San Francisco 49ers' Final Free-Agency Outlook and Predictions
What do we really know about the San Francisco 49ers post-Jim Harbaugh?
What do we really know about the new coaches? We know their names—Jim Tomsula (the head coach), Eric Mangini (the defensive coordinator) and Geep Chryst (the offensive coordinator). We don’t know what type of offense they intend to run or what type of blocking scheme they intend to teach or what players they intend to feature.
But we do know general manger Trent Baalke. We understand his vision for building a team. We’ve watched him work since 2010, and we know his tendencies. We know the moves he likes to make, sometimes moves other general managers might be afraid to try.
Based on all we know about Baalke and the little we know about his new coaching staff, here’s a prediction of what the 49ers will do in free agency.
The 49ers Will Sign Darnell Dockett
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Baalke is proud of the 49ers' defensive line and linebackers—the front seven. He has built the 49ers around those players since he became the general manager.
When Baalke feels particularly optimistic about an upcoming season, he probably envisions the Niners front seven smashing into running backs and quarterbacks behind the line of scrimmage. That’s what happened in 2012 and 2013 when the 49ers had the best front seven in the NFL.
It could be one of the best front sevens in 2015 if certain things fall into place: Aldon Smith stays out of trouble and works hard during the offseason program; NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis play as well post-surgery as they did pre-surgery; and Justin Smith doesn’t retire. If those things happen, the 49ers front seven should be very good.
But there’s a hole in the group.
Ray McDonald is gone. He was a key member of the defensive line the past four seasons, an excellent run defender and a solid all-around player. Baalke must replace him.
Monday night ESPN reported the 49ers had a scheduled visit with former Arizona Cardinals defensive lineman Darnell Dockett (h/t NFL.com). He’s about the same size as McDonald (6'4", 276 lbs). But Dockett (6’4”, 293 lbs) has 40.5 sacks in his career, and McDonald has 19.5.
Dockett would be an upgrade over McDonald. The 49ers will sign him.
The 49ers Will Sign a Running Back Not Named Frank Gore
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The 49ers offense no longer fits Frank Gore.
Based on the murmurs made by Baalke, owner Jed York and the new coaching staff, the Niners offense may feature a quarterback-centered running game next season to accommodate Colin Kaepernick’s unique skill set. That would mean a lot of pistol and shotgun formations, read-option plays and zone-blocking schemes. Think the Washington Redskins offense before Robert Griffin III tore up his knee in 2013.
Gore does not fit that style of offense. He’s at his best in an I-formation, patiently following a fullback and a pulling guard through a hole. It’s what Gore has done since he played Pop Warner as a kid.
Carlos Hyde fits a zone-read offense. That’s what he ran at Ohio State. So the Niners have one running back who fits their new offense, and they need a second.
They signed Rugby League star Jarryd Hayne on Monday presumably to play running back, per the Mercury News' Cam Inman. Hayne (6'2", 220 lbs) is a little lighter and a little faster than Hyde (6'0", 235 lbs), but he never has played football. If he makes the team next season, he probably will make the 49ers’ practice squad.
Someone with a better chance of sticking would be free-agent running back Roy Helu Jr. Helu played the first four seasons of his career for the Redskins, and the Niners recently hired the Redskins’ offensive line coach, Chris Foerster. Helu would be familiar with Foerster’s running game. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 11.4 yards per catch last season.
The 49ers Will Sign Perrish Cox to a 1-Year Deal
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Perrish Cox played for the veteran minimum last season.
He got cut three times the season before—once by the 49ers and twice by the Seattle Seahawks.
Even though he started 14 games and intercepted five passes for the 49ers last season, no team is likely to give him a long, lucrative contract.
He runs a 4.56 40-yard dash—slow for a cornerback. Teams tend to pay for faster cornerbacks. That works out great for the 49ers. They should be able to re-sign Cox for a relatively cheap one-year deal and then draft someone to replace him 2016.
That could be someone like Oregon cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Pundits projected teams would draft him in the first round of the upcoming draft, but he tore his ACL in December. Now, teams are projected to draft him in the third or fourth round. He could “redshirt” his rookie season while Cox is still the starter and then start in 2016 when Cox leaves.
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The 49ers Will Keep Jonathan Martin for Now
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Baalke must have done a big favor for Jim Harbaugh when he traded for Jonathan Martin.
Martin played under Harbaugh at Stanford. Martin is Harbaugh’s guy, but he’s not Baalke’s guy.
Martin isn’t the prototypical Baalke lineman. Baalke likes powerful offensive linemen, linemen who do the pushing. Martin gets pushed. He’s weak. He has to go.
But the Niners don’t have a replacement for him. Martin plays both right tackle and left tackle. He’s a swing tackle, and swing tackles are expensive and hard to find, even if they aren’t very good. Free agency is not the time to replace Martin. If the Niners try, they’ll end up with someone worse and more expensive.
The Niners have to hang on to Martin until the draft—until they spend their first-round pick on Stanford offensive tackle Andrus Peat. Peat can play tackle or guard. He can start at guard his rookie season and replace Mike Iupati. Then he can play right tackle if Anthony Davis gets hurt. Peat also can replace Joe Staley at left tackle when Staley retires.
The 49ers will cut Martin once they draft Peat.
The 49ers Will Not Sign an Expensive Veteran Wide Receiver
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Things would be different if Harbaugh were still the head coach.
Harbaugh didn’t like playing young receivers in his offense. He preferred veterans, so Baalke got him veterans. If Harbaugh was still the coach, we could expect Baalke to sign someone like Randall Cobb or Torrey Smith.
But Harbaugh is history, and so is his wide receivers coach, John Morton, who never developed a young receiver on the 49ers. The 49ers fired Morton, and he is still unemployed.
Adam Henry is San Francisco's new wide receivers coach. At LSU, Henry helped develop Jarvis Landry and Rookie of the Year Odell Beckham Jr.
Henry is the real deal. Baalke will draft a wide receiver Henry can mold, someone in the second round—someone like Devin Smith from Ohio State or Sammie Coates from Auburn.
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