Is Junichi Tazawa Worth Considering for Fantasy Owners?

With Junichi Tazawa currently filling a spot in the Red Sox rotation, fantasy owners have to be asking themselves whether he is worth the gamble or not.  Like most rookie pitchers he has proved to be very inconsistent with one solid and one pretty ugly start under his belt, though neither have lasted more than five innings long.

We have all heard about his minor league numbers, combining to go 9-7 with a 2.55 ERA and 94 K over 109.1 innings between Double and Triple-A this season, his first year of professional baseball.  At just 22-years old, however, it is certainly possible that he just isn’t ready for the rigors of the Major Leagues.

Over his first three outings he’s averaged right around 90 mph on the gun, a number that is average for a major league pitcher.  It has led to a pedestrian 6.17 K/9, a very believable number based on his minor league statistics.  While he may develop into more of a strikeout pitcher in time, he certainly isn’t there yet.

He had shown tremendous control in the minor leagues, with a 2.23 BB/9, but that hasn’t translated to the majors yet, currently with a 3.86 BB/9.  Maybe it has to do with major league hitters being able to lay off his split fingered fastball, but it certainly is something that needs to be addressed. 

Without overpowering stuff, he needs to have great control and not give up too many free passes or he is going to get himself into trouble.

Over his brief 11.2 innings major league career he has been rather unlucky, posting a .376 BABIP.  There’s no way that you should expect that number to continue, so there is hope.

With a decrease there and if he can improve his control, he certainly should see a drop in his ugly 1.97 WHIP.

During his minor league stint he posted a FB% of 39.3 percent, so it’s easy to say that his 50.0 percent flyball rate over his brief major league stint is a little bit inflated.  It has helped lead to a 2.31 HR/9, a number that is not going to continue. 

Obviously, no one should have expected him to be able to maintain his 0.59 HR/9 from the minor leagues, but this type of inflation is well out of line.  Look for him to start keeping the ball in the ballpark a bit more, in turn helping his ERA.

Tazawa has a strong offense behind him, but in what is an extremely small sample size has already proven to be a prototypical rookie pitcher.  If you are in contention and your ERA and WHIP are in big-time battles for points, he’s never going to be worth the gamble no matter who he’s facing.  He also doesn’t seem likely to garner you any significant help in Ks.

Basically, the only way I’d consider using him, even in just a pitch-or-ditch scenario, is if I’m looking for a boost in wins.  Otherwise, the risk of him doing damage, even with the signs of him improving, are just too great to gamble on right now.

What does everyone else think of Tazawa?  Is he worth using in any format?

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM