1 Game Every College Football Hot-Seat Coach Must Win in 2015
When a coach is on the hot seat, he needs more than one win to save his job. Will Muschamp beat Georgia last season, but that wasn't enough for him to stay at Florida.
Still, certain games are more important than others. Even if they meet their preseason wins quota, coaches must prove they can beat salient competition. If all their wins come against Sun Belt teams, their "progress" is a mirage.
The seven head coaches that follow—derived from my list of hot seat coaches from February—all face at least one game of added urgency next season, at least one game they have to win for job security.
Why are those games so important? In some cases, it concerned the opponent: a team each coach must prove it can beat. In some cases, it concerned the schedule: a pivotal spot in the season. But in all cases, it concerned each coach either meeting or exceeding expectations.
Sound off below and let us know what you think.
Tim Beckman, Illinois
1 of 7
Must-Win Game: vs. Northwestern (Nov. 28)
Last year Beckman saved his job with a 47-33 win at Northwestern in the regular-season finale. The score is a touch inflated (Northwestern didn't have its starting quarterback), but winning that battle of 5-6 teams put the Illini in their first bowl since 2011.
Next year Illinois could face a similar situation. Assuming it beats Kent State, Western Illinois and Middle Tennessee out of conference—the third of which is harder than it sounds—it would need just three more wins to make a bowl game. Here is the rest of its schedule:
- at North Carolina (Sept. 19)
- vs. Nebraska (Oct. 3)
- at Iowa (Oct. 10)
- vs. Wisconsin (Oct. 24)
- at Penn State (Oct. 31)
- at Purdue (Nov. 7)
- vs. Ohio State (Nov. 14)
- at Minnesota (Nov. 21)
- vs. Northwestern (Nov. 28)
Can Illinois win two of those games pre-Northwestern? It should get the job done at Purdue, and hopefully pull a small upset at North Carolina or Iowa or home to Nebraska. In that case, beating the Wildcats would again decide if Beckman makes a bowl game.
And that's the only way he keeps his job.
Larry Fedora, North Carolina
2 of 7
Must-Win Game: vs. South Carolina (Sept. 3)
Too early? Maybe. But Larry Fedora needs to make a statement—and, more to the point, he needs to make a statement early.
Check out North Carolina's first-half/second-half splits since 2013:
| First 6 Games | Next 7 Games | |
| Record | 3-9 | 10-4 |
UNC lost the regular-season opener 27-10 at South Carolina two years ago—but that South Carolina team was a different animal.
The 2015 Gamecocks will not struggle as badly as last year's squad, but they won't win 11 games and contend for a conference title, either. In short, they're a team Fedora's Tar Heels can beat on a neutral field.
A team Fedora's Tar Heels need to beat on a neutral field.
Al Golden, Miami
3 of 7
Must-Win Game: vs. Georgia Tech (Nov. 21)
There are multiple must-win games on Al Golden's 2015 schedule. A home date with Nebraska September 19 doesn't count toward ACC play but matters after losing to the Huskers 41-31 last season.
Still, the home game with Georgia Tech at the end of November stands out. If enough things go right for Miami, beating the Yellow Jackets would get it to the ACC Championship Game. If not enough things go right for Miami, beating the Yellow Jackets would salvage its season.
Either way, Golden needs that win.
Georgia Tech hosted the Canes last season and beat them 28-17. It rushed for 318 yards on 65 carries, averaging fewer than five yards per attempt but still getting the job done on the ground.
"They got too many yards inside, too many yards inside between out tackles, and mike," Golden told reporters after the game. "We never got them off-track from that standpoint."
They'll need to do better in Coral Gables.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Mike London, Virginia
4 of 7
Must-Win Game: vs. Boise State (Sept. 25)
For the second consecutive season, Virginia has saddled Mike London with a brutal hot-seat schedule. And this year's is even harder.
Assuming the Wahoos lose at UCLA in Week 1, home to Notre Dame in Week 2 and beat William & Mary in Week 3, they would enter the Boise State game 1-2. Beating the Broncos would get them back to .500 before ACC play, along with giving them a win over the Fiesta Bowl champion. Losing to the Broncos would sink them to 1-3.
Suffice it to say, London cannot start next year 1-3. No matter how hard the schedule, that would put him on the "Danger of a Midseason Firing" list. And it's not like Virginia's fifth game—a road trip to Pittsburgh—provides an easy ACC opener.
It would likely be an underdog once again.
Paul Rhoads, Iowa State
5 of 7
Must-Win Game: vs. Iowa (Sept. 12)
Iowa State reclaimed the Cy-Hawk Trophy in 2014, and one could argue it's the biggest reason Paul Rhoads stayed off the hot seat.
He will need a repeat performance in 2015, although beating the Hawkeyes will not be the end of his job. After making three bowls in four seasons, Iowa State has gone 5-19 the past two years, devolving into flotsam at the bottom of the Big 12 standings.
Losing to Iowa at the start of next season would put the Cyclones on the wrong track in a must-have year for Rhoads. Beating it, however, would put them on the right track heading into a tricky game at Toledo. With Northern Iowa in Week 1 and Kansas in Week 4, wins over Iowa and Toledo could realistically propel ISU to a 4-0 start.
Losses could seal Rhoads' fate.
Willie Taggart, South Florida
6 of 7
Must-Win Game: at Navy (Oct. 31)
Here is how South Florida opens next season:
- vs. Florida A&M (Sept. 5)
- at Florida State (Sept. 12)
- at Maryland (Sept. 19)
- vs. Memphis (Oct. 2)
- vs. Syracuse (Oct. 10)
- at UConn (Oct. 17)
- vs. SMU (Oct. 24)
- at Navy (Oct. 31)
- at East Carolina (Nov. 7)
More likely than not, the Bulls will beat Florida A&M, lose their next four games, and then beat UConn and SMU. Perhaps they upset Maryland (highly unlikely), Memphis (unlikely) or Syracuse (slightly unlikely), but even then they would start the season 2-3, and then gain momentum against last year's AAC bottom-dwellers.
USF needs to beat Navy because Navy falls in the decisive part of its schedule. If it wins, it takes a three-game winning streak and a .500 record (or better) to East Carolina. If it loses, it failed to seize momentum and heads to ECU at risk of dropping its fifth or sixth game.
Willie Taggart has dropped 18 of his first 24 games at USF and cannot afford to lose so many, so quickly, in 2015.
Kevin Wilson, Indiana
7 of 7
Must-Win Game: vs. Rutgers (Oct. 17)
Indiana needs a fifth win. It neeeeeds a fifth win. After a 4-8 season in 2014, a fifth win would be progress—the same way that after a 4-8 season in 2012, a fifth win in 2013 helped Kevin Wilson keep his job.
The Hoosiers stand a good chance of starting 4-0. They open the season with Southern Illinois, Florida International, Western Kentucky and Wake Forest. Of course, this is Indiana football, and so nothing should be assumed; Bowling Green beat the Hoosiers just last season. But for the time being, let's assume they start 4-0.
Where do they find their fifth win?
- vs. Ohio State (Oct. 3)
- at Penn State (Oct. 10)
- vs. Rutgers (Oct. 17)
- at Michigan State (Oct. 24)
- vs. Iowa (Nov. 7)
- vs. Michigan (Nov. 14)
- at Maryland (Nov. 21)
- at Purdue (Nov. 28)
A home date with Iowa and a road trip to Purdue might also result in wins, but the Rutgers game comes first and is thus the most important. If IU beats the Scarlet Knights, it would play those Iowa and Purdue games with a chance to become bowl eligible for the second time since 1994, i.e., the second time in 22 seasons!
"At some point, even at Indiana, one must reach a bowl game," wrote Ty Duffy of The Big Lead in January.
Wilson has arrived at that point.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
