.6 TS%, 16.0 PER
Injury: Torn meniscus in right knee
Battling knee problems for the third straight year, Derrick Rose hasn't had the stats to back up his superstar billing.
His shooting percentages have plummeted, thanks either to a hesitation to attack or a stubbornness to prove himself as a long-range threat (or both). His average shot attempt has come a career-high 14.1 feet from the basket, while shots within three feet of the rim make up a career-low 26.2 percent of his total attempts.
That's why the former MVP sits this low on the list. The Chicago Bulls need him healthy to make a lengthy playoff run, but it has to be the prolific, efficient version. Right now, it still isn't clear if he'll be around to help with the stretch run.
Bulls general manager Gar Forman originally gave Rose a timetable of four to six weeks for his return, per Bulls.com's Sam Smith, but the point guard hasn't been nearly as direct. "Whenever I feel right, that's when I'm going to step back," Rose said, per ESPN Chicago's Jon Greenberg.
That's not very reassuring, and neither are his numbers.
But his good days are still some of the best the NBA has to offer (20 games with 20-plus points). And if he can string enough of them together, he could still help the Windy City do something special this season.
5. Dwight Howard, C, Houston Rockets
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2014-15 Per-Game Averages: 16.3 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 58.2 TS%, 18.1 PER
Injury: Edema in right knee
Dwight Howard still has a superhero's physique, but his stint as the NBA's Superman appears over. As tempting as it is to blame kryptonite, the Houston Rockets center has instead been plagued by simpler, real-world problems.
He hasn't averaged more than 18.3 points since a 2012 surgery to repair a herniated disk. And he hasn't made an appearance since Jan. 23 after undergoing a bone marrow aspirate injection in his right knee.
Even before being sidelined, he didn't look like himself. His rebounding was as low as it had been since his rookie season. His scoring and shot blocking had dipped to levels unseen since his sophomore campaign.
It's fair to wonder if Father Time crept up on the 29-year-old, but injuries certainly played a part in his decline. While he doesn't have a concrete date for his return yet, he does feel he has "a little bit more" explosiveness than he has all season, per Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle.
"Oh yeah. For sure," he said when asked if this is the strongest he's felt this year. "I don't think this season I had a time I felt really good on the floor."
Despite the nagging injuries, he's one of only five players averaging at least 16 points, 10 boards and a block. All three of those categories have some upward mobility if he can get his springs back.
But if Howard handles the defensive end while James Harden runs Houston's offense, the big guy won't have the two-way impact the four players in front of him have.
4. Paul George, SF, Indiana Pacers
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2013-14* Per-Game Averages: 21.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.5 APG, 55.5 TS%, 20.1 PER
Injury: Compound fracture in right leg
Two-time All-Star Paul George recently returned to the practice floor, but Indiana Pacers coach Frank Vogel says the swingman is "still a ways away" from seeing any game action, per Jeremiah Johnson of Fox Sports Indiana.
Frankly, there's no reason to rush the 24-year-old's return. Not only do the Pacers have to keep George's long-term health in mind, but they're also doing just fine without him. Indiana has an NBA-best .857 winning percentage since Feb. 1 and the second-highest point differential during that stretch (plus-9.1).
But if the seventh-seeded Pacers are going to make more than a one-and-done showing come playoff time, they'll need George to play a substantial role on both sides of the ball.
He's their best perimeter defender—if not their top stopper overall—and, despite the rust he's accumulated since that gruesome leg fracture in August, still their most reliable option as a go-to scorer. George Hill currently leads the team with 13.8 points per game, which ranks 80th across the entire league.
"The Pacers crave a scorer like no one else...and if [George] can regain his form quickly, the Pacers will start to feel whole again," wrote NBA.com's Shaun Powell. "But that's a big 'if.'"
That uncertainty is the reason George doesn't rank any higher here. But the potentially massive role he might play upon his return keeps him a few notches above the bottom.
3. Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
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2014-15 Per-Game Averages: 20.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.3 APG, 58.2 TS%, 21.3 PER
Injury: Left elbow sprain
Jimmy Butler's 2014-15 campaign has been the definition of a breakout season.
Through 55 games, the 25-year-old has already posted previous career highs in total points and assists. His player efficiency rating is more than six points ahead of his previous personal best (15.2 in 2012-13).
He can handle Chicago's toughest perimeter defensive assignment, and he has served as a focal point at the opposite end. The Bulls, who are 5-5 over their last 10 games, have a glaring need for his two-way ability on the wing.
But they'll need Butler's injured elbow to cooperate first.
"My ligament just has to heal and I’ve got to be able to move my left arm like I can move my right before I can get out there and do anything,” Butler said, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. "... I think this is a good time to get everything right that was nagging."
His timetable of three to six weeks will bring him back somewhere between late March and mid-April. Chicago can only hope for the optimistic end of that projection, with only a half-game lead on the fourth-seeded Toronto Raptors and a two-game advantage on the Washington Wizards.
Couple Butler's return with Rose's, and the Bulls have as much to gain from injury comebacks as any team in the league. But individually, two players are poised to have a greater impact on their respective clubs.
2. Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers
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2014-15 Per-Game Averages: 22.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 5.1 APG, 55.0 TS%, 23.1 PER
Injury: Staph infection in right elbow
The Los Angeles Clippers are struggling without All-Star forward Blake Griffin, and that should surprise no one.
After winning four of the first five games he missed, the Clippers are just 4-4 since. If there is anything stunning about those numbers, it's that they aren't even worse.
Having Griffin on the floor has meant the difference of 11.5 points per 100 possessions at the offensive end. While on-off splits can be misleading in some situations, this is not one of them. Griffin has been that good on that side of the ball.
Only seven players have a higher scoring average this season. Griffin's assists mark is the second best the NBA has seen from a player 6'10" or taller since 2006-07 (topped only by Joakim Noah's 5.4 per game last season).
Luckily, the Clippers may not have to tread water without Griffin for much longer. L.A.'s tilt with the Houston Rockets on March 15 is "a real possibility" for his return, per ESPN.com's Arash Markazi. And a green light from the medical staff will spawn a similar reaction from head coach Doc Rivers.
"A guy at his level, if they say he can play, he'll play whether we practice or not," Rivers said, per Markazi. "Once he's cleared and can play, it's not to test it out. It's more because they gave him clearance because of the infection."
Griffin has the talent to lift the fifth-seeded Clippers to something better. But the top player on this list is capable of having an impact few others in the entire league can replicate.
1. Kevin Durant, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
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2014-15 Per-Game Averages: 25.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 63.3 TS%, 27.8 PER
Injury: Surgery on right foot
A quick scan through Kevin Durant's resume highlights the type of top-shelf talent the Oklahoma City Thunder will unleash on the rest of the league at some point.
Still shy of his 27th birthday, Durant has already made six All-Star trips, captured four scoring titles and secured one MVP award.
He has battled a foot problem since suffering a Jones fracture in October, yet he still has a scoring average higher than every player not named Russell Westbrook, James Harden or LeBron James. Had he not been limited to a career-low 33.8 minutes per game, he might have thinned that field even further.
But he's only made 27 appearances on the season and none since Feb. 19. The Thunder are 18-9 when he plays this season and only 17-19 when he doesn't. He has not been re-evaluated since undergoing a second procedure on his surgically repaired right foot, per ESPN.com's Royce Young, but remains confident he will return yet this season.
"No doubt. I’m looking forward to returning this season," he said recently, per Anthony Slater of the Oklahoman. "No doubt. I’m not packing it in at all."
Durant is the most talented player on this list. The Thunder, with a healthy KD, a sizzling Russell Westbrook and a deeper supporting cast, might have the highest ceiling of any team represented here.
Add those two elements together, and it's easy to see Durant's impending return is the most important of any NBA superstar.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
