Green Bay Packers' Blueprint for Winning Free Agency
The Green Bay Packers have 16 players currently under contract who are set to become free agents when the new league year begins on March 10. That date will also be the first opportunity general manager Ted Thompson will have to sign any free agents, if he so chooses.
After initial talks between Thompson and vice president of player finance Russ Ball began with players' agents at the 2015 NFL Scouting Combine, the Packers still have a little over a week to lock up any impending free agents.
Such players include Randall Cobb, Bryan Bulaga, Tramon Williams, Davon House, B.J. Raji and Letroy Guion, among others.
Let's take a look at five moves the Packers could make to win free agency. They may not make all of them, but each move would be a step toward strengthening the team and improving areas of deficiency prior to the 2015 season, as long as the cap remains healthy in the process.
According to Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, after cutting Brad Jones and A.J. Hawk, the Packers have about $32 million in cap room.
Re-Sign Randall Cobb
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Ted Thompson will not pay more for Randall Cobb than the value he has assigned to him, and he shouldn't. But unless Cobb is allowed to reach free agency and gets an offer of $10 million-plus per year, the Packers should do everything possible to re-sign him.
CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reported on February 25 that "Cobb's market is likely to get out of hand," and so in the meantime, Green Bay continues to focus on re-signing other free agents such as right tackle Bryan Bulaga.
We know from ESPN.com's Rob Demovksy that Cobb is reportedly seeking a deal that averages about $9 million per year. If Thompson isn't willing to go that high, other teams probably will—such as, according to Bill Williamson of ESPN.com, the Oakland Raiders.
But Williamson also reported the Packers were not likely to let Cobb hit free agency. Thompson indicated in his media session at the NFL combine that Green Bay is trying to retain Cobb. "It’s not a secret that we try to keep and maintain our own guys as much as possible," Thompson said, via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "We feel like that’s a good investment for the organization."
At only 24 years old, Cobb is one of Thompson's most successful selections and only continues to improve. Rather than paying for past performance, a new contract for Cobb should be thought of as an investment in his future production.
Many hold the opinion that the Packers don't need to re-sign Cobb; their young crop of developing receivers is talented enough to continue to supply Aaron Rodgers with a collection of weapons. But Cobb has developed into not only one of the best slot receivers in the league but one of the best scoring weapons, as well. His 12 touchdowns scored in 2014 was the third-most among all receivers.
The Packers scored 312 total points off touchdowns in 2014, which means Cobb accounted for 23 percent (or 72 points) of offensive scoring.
Davante Adams had a fantastic rookie campaign in 2014, and would be a solid No. 3 receiver behind Jordy Nelson and Cobb. Though their futures look bright, it's unclear if Jarrett Boykin, Jeff Janis or Jared Abbrederis is ready to assume that role in 2015 if Cobb walks.
Re-Sign Bryan Bulaga
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CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reported on February 25 that re-signing right tackle Bulaga is a focus of Green Bay's prior to the beginning of free agency on March 10.
Bulaga is the right tackle with the biggest draw on the free-agent market this year, so an offer from the Packers will need to be enticing to prevent him from seeking the open market.
At only 25 years old, however, and a mainstay on Green Bay's offensive line, a deal to keep him will be worth it.
Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette predicts that Bulaga could become "one of and maybe the highest-paid right tackle in the league," with a deal averaging about $7 million a year, which the current highest-paid right tackle, Indianapolis' Gosder Cherilus, earns.
He's certainly playing like it. Bulaga finished fourth in the league among right tackles in 2014, per Pro Football Focus, but second in pass-blocking. He was a crucial part of what was likely the best offensive line in the Mike McCarthy era.
But, as Dougherty points out, Bulaga's season-ending injuries in 2012 and 2013 could keep his price from rising too high for Green Bay.
Make a Call at Cornerback
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It's unikely Green Bay will bring back both Davon House and Tramon Williams, who will become free agents on March 10.
In one scenario, the Packers retain a veteran who has started 99 games but is on the wrong side of 30 years old. In the other, they have to start a 25-year-old who, though talented, has started just 14 games.
Per Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, it could take at least $5 million a year to re-sign House, while Williams had a base salary of $6.9 million in 2014 with a cap hit of $9.5 million. Unless Williams takes a pay cut, there's no way he's earning that kind of money in 2015.
What the Packers must decide is if House has earned the starting job as well as the paycheck he's seeking. House has delivered when he's been introduced into the starting lineup, such as when he was brought in to cover Julio Jones in Week 14 in place of a struggling Sam Shields, but his starts have been few and far between.
Although House can be physical in man coverage on leading NFL receivers, he hasn't been able to post the interceptions Williams has. He has had one interception in each of his last two seasons.
However, House has racked up pass breakups, including against Jones in that Week 14 game against the Atlanta Falcons. House had 10 passes defended in each of his last two seasons.
The Packers can't necessarily make a wrong choice here, as either corner should be able to start opposite Sam Shields next season, but they have to weigh veteran experience against future potential.
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Examine the Free-Agent Linebacker Market
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After cutting both Brad Jones and A.J. Hawk this offseason, and with inside linebacker Jamari Lattimore set to become a free agent, Thompson might decide to rebuild the position with a low-cost free-agent acquisition as well as through the draft.
Though Thompson rarely makes the kind of splashy free-agent signings he did last season with Julius Peppers, he hasn't exactly sat on his hands in March through his tenure in Green Bay either. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel compiled a list of the free agents Thompson has signed since 2006; including Peppers, there have been 15.
And if the price is right at the inside linebacker position in free agency, why not dabble? The Packers need a full-time starter next to Sam Barrington as well as one to two more players for depth and to rotate in for situational play, such as on passing downs.
Of the inside linebackers projected to become free agents, Thompson could take a look at Mason Foster of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At just 25 years old and with a cap hit of only $1.5 million in 2014, he's a young player the Packers could develop, but he still brings some veteran experience to the extremely young Green Bay inside linebacker corps.
The 6'1" and 241-pound middle linebacker called the plays for Buccaneers in Lovie Smith's system in 2014 and greatly increased his pass-coverage role. He missed six games last season with injuries to his shoulder and Achilles, but he had a productive 15-game campaign in 2013, with 63 total tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble, three interceptions for two touchdowns and seven passes defended.
Other bigger-name free-agent inside linebackers include David Harris of the New York Jets, Brandon Spikes of the Buffalo Bills and Rolando McClain of the Dallas Cowboys.
Re-Sign B.J. Raji to a 1-Year Extension
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Green Bay's two best options at the nose tackle position in 2015, B.J. Raji and Letroy Guion, are both set to become free agents on March 10.
Guion is continuing to wait out his legal troubles after being hit with two felony drug and weapon charges in February, but ESPN.com's Rob Demovksy reported that, per a source, the matter could soon be resolved.
Still, even if the Packers do re-sign Guion, it's likely that the charges have killed his free-agent market, per Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette. Dougherty thinks that means the Packers could re-sign him for the seven-year veteran minimum of $870,000, only $515,000 of which would count against the cap.
That still leaves enough room to offer Raji perhaps half of what he received last offseason before he tore his biceps—a one-year prove-it deal worth $2 million.
The moves would provide much-needed depth on the defensive line and bring back two players who have been productive for Green Bay. Though Raji's play fell off when he was moved from nose tackle to defensive end the last two seasons, per accounts last offseason, he was excelling at his old nose tackle position in training camp.
"B.J. Raji, he was in the best shape and having the best camp of his career," head coach Mike McCarthy said after the injury, via The Associated Press' Todd McMahon.
Bill Huber of Packer Report reported on February 27 that the Packers plan to bring back Raji in 2015.
Free-agent and salary information courtesy of Spotrac.com unless otherwise noted.
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