Hunter Pence Injury Leaves Giants Further Behind the 8 Ball in Quest to Repeat

And so it starts.

Whatever it is that seems to keep the San Francisco Giants from even having an opportunity to defend their World Series championships a year after winning one has already kicked in. And while it is too soon to call it a completely devastating blow, it is already a ding to their chances.

All-Star right fielder Hunter Pence fractured his left forearm Thursday when he was hit by a pitch in a Cactus League game against the Chicago Cubs. The ball hit Pence just above the wrist, and the team announced he is expected to be out six to eight weeks.

“You hate to see it,” manager Bruce Bochy told reporters. “Unfortunately, these things do happen. The guys work so hard all winter. You hate to see it in the second game [Pence played].”

He did manage to extract a sliver of positivity from a dim day, however.

“The silver lining is that it’s early in spring training and at least we have a month to begin the healing process,” Bochy said.

With a month to go until Opening Day, Pence may miss only two weeks of the regular season. As of now, the worst-case scenario has him being out all of April.

Since the Philadelphia Phillies traded Pence to the Giants at the 2012 non-waiver deadline, he had played in 383 consecutive games for San Francisco—the longest current streak in the majors.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Recent history for broken or fractured forearms does not bode well for Pence’s quick return. In 2013, Curtis Granderson missed about 11 weeks with a similar injury after being hit by a pitch in late February and not returning to the lineup until May 14. But in 2011, Albert Pujols had a fairly similar wrist/forearm fracture and returned in two weeks, amazingly.

Pujols’ return was a bit freakish since the original diagnosis had him missing four to six weeks. So, to err on the side of caution, Pence is probably going to miss most of April.

The next step for the Giants is for Bochy and general manager Brian Sabean to meet and discuss options for replacing Pence. For now, they will go with all their internal options, meaning outfielders already in camp. San Francisco likely won't pursue a replacement on the trade market.

The Giants signed Nori Aoki in the offseason to play left field, but he has spent the overwhelming majority of his major league career in right field, including last season with the Kansas City Royals.

Aoki figured to compete with Gregor Blanco for playing time in left field, but if he shifts to right, Blanco would then likely find himself battling Juan Perez at the position. Blanco has been about an average offensive contributor in three seasons with the Giants (99 OPS-plus), but his strong defense has made him a two- to three-win player in that time, per FanGraphs.

The Giants could very well be OK with moving Aoki to right and giving left field to Blanco until Pence returns, as Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area suggested:

"

For all those asking about random trades and moves ... this is why the Giants have Gregor Blanco. And he plays RF at AT&T as well as anyone.

— Alex Pavlovic (@AlexPavlovic) March 6, 2015"

Perez offers little with the bat, but like Blanco, he can be a defensive asset in either corner spot. The Giants also have non-roster invitee Justin Maxwell, a player who lately has not offered much offensively or defensively.

This is also assuming Angel Pagan is healthy enough to play center field through the first month of the season. Over the past two seasons, Pagan has played in 167 games.

If Pence misses a couple of weeks, the Giants can navigate. If he misses a month or more, things get trickier for a team that was already expected to be light on offense with Pence in the lineup.

During the first two weeks of the season, the Giants play the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies 10 times. If Pence’s injury stretches through all of April, then the Giants get the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers—their biggest threats in the National League West—10 times.

And if Pence is out through early May, the first 10 days of that month bring the Los Angeles Angels, Padres and Miami Marlins, all potential playoff teams.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Last season, Pence hit .277/.332/.445 with 20 home runs and a 121 OPS-plus. He was worth a 3.6 WAR for Baseball-Reference and 4.7 via FanGraphs. Aside from Buster Posey, Pence was the team’s most valuable offensive player.

The Giants did virtually nothing to get better offensively during this past offseason. They lost Mike Morse in free agency (130 OPS-plus) and Pablo Sandoval the same way (111 OPS-plus). They replaced those two with Aoki (98 OPS-plus) and Casey McGehee (99 OPS-plus, league-leading 31 double plays grounded into).

On top of that, the team is hoping for second baseman Joe Panik to repeat a .305/.343/.368 rookie line, which he compiled through 287 plate appearances. ZiPS projects Panik to hit .264/.316/.344 with a 90 OPS-plus strung out for an entire season, per FanGraphs, making him a below-average offensive contributor.

"

W/ news of Pence's injury (ETA: May?), the #Giants rough offseason has barreled into spring training—and the regular season. Got offense?

— Jason Catania (@JayCat11) March 6, 2015"

Losing Pence for significant time, especially when the team faces that gantlet of postseason hopefuls in the first six weeks, is a crucial blow. The Giants, already facing an uphill fight a season after winning a third World Series in five years, cannot afford to fall too far behind the Dodgers or Padres.

When the Giants missed the playoffs in 2011, after winning everything in 2010, they lost the division by eight games. In 2013, after winning everything in 2012, they lost the division by 16.

This Pence injury could be the start of a similar Giants fate following their latest World Series run.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.