A Comprehensive Plan To Fix The Chicago Cubs

There are a lot of things wrong with the 2009 Chicago Cubs.

They’re an expensive team that had the hopes of Chicago riding on them repeating their regular season performance of 2008, in which they had the best record in baseball. Only this time, with the changes made by General Manager Jim Hendry, the post season results should have been different.

Well, those post-season results will be different…I guess. The Cubs will win just as many playoff games this year as they did in 2008; they just won’t have the opportunity to win any this time around.

Hendry’s approach last winter has been a complete failure from top to bottom. His swapping of Mark DeRosa for Milton Bradley and Aaron Miles imploded. The “new and improved” bullpen featuring Aaron Heilman and Kevin Gregg has been a laughing stock.

In fact, the only move he made that’s worked in any way was pure luck; he traded Jason Marquis (who became an All Star in Colorado) for nothing, and because of injuries, found Randy Wells hiding in the farm system.

So if we are going to construct an action plan moving forward to fix these Cubs, we need to look at where they have been, and how Hendry has built the club to where it is today.

Hendry took the reigns as General Manager in July of 2002, taking over a team that had a modest $75.7 million payroll. As you will see from the list below, that payroll number has grown almost every season since Hendry took over:

-         2010 – $122.700 (future obligations)

-         2011 – $96.300 (future obligations)

This exponential growth is nearly unparalleled in non-New York Yankee baseball.

In fact, if you look at the Boston Red Sox, who have won two World Series during Hendry’s tenure, their payroll has grown from $108 million to $121 million in 2009, with a peak of $143 million in 2007.

As perhaps a more distinct difference, let’s look at the St. Louis Cardinals’ payroll during Hendry’s tenure. It is as follows:

-         2010 – $50.340 (future obligations)

-         2011 – $44.190 (future obligations)

Can that be right?

The Cardinals, who like the Red Sox have won a championship during Hendry’s tenure, are playing with roughly 65 percent of the Cubs’ payroll; and are looking down six games at the more expensive roster? Really? And the Cardinals aren’t saddled with a $100 million-plus payroll obligation in 2010 or 2011 either.

The sad fact for Cubs fans is that Hendry has signed enough bad contracts that the Cardinals are in a substantially better financial position than the Cubs moving forward. With the crop of players becoming available to surround Albert Pujols over the next three to seven years, the Cardinals could be solid for the next decade.

But that shouldn’t cast an overwhelming shadow on the hopes of Cubs fans for the next decade. There are certainly ways to improve a ballclub and get out of a miserable funk in just one or two winters, despite the Cubs having drafted poorly since Hendry took over.

So, based on performance and contract length, what are some areas that the Cubs could improve in the next few seasons; and what are some areas that need to be addressed?

Unfortunately, Hendry has signed most of the current Cubs roster through 2010. The only significant players that won’t be back would be Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson and John Grabow. So few expiring contracts, coupled with such a high payroll obligation moving forward, is going to handicap either Hendry or his replacement if he gets the pink slip he deserves.

With the amount of money the Cubs have tied up in Alfonso Soriano, Milton Bradley and Kosuke Fukudome, there’s little reason to think the Cubs will be in the market for an outfielder this winter. Replacing Johnson could be as easy as fully promoting internal option Sam Fuld next year. He bats left handed, runs well, and most importantly has played well when called upon in major league action.

Replacing the pitchers that are leaving the books this winter could be trickier than it might appear though.

For all the hype that the NBA’s free agent class of 2010 is receiving, baseball should get some as well. After next season, names like Josh Beckett, Brandon Webb, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Javier Vazquez will all be free agents.

So that puts a tough decision on the shoulders of Cubs management. Do you sign a free agent to a lengthy, expensive deal this winter or hold the money bag for the big time pitchers the next winter?

That all depends on a number of factors.

There are a couple of pitchers becoming available this winter that might look nice at Wrigley Field. Former Anaheim teammates John Lackey and Jarrod Washburn might both be tempting, as might Brandon Backe, Brad Penny or Eric Bedard.

The other piece to consider when shopping for an arm this winter is that the Cubs will likely not be able to retain Ted Lilly after next season. If Lilly leaves, that would open up an additional $13 million for the Cubs to use towards one of the bigger name pitchers in 2011.

So there are some options, albeit expensive ones, that might play into the Cubs’ plans for 2010. In light of Lilly and Derrek Lee both having contracts that run out after 2010, I would be in favor of bringing in a veteran to make perhaps one final charge at October.

Another area of obvious need for the Cubs this winter will be their bullpen (again). This coming winter’s class of relief pitchers isn’t very deep, so adding depth might not be as easy.

If the Cubs are looking to add a closer, there aren’t many options at all. Other than Gregg, whom I would assume wouldn’t be invited back, there are only a couple of injury prone stars in Billy Wagner and Jose Valverde, as well as Mike Gonzalez that will be available.

There are some other relievers that have options that will need to be picked up, like Matt Thornton, Rafael Soriano and Ryan Franklin, but those players will likely be retained.

The bullpen options are limited, which is why I would entertain the idea of trading some of the Cubs younger players to acquire a bullpen arm. I recently brought up the idea of the Cubs talking to the White Sox about their closer, Bobby Jenks. That might be the best option for the Cubs moving forward, especially with regard to their salary cap status.

The other roster spot that needs to be addressed this winter is second base. Mike Fontenot and Miles have been a miserable failure, and the Cubs cannot have an offensive void in the middle of the diamond. There are some positive veteran options that could be available here.

As much as I hate beating the dead horse, DeRosa will be a free agent this winter and would certainly be welcomed home by the Cubs fans with open arms. He would be an ideal fit, providing depth all over the diamond as he did in 2008 and being a solid clubhouse presence as well.

Another option would be another player the Cubs passed on when adding Miles last winter – Orlando Hudson. He’s been solid for the Dodgers all year and could be a great fit in the second or sixth spot in the Cubs’ batting order.

Two other options at second base could be Felipe Lopez, or if his option isn’t picked up by San Francisco, Freddy Sanchez. 

The idea of playing Ryan Theriot at second and adding a shortstop has been floated by some, and that will likely be a topic of discussion this winter as well. The top candidates in free agency this winter to be Player B in that dialogue will be Marco Scutaro and Orlando Cabrera, neither of whom excites me.

Again, if I’m playing the role of GM, I’m going to do what I should have done last winter – offer a multi-year deal to Hudson. He bats left handed and makes things happen on the bases. He also plays great defense. As much as it would hurt to not bring back DeRosa, I think Hudson would be a better fit in the batting order.

There are other issues looming in the future of which the Cubs need to be coherent when making any moves this winter. The potential departures of Lilly and Lee could create problems heading to 2011 if the Cubs don’t position themselves to deal with those two losses appropriately.

The free agent class at first base that will surround Lee won’t be overwhelming, but there will certainly be teams out there that need a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman that can hit between 25 and 30 home runs. Only Lee, Paul Konerko and Carlos Pena will be available in the winter of 2011 to fill that niche.

I’ve already touched on the pitchers that could be around to replace Lilly, but there are some other names and positions the Cubs should pay attention to moving forward other than those that will be vacated by expiring contracts.

Geovany Soto has been an enormous disappointment in his sophomore season. After winning the Rookie of the Year award last year, he’s had a poor showing at the World Baseball Classic, during which time he apparently experimented with marijuana. He's been out of shape and out of sorts at the plate all season.

While Koyie Hill did a commendable job filling the void behind the plate for the month without Soto, the Cubs need to be aware that there are three catchers that could hit the market in 2011 that could make an impact on their roster.

Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer and AJ Pierzynski could all be a better offensive backstop than what Soto has provided this year.

Martinez might be seen as more of a potential replacement for Lee at first base than a catcher, but I would be inclined to see if Mauer hits the market and then sell the farm to get him to Wrigley. There would be an incredible bidding war, but Mauer’s certainly a once-in-a-generation player that’s worth the cost.

Soto might, if he rebounds to have a nice campaign in 2010, have enough value to help the Cubs as trade bait if a serious move is made to bring in a catcher like Mauer, Martinez or the hated Pierzynski.

The other two names I would keep an eye on would be outfielders Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, who both have contracts that expire after 2010, and would add the mix of power and speed the Cubs paid Soriano to provide (and haven’t seen from him since he signed the paper).

The final piece of the puzzle that I would explore to fix the Cubs would be to move one or two of the big contracts on the roster. There are going to be teams, like the Red Sox, that have payroll flexibility in the near future and needs to fill that might be intrigued by a player like Soriano or Carlos Zambrano.

Bob Warja recently wrote a nice piece backing an argument to move Zambrano, which I would agree with wholeheartedly.

Are the Cubs in good shape? No. Can they be improved? Certainly.

This organization needs a substantial overhaul, and I hope I have provided some ideas for the future, and pause to those ready to slam the panic button when considering the next few years.