Texans Should Re-Sign Ryan Mallett, Look to Trade Ryan Fitzpatrick

As I discussed last week, free agency almost never yields an actual quarterback solution. However, there's a time for discussing theory and a time for discussing reality. The reality for the Houston Texans is that, barring a surprise draft-day slide or trade up for Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, they won't have a highly regarded quarterback as the opening-day starter. That ship sailed in the 2014 draft, and it's time to give it a Vikings funeral and put it out of our mind. 

What the Texans can do, however, is put the position in the hands of the untested. By letting players without much NFL experience operate the offense, there's at least a slight chance that untapped potential exists and can be mined by head coach Bill O'Brien. Ergo, I think the best possible option for the Texans is to enter the season with three mostly new quarterbacks and play the situation by ear. Perhaps development can happen, and perhaps one of these quarterbacks can boost their stock enough so that we won't need to have this discussion anymore. 

My wish list for the Texans at quarterback is as follows:

1. Re-sign Ryan Mallett, if it can be done cheaply

While I am personally not a believer, I do think Mallett offers the best combination of NFL traits and familiarity with O'Brien's offense the Texans will find in free agency. He also produced some pretty statistics against Cleveland, as well as a dud against Cincinnati. I've seen the latter game downplayed because of the torn pectoral Mallett suffered in the game, but barring any evidence of when that actually happened, I'm not inclined to forget how poor he looked. 

The Texans, obviously, have been browbeating the message that they want Mallett back into the media. I think he's more Matt Flynn than an actual solution, but unless the Texans can find two quarterbacks they want to draft, I'm fine with giving him a shot to prove me wrong. 

The key words here are "if it can be done cheaply." If someone wants to value Mallett in the $8 million a year range because they value his potential, I wish them the best of the luck. So far, I've only seen the Jets mentioned as suitors outside of Houston, but some front offices do like to lie in the weeds and pounce. 

I think a fair contract for Mallett is something in the two-year, $12 million range. If the Texans need to involve theoretical dollar figures Mallett won't ever see in years three or four, that's fine. But I'd want to structure the contract so that most of the guarantees are done by then. 

Year	Base Salary	Bonus	Roster Bonus	Dead Money
2015	$3 million	$1 million	n/a	$6 million
2016	$4 million	$1 million	n/a	$5 million
2017	$6 million	$1 million	$2 million	$2 million
2018	$6 million	$1 million	n/a	$1 million

2. Trade Ryan Fitzpatrick

After posting the worst quarterback DYAR of any player not named Blake Bortles, Josh McCown just got three years and $14 million. With at least $6.25 million guaranteed. While being chased by multiple teams. This is a thing that actually happened. 

This bizarre bidding war sparked an idea in my mind. Say there was a theoretical quarterback who finished 13th in Football Outsiders DVOA last season. Say this quarterback had only one year at a $3.875 million cap number. Would this be a quarterback teams would be falling over themselves to acquire when the other options are Mark Sanchez and Brian Hoyer?

If you read the sub-header, you know I'm referring to Ryan Fitzpatrick. While Fitzpatrick had some ugly blowups along the way, O'Brien managed to get some value out of him. And a way the Texans could get even more value out of him? Trading him to the market that seems desperate for anyone who can actually throw a football. 

I wouldn't come into this with high hopes. The Texans got a sixth-rounder for Matt Schaub last year, and I think that'd be more than fair compensation for Fitzpatrick. But who knows what's available out there? What kind of desperation is there to exploit?  

True, the Texans would lose some form of security blanket by dealing Fitzpatrick. But that's the whole point of my plan: To realize some untapped value at the quarterback position, you have to get rid of the known quantities. And despite Fitzpatrick's—I'll go with "functional"—play at quarterback last season, he is very much a known mediocrity at this point in his career.

And if known bad quarterbacks command $6.25 million in guarantees, what is one who is mediocre and costs roughly half that worth?

3. Draft a quarterback

In the theoretical world where these things happen, the Texans would head into the offseason with Mallett and 2014 fourth-round pick Tom Savage at quarterback. If that makes you recoil, hey, that's the risk of gambling on upside.

Trading Fitzpatrick opens up another roster spot to be spent at quarterback, and while there's not a super sleeper available, I think there are some guys the Texans could spend a pick on and try to develop. 

Player	College	NFLDS Rank	NFLDS Proj. Round	Matt Miller Rank
Brett Hundley	UCLA	41	2	70
Garrett Grayson	Colorado St.	104	3-4	141
Bryce Petty	Baylor	117	3-4	99

I think each of these three Day 2 options has a little upside for O'Brien to reach. UCLA's Brett Hundley is one of the most exciting players to watch in the NCAA, and I think he has ideal physical tools for O'Brien's taste. Baylor's Bryce Petty strikes me as someone able to reach a Schaub ceiling in an optimal outcome. I have not watched as much of Colorado State's Garrett Grayson, so I won't pretend like I have a good read on his pro prospects. But people who watch college football more intently than I do seem to have a thing for him.

I know my plan doesn't end with the ultimate goal for the Texans: There is no guarantee of a franchise quarterback here. But given what O'Brien did with limited quarterbacking last season, I have some optimism in his ability to develop a signal-caller. Thus, I'm not as worried about finding a sure thing right now.

With this idea, you have three potential solutions. If one doesn't work out, you still have two potential solutions. If all three bust out, well, you're probably at least in the right position to draft a potential franchise quarterback again. 

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here.

 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South Lead Writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.