2009 Draft Signings: Not Many Big Surprises After All

Despite all the hype, there were few big surprises after all in the contracts the 2009 first round draftees received.

Stephen Strasburg ultimately signed for about $15.1 million guaranteed, which is right around where I thought the contract should be.  Both Strasburg and the Nationals have plenty to be happy about.  Strasburg received the richest contract for a draftee ever, and the Nationals paid an amount very much in line with past top amateur talent signings.

The previous high signing bonus was Mark Prior’s $10.5 million contract in 2001.  Adjusted for inflation over the last eight years, Prior’s contract is now worth about $12.75 million.  Paying Strasburg an extra $2.3 million on top of that is not excessive when one considers that Strasburg’s college numbers were clearly better than Prior’s.

No. 2 pick Dustin Ackley signed for a guaranteed $7.5 million on a contract that could bring him as much as $9.5 million.  Ackley was also represented by Scott Boras, who argued that Ackley was comparable to Mark Teixeira, who signed a $9.5 million contract in 2001 as the No. 5 pick.

Mark Teixeira’s stats from his last year of college are a little more impressive than Ackley’s.  However, Ackley was widely considered the best hitting prospect in the 2009 Draft, and taking into account inflation, last year’s signing bonuses and the impact of having Stephen Strasburg at the top raising the tide for everyone else, Ackley’s final contract with the Mariners is no surprise.

No. 3 pick Donovan Tate signed with the Padres for $6.25 million, roughly what last year’s No. 5 pick Buster Posey received from the Giants as college baseball’s best hitter of 2008.  Tate is a high school player, who was prepared to play both baseball and football at USC, so he had a lot of leverage to get the contract he did.

The only really big surpise is that the Tigers gave No. 9 pick Jacob Turner $5.5 million guaranteed.  Turner is a high school pitcher, who apparently went as low as he did because he was expected to make exorbitant salary demands. He was represented by Scott Boras.

The Giants, A’s and Twins top picks (respectively, high school pitcher Zack Wheeler, college shortstop Grant Green, and college pitcher Kyle Gibson) all held out until shortly before the deadline and got large, but not wildly excessive bonuses.  The Giants paid Zack Wheeler, the sixth pick, $3.3 million, which doesn’t surprise me, given that the Giants are generally pretty generous with their top picks.  Green (13th pick) signed for $2.75 million, and Gibson (22nd pick) signed for $1.8 million.

The only first round picks who did not sign are No. 12 pick Aaron Crow, No. 14 pick Matt Purke, and No. 30 pick LeVon Washington.  Purke and Washington are both high school players who will apparently play college ball next year.  Aaron Crow has until a week before the June 2010 draft to reach an agreement with the Royals.

The Royals have reportedly offered Crow a contract in the neighborhood of $3 million, which is right around what the players drafted around him signed for.  As I’ve said before, Crow has no leverage, having sat out one year already (he pitched minimally in an Independant A league last Fall and this Spring).  At some point, the Royals will set a deadline, and Crow will be forced to accept the Royals’ offer, whatever it may be, unless he’s complete fool.