San Francisco 49ers: Pre-Free Agency Draft Big Board

When we last took a look at the San Francisco 49ers’ NFL draft big board, it was just after the Senior Bowl in January.  Obviously, a lot has happened since then, forcing a shuffling of the team's top needs.  That means it’s time to take a fresh look at the top of the 49ers' draft wish list and see whose stock has improved and whose has dropped since then.

The biggest event that happened between then and now, of course, is the NFL Scouting Combine.

Combine performances can be overrated at times, but it’s still an important metric for evaluating players.  It’s the only time NFL scouts have the opportunity to see all the draft candidates on the field at the same time doing roughly the same thing—it removes layers of scheme and coaching strategy from the equation, and allows them to see players on an even playing field.

Those 40-yard-dash times and positional drills are best used as a confirmation system.  If a player runs faster than expected, that’s a cue to go back to the tape and see if you missed something.  Sometimes, even the best scouts can miss something on first glance, and a combine performance can highlight a skill set that was ignored in the initial scouting process.  If a player runs slower than expected, it’s a cue to go back to the tape and re-evaluate his game-day speed.

Of course, sometimes going back to the film will simply re-affirm a scout’s initial evaluation, and that’s fine—footage of players actually playing football is the best way to evaluate them going forward.  It’s simply important to take note of the surprising performances and give those players a closer look over.

As a reminder, first we’ll look at the overall big board.  In theory, the players are ranked in the order that the 49ers would select them, were they all available.  Then, we’ll go position by position to take a closer look at the team’s options.

We’re listing 46 players, because the 49ers’ first two picks are in the first 46 selections of the draft.

Big Board

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

USC's Leonard Williams

Leonard Williams retains his spot atop the big board for now, even as he remains well out of San Francisco’s reach.  The top receivers remain the same, too, but there’s been some notable movement down below—Miami’s Philip Dorsett and UCF’s Breshad Perriman have seen their stock rise significantly, while players like Auburn’s Sammie Coats and Stanford’s Ty Montgomery have plummeted.

1. Leonard Williams, DE, USC (Last time: 1)
2. Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama (Last time: 2)
3. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia (Last time: 6)
4. DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville (Last time: 5)
5. Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon (Last time: 13)
6. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State (Last time: 9)
7. Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State (Last time: 10)
8. Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan (Last time: 7)
9. Dante Fowler Jr, DE/OLB, Florida (Last time: 8)
10. Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri (Last time: 15)
11. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State (Last time: 20)
12. Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State (Last time: 12)
13. Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska (Last time: 4)
14. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon (Last time: 14)
15. Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest (Last time: 24)
16. Jalen Collins, CB, LSU (Last time: 28)
17. Shane Ray, OLB, Missouri (Last time: 3)
18. Philip Dorsett, WR, Miami (FL) (Last time: NR)
19. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington (Last time: 19)
20. Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson (Last time: 11)
21. Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford (Last time: 41)
22. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa (Last time: 22)
23. Danny Shelton, DT, Washington (Last time: 21)
24. Nelson Agholor, WR, USC  (Last time: 37)
25. Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut (Last time: NR)
26. Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF (Last time: NR)
27. Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota (Last time: 16)
28. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE/OLB, UCLA (Last time: NR)
29. Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky (Last time: 34)
30. Malcom Brown, DT, Texas (Last time: 40)
31. Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin (Last time: 26)
32. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia (Last time: 35)
33. Landon Collins, S, Alabama (Last time: NR)
34. Cameron Erving, C, Florida State (Last time: NR)
35. Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (FL) (Last time: 31)
36. Trey Flowers, DE/OLB, Arkansas (Last time: 23)
37. Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia (Last time: NR)
38. T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh (Last time: 36)
39. Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State (Last time: 30)
40. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska (Last time: NR)
41. Denzel Perryman, ILB, Miami (FL) (Last time: 44)
42. La’el Collins, OT, LSU (Last time: 42)
43. Tre Jackson, OG, Florida State (Last time: NR)
44. Preston Smith, OLB, Mississippi State (Last time: NR)
45. Carl Davis, DT, Iowa (Last time: NR)
46. Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State (Last time: NR)

Dropped: Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn; AJ Cann, OG, South Carolina; Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington; Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma; Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford; Rashad Greene, WR, Florida State; Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State; Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M; Lorenzo Mauldin, DE/OLB, Louisville; Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana; Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon; Duke Johnson, RB, Miami (FL)

Quarterbacks

Associated Press

Florida State's Jameis Winston

6. Jameis Winston, Florida State
14. Marcus Mariota, Oregon

I was impressed by Winston’s performance, both on and off the field at the NFL Scouting Combine. 

In his interviews, he sounded mature and repentant for some of the sins of his past.  In footage on NFL Network, he seemed knowledgeable and in command of a wide variety of schematics and play-calling systems.  During drills, he was precise and accurate in his footwork and flashed a powerful arm.  All in all, he convinced me he is a top-level quarterback prospect—rather than just the top quarterback in a weak class.

All this, of course, is somewhat moot for the 49ers.  While they need someone to back up Colin Kaepernick in 2015, neither Winston nor Mariota are likely to fall to the 15th pick—and, in fact, were one to fall, the 49ers would be better off trading back for a king’s ransom to an actual quarterback-needy team.

I feel that both Winston and Mariota might have more potential than Kaepernick does at this point, but Kaepernick plus a first-round draft choice at another position is miles better than just having Winston or Mariota.

Running Backs

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah

31. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
32. Todd Gurley, Georgia
40. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska

With none of the running backs having huge standout days at the combine, the one I was most impressed with was Ameer Abdullah. 

He showed some shocking lateral quickness and explosion, finishing with top results in the shuttle, three-cone drill and vertical and broad jumps.  His 4.6-second 40-yard dash is concerning, certainly, but he plays faster than that on tape. 

Abdullah is an interesting candidate for the 49ers in the second round, though there will likely be similarly talented players there who fit needs better for the team.  It’s enough to put him at the bottom of the wish list as an interesting counter to Carlos Hyde’s style.

Conversely, I have Melvin Gordon ranked a little lower than I did a month ago, although he’s still my top running back in the class.  His 4.52-second 40-yard dash is better than Abdullah’s, but it was still disappointing from him. 

Unlike Abdullah, Gordon didn’t have the fantastic other drills to make up for it somewhat.  He’s still faster and has the better body of work, so if the 49ers could have any running back, he’d be the choice—he’s just no longer quite as high as I had him before.

Receivers

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Miami's Phillip Dorsett

2. Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
3. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
4. DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
7. Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
8. Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
10. Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Michigan
12. Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
18. Philip Dorsett, WR, Miami (FL)
24. Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
26. Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
27. Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
46. Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas State

Why yes, I do still believe the 49ers should draft a wide receiver or two, and that’s why six of the top 10 players on the big board are receivers.  Couple the need with relative scarcity at 3-4 defensive end, offensive guard and tight end, and you have a pretty clear optimal outcome for the 49ers in the first round.

Frankly, any draft which has the 49ers come away with none of the top 10 receivers in the class has to be considered something of a disaster.  They can probably get away with taking one in the second round if they must—Philip Dorsett and his 4.33 40-yard dash really caught my attention during the combine, and his 24.2 yards per reception in 2014 is definitely what the 49ers need, for example. 

I think it’s possible to get too cute at the position when trying to find value, so ideally, they’ll end up with one of the top three, but there are options in Round 2 if they choose to go with someone like Arik Armstead at pick 15.

The team could really use a stud tight end to eventually replace Vernon Davis, but the tight ends in this class were definitely underwhelming. 

Maxx Williams remains the only tight end on the list, and frankly, none of the tight ends really wowed me at the combine.  Williams' lack of raw athleticism has dropped him from a borderline Round 1 pick for the 49ers to a possibility in Round 2, but only if all the receivers are gone.

Offensive Line

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Iowa's Brandon Scherff

21. Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
22. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
34. Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
35. Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (FL)
38. T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
42. La’El Collins, OT, LSU
43. Tre Jackson, OG, Florida State

If I were fully convinced that Brandon Scherff would move back inside to guard and be fine, he’d be higher on my rankings and my top offensive lineman available.  He’d be in my top 10, just ahead of Jameis Winston. I’m just not fully sold on the position change; I think he fits more as a right tackle in the NFL. 

The 49ers do need a guard, they don’t really need a tackle—he’s rated this high on pure talent alone.  If the 49ers front office is confident he can move back to guard in the NFL, he should be considered with the first-round pick.

The highest I have a “true” guard, then, is Tre Jackson at Florida State.  A three-year starter at Florida State, he fits the part a little bit better than Scherff, though Scherff is pretty clearly the better overall player. 

Really, this draft is heavy on tackles, with no real elite guard prospects.  I could see the 49ers taking Jackson in the second round if they’re happy with a first-round receiver—but not much more than that.

Defensive Ends

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Oregon's Arik Armstead

1. Leonard Williams, DE, USC
5. Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
9. Dante Fowler Jr, DE/OLB, Florida
28. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, 4-3 DE, UCLA
36. Trey Flowers, DE/OLB, Arkansas

Defensive end and outside linebacker have seen the most fluctuation since my first big board came out.  Now that it’s confirmed the 49ers will remain in a 3-4 front, some players' value has dropped since they don't quite fit the scheme.  

This is why Trey Flowers dropped so much, for example—he’s not going to work at all as a 3-4 defensive end.  I still like his overall talent, and that of Fowler and Odighizuwa, but they’re not going to be replacements for Justin Smith in the long run.

There are only two true 3-4 ends on this big board, then, and both of them hit the 49ers’ top five.  Honestly, Leonard Williams might fit better as a 4-3 defensive tackle, but he is more than capable of playing end, and is the best overall talent in the draft anyway. 

Williams will be long gone before the 49ers pick, so Arik Armstead is pretty much the only 3-4 end the 49ers should consider with their first two picks.  He’s raw, but incredibly talented.  If Justin Smith comes back for one more season, Armstead can learn and be moved into the starting lineup in 2016.

Defensive Tackles

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Texas' Malcom Brown

23. Danny Shelton, Washington
30. Malcom Brown, Texas
39. Eddie Goldman, Florida State
45. Carl Davis, Iowa

It’s too bad the 49ers aren’t in need of a defensive tackle, because there are quite a few talented ones high in this year’s draft class.  With Ian Williams and Glenn Dorsey already on the roster, defensive tackle would be a luxury selection or the team, but if one of them drops unexpectedly, the 49ers could get some value.

Malcom Brown, for instance, has been a bit of a riser for me.  He turned in a solid combine performance, putting up better numbers than Danny Shelton.  I still have Shelton ahead of him based on his body at work at Washington, but Brown’s combine showed surprising quickness and agility for someone of his size (5'11", 224 lbs).

The player here who comes closest to filling a need, however, is Iowa’s Carl Davis.  Of the top four tackles, he has the best chance to kick out and be effective at defensive end; he’s the closest to ideal size, standing at 6’5”, a full three inches taller than Shelton or Brown. 

The three players I have ahead of Davis are more talented, so as a defensive tackle, he falls down a bit.  If the 49ers think he could move outside, however, he becomes intriguing.

Linebackers

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Virginia's Eli Harold

13. Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
17. Shane Ray, OLB, Missouri
20. Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
29. Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
37. Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia
41. Denzel Perryman, ILB, Miami (FL)
47. Preston Smith, OLB, Mississippi State

The linebackers saw some of their value drop as it became clear the 49ers would stick with a 3-4 defense.  Many of the outside linebackers, including Randy Gregory and Shane Ray, could serve equally well as 4-3 defensive ends. 

If the 49ers were switching fronts, it would be a major need.  As it is, however, the 49ers are more set with Aldon Smith and Aaron Lynch at outside linebacker—a player could be added for insurance, but maybe not with a tremendously high draft pick.  That explains why Gregory and Ray dropped so much—they’re still talented players, but the need isn’t there as much.

A player moving up on the list is Eli Harold from Virginia.  When you can run a 4.6 40-yard dash at 247 pounds and put up phenomenal times in the shuttle drills and impressive jump totals, you’re flashing an explosiveness and power that is very enticing. 

The raw speed is appealing—you’d expect a 247-pound player to run more in the 4.8 range.  With everyone talking up Bud Dupree’s phenomenal combine—and he definitely had one, make no mistake—it’s easy to overlook how Harold performed at the combine.  He’s someone to look for if he hangs around into Round 2.

Defensive Backs

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Connecticut's Byron Jones

11. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15. Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
16. Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
19. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
25. Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut
33. Landon Collins, S, Alabama

Before the combine, Marcus Peters was my top-ranked cornerback.  However, he looked very rusty in Indianapolis, not showing the same spark he had at Washington.  The fact that he was booted off of the team, and thus has not been practicing in a structured team environment, had to have hurt him somewhat. 

As it is, his poor showing combined with the attitude issues that got him kicked out of Washington have me concerned, slipping three cornerbacks ahead of him.

I debated also sliding Byron Jones ahead of him, though ultimately decided to postpone that.  Jones wasn’t on my big board last time I did this, but he was a top performer in every single drill at the combine, including breaking the world record in the broad jump. 

Doing all of this while recovering from labrum surgery makes it even more impressive.  Jones' injury concerns and difficulty changing direction keep him from being a first-round pick, but anyone with those raw physical talents can find a place in the NFL.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him at @BryKno on Twitter.