Updating Buffalo Bills' Big Board Post-Combine
The Buffalo Bills do not currently possess a first-round selection in the 2015 draft, which makes general manager Doug Whaley's difficult task of creating a realistic big board that much more challenging.
Given the team's issues at the quarterback position, it would make sense for Florida State's Jameis Winston or Oregon's Marcus Mariota to top this list. Placing either of these prospects on top of its list, however, would simply be a waste of time for Buffalo, as the team won't make its first selection until pick No. 50.
With Winston, Mariota and a multitude of other lucrative young players expected to come off the board well before the middle of the second round, composing a list filled with top-30 prospects wouldn't be a helpful exercise for Buffalo.
Consequently, a realistic Bills big board appears as though it picks up where the end of other teams'—who maintain first-round picks—lists leave off.
Whaley has already made it abundantly clear that he will be targeting almost exclusively offensive prospects this year. Per Matthew Fairburn of The Post-Standard, the Bills general manager listed wide receiver, interior offensive linemen, quarterback, tight end and running back as his team's positional needs. Whaley did note that he would consider drafting a defensive player, but the selection would be a depth addition, as opposed to a day-one starter.
Despite not owning a first-round pick, Whaley and the Bills should be capable of addressing a couple of these needs with talented, immediate-impact prospects such as Minnesota's Maxx Williams or USC's Nelson Agholor.
Whaley may be forced to change his draft strategy if defensive end Jerry Hughes departs during free agency, but as it stands today, his big board should be covered by offensive players.
Here is a look at the top 10 prospects on the Bills' big board, relative to the positioning of their first pick in the draft.
10. QB Bryce Petty, Baylor
1 of 10
For the Bills, it really only makes sense to begin with a quarterback prospect.
With Josh McCown signing on the dotted line with the Cleveland Browns late last week, Buffalo is now in a bit of a bind at the quarterback position. EJ Manuel, who is currently the presumed starter, and Jeff Tuel are the only players at this position currently under contract with the Bills. Based on this pair's history, it is pretty safe to say that drafting a quarterback should be considered a priority in Buffalo.
As stated previously, both Winston and Mariota will be long gone by the time the Bills select at No. 50. In addition, the chances that UCLA's Brett Hundley won't be available either continue to increase as his stock rises throughout the draft process.
Unfortunately, there is a pretty significant dropoff after this trio of quarterbacks. With that said, if there is one more quarterback prospect capable of becoming a starter, it may be Baylor's Bryce Petty.
Petty does have some impressive skills, as noted by ESPN's Paul Kuharsky, including his football intelligence and throwing ability:
".@gregcosell on @Midday180: Most impressive thrower at combine to me was Bryce Petty. Know has little understanding of drops, routes #Baylor
— Paul Kuharsky (@PaulKuharskyNFL) February 25, 2015"
While most wouldn't consider Petty before the fourth round, one source reported there is a head coach who prefers Petty to any quarterback in the draft:
"One former NFL scout says Bill O’Brien “really likes” Bryce Petty. Listen here. http://t.co/Q8S6MGZbPf #NFL #Texans
— PDS (@PatDStat) March 2, 2015"
There is upside with Petty, but few consider him anywhere close to a pro-ready prospect. If the Bills miss out on Winston, Mariota and Hundley, however, Petty is the best bet Buffalo has to improve its underwhelming quarterback situation through the draft.
9. RB David Cobb, Minnesota
2 of 10
Fred Jackson is 34 years old and C.J. Spiller is an impending free agent. The Bills do have Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown under contract for the 2015 season, but both of these running backs leave a lot to be desired.
In a class stacked with talent at this position, it would be shocking if Whaley and head coach Rex Ryan didn't add a running back prospect. Ryan has a history of addressing this position in the middle rounds, as he drafted a running back (Shonn Greene, Joe McKnight, Bilal Powell) in three consecutive seasons from 2009-11 while he was the head coach of the New York Jets.
Despite being further down the prospect list, Minnesota's David Cobb is a pro-ready running back capable of stepping in and immediately impacting the Bills offense. He may not be explosive, but Cobb is the type of tough runner offensive coordinator Greg Roman typically builds his rushing attack around.
Recently, Cobb was unable to participate in both the NFL Scouting Combine and Minnesota's pro day due to a nagging quad injury, as noted by Fox Sports' Phil Ervin:
"Gophers RB David Cobb has been rehabbing since his quad injury at the combine. Hopes to hold his own pro day in early April.
— Phil Ervin (@PhilErvin) March 2, 2015"
This may slightly affect his draft stock, but it shouldn't impact Buffalo's interest in him. If the Bills are unable to acquire a higher-rated running back on their big board, Cobb represents an excellent value selection in the third or fourth round.
8. OG Laken Tomlinson, Duke
3 of 10
Although the ordering likely isn't too significant, the first position Whaley noted in his conversation with Fairburn was interior offensive line. Buffalo did recently sign the troubled Richie Incognito, but adding a guard prospect should still be considered a priority.
Duke's Laken Tomlinson is widely considered by analysts to be a top-five guard prospect, capable of becoming an above-average starter in the NFL.
At 6'3", 323 lbs, Tomlinson possesses great size for the position, which he combines with an ideal intangible skill set consisting of self-empowering confidence and off-the-charts intelligence. In order to get an idea of just how smart Tomlinson is, Justin Rogers of MLive shares his backup career plan:
"Laken Tomlinson, if football doesn't work out, is interested in pursing a career in neurology.
— Justin Rogers (@Justin_Rogers) February 18, 2015"
While his combine results weren't exactly spectacular, the Duke product should still hear his name called in the second or third round. In fact, Buffalo may actually benefit from his less-than-noteworthy performance in Indianapolis, as he was initially considered an early second-round prospect.
Tomlinson could step in for Chris Williams and start right away, but allowing him some time to sit behind either him or Incognito could be more beneficial long-term.
Expect the Bills to pursue a guard prospect at some point during the draft, and if Tomlinson is still available, he could be a perfect fit.
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7. RB Jay Ajayi, Boise State
4 of 10
Cobb has a bright future ahead of him, and he would be a solid fit in Buffalo, but Boise State's Jay Ajayi is a complete running back prospect who has been exploding up draft boards in recent weeks.
Ajayi is capable of doing everything that Cobb can do—he likely isn't quite as good of a blocker, though—and more. As noted by Rotoworld's Josh Norris, the lesser-known Ajayi recorded nearly identical combine scores and measurables as Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon:
"Jay Ajayi and Melvin Gordon are the top comparisons for each other at 81.5% pic.twitter.com/83xQRHqzgJ
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) February 22, 2015"
The Boise State product may not possess Gordon's running back intangibles, but he is arguably a more complete back. In fact, there really isn't even a debate as to which player is the better receiver out of the backfield.
Not only does the football stick to Ajayi's hands, he runs crisp, decisive routes better than many 2015 wide receiver prospects.
"Jay Ajayi killin these combine routes https://t.co/S9k3T24d81
— JKaiser (@Jackpot__5) February 22, 2015"
Similar to Cobb, Ajayi's skill set correlates well with Roman's offensive game plan. However, his versatility allows him to be effective as a receiver and a rusher, setting himself apart from the aforementioned Minnesota product.
He could surely be listed higher on Buffalo's big board, but due to the high number of talented running back prospects in this class and the fact that his position is only a moderate need for the Bills, Ajayi drops lower (than he probably should).
This may be bold, but Ajayi could end up being a more dangerous version of Frank Gore, a player Roman had copious amounts of success with during his time with the San Francisco 49ers.
6. TE Clive Walford, Miami
5 of 10
Speaking of positional needs, tight end ranks directly behind quarterback in terms of importance for Buffalo. Unlike the 2015 running back class, however, the tight end prospects this year, as a whole, aren't loaded with talent.
Although Buffalo could, in theory, find a starting tight end with a late-round pick—Florida State's Nick O'Leary, for example—the early-round options like Miami's Clive Walford are expected to return considerably better long-term results.
In addition to his massive 6'4", 251-pound frame, Walford produced impressive combine results. His 4.79-second 40-yard dash time, 35.0-inch vertical and 120.0-inch broad jump all ranked near the top at his position.
As noted by Lance Zierlein, however, Walford has had issues with "focus drops" throughout his career. Simply, his size and impressive test results don't mean a thing if he can't catch the ball. To put this into perspective, Detroit Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew never lived up to expectations based on his size and athleticism due to issues catching the football.
Other than this issue, though, Walford is the entire package. Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reinforces this thought with a brief explanation and flattering pro comparison:
"Clive Walford will be a Greg Olsen type. He can do everything & consistently creates separation from linebackers.
— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) March 1, 2015"
If Walford turns out anything like Olsen, Buffalo would certainly be more than satisfied making him a second- or third-round selection.
5. RB Tevin Coleman, Indiana
6 of 10
As well-rounded and talented as Ajayi is, Indiana's Tevin Coleman is even better. While Coleman isn't as multi-dimensional, he a more dynamic and efficient runner capable of revolutionizing Buffalo's rushing attack.
Coleman is downright scary with the football in his hands. He possesses the agility and athleticism to run around defenders, but he has absolutely no problem going through them either—some of his tape even suggests he prefers this option. The Indiana product is a quick decision-maker and explodes into the second level of defenses like he was shot out of a cannon.
His physical abilities alone would likely warrant an early-round selection, but his intangibles make it definitive. Coleman is very tough, as noted by CBS Sports' Dane Brugler, and plays with an intensity few can match.
"RB Tevin Coleman is one of the toughest dudes in the Draft. Toe injury in 5th game, didn't miss time and was 4th fastest ever to 2,000 yards
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) February 27, 2015"
Coleman's vision and decision-making skills make his physical abilities even more dangerous. As refined as he is already, he has likely only reached the tip of his potential due his grasp of the running back position and strong work ethic.
The 2,000-yard rusher does not offer as much versatility as Ajayi, and drafting him wouldn't fill a pressing need, but Coleman would dramatically upgrade an important position in the Roman offense.
His foot injury may drop him down some teams' big boards, but Buffalo shouldn't fall into this trap; he could be the game-changing element this offense desperately needs due to not rostering an above-average quarterback.
4. WR Nelson Agholor, USC
7 of 10
After a resource-depleting trade that brought wide receiver Sammy Watkins to Buffalo last year, it seems like Buffalo would be better off targeting a different position with its first pick in 2015. However, USC's Nelson Agholor is an outstanding talent who could give Buffalo a dominating aerial attack.
The USC standout only possesses average size (6'0", 198 lbs), but this hasn't held him back from dominating opposing defensive backs. Agholor is an elite route-runner and created separation at the line of scrimmage with ease throughout his college career. Also, his hands are essentially double-sided tape, and he moves fluidly both in his routes and in the open field.
On top of being fundamental in the physical aspects of his position, Agholor also shows an elite understanding of how to approach any situation—even when his quarterback is forced to improvise, as noted by Zierlein.
Agholor also possesses top-end speed—he ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash in Indianapolis—and was an accomplished return man in college.
Possessing great positional intelligence, refined fundamentals and notable athleticism, Agholor's size is really the only knock on his game—and 6'0" isn't even below average.
Agholor also has the personality of a consummate professional. He always sets the bar very high for himself and maintains a superior work ethic and high confidence. All of these personality traits may be gathered from a quote noted by Fran Duffy:
"WR Nelson Agholor: "I don't catch passes to gain four yards or first downs. I'm trying to score every time I catch the ball."
— Fran Duffy (@fduffy3) February 19, 2015"
The combination of Watkins and Agholor would make Manuel's job—assuming he is ultimately named Buffalo's starter—considerably easier. Two fundamentally dominant wide receivers on opposite sides of the field tends to cover up quarterback flaws.
Again, wide receiver isn't a glaring need for the Bills, but a player like Agholor would substantially improve an anemic Bills offense.
3. OG Ty Sambrailo, Colorado State
8 of 10
The best offensive lineman expected to be available when the Bills draft at No. 50, Colorado State's Ty Sambrailo projects as a dominant professional. While analysts believe he is better suited to play guard, he has the size and athletic ability to play tackle as well.
As previously noted, the Bills—and specifically Manuel—could really benefit from improved offensive line play, and Sambarilo should be able to provide this immediately. Since Buffalo is set with Cordy Glenn and Seantrel Henderson at the tackle positions, Sambrailo would be able to slide in at guard, a position he could instantly improve for Buffalo's porous protection group.
His 6'6", 311-pound frame gives him the appearance of a tackle, but his top-tier 7.54-second three-cone drill time suggests that he possesses the necessary agility and athleticism to dominate inside.
Similar to the best guards in the NFL, Sambrailo is the definition of a finisher. He needs to improve as a run-blocker, but once he gains an advantage, there is no turning back.
Most importantly, Sambrailo is a pro-ready pass-blocker. He has quick hands and consistently keeps himself in front of pass-rushers. Buffalo's guards allowed too many quarterback pressures this past season—Kraig Urbik allowed 14 and Cyril Richardson allowed 17 in limited snaps, according to Pro Football Focus—and Sambrailo should have no problem improving these numbers.
If available, Sambrailo is both a perfect fit positionally and an excellent talent—an ideal first pick for the Bills.
2. TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota
9 of 10
Walford could be a difference-maker at the NFL level, but it is a near certainty that Minnesota's Maxx Williams will have a considerable impact on the offense of the team acquires his services.
The Minnesota product wasn't universally recognized across the college football world—this was largely due to the Gophers' dreadful passing attack—until he did this:
"And today he declared for the NFL Draft #Gophers RT @gifdsports: Maxx Williams hurdles two defenders for touchdown https://t.co/jJn3fJHyXS
— SwaggerStadium (@SwaggerStadium) January 3, 2015"
Although Williams likely didn't have to prove his athleticism to anyone after this remarkable play, he dominated the NFL Scouting Combine just to be certain. He finished near the top in the 40-yard dash (4.78 seconds), vertical jump (34.5 inches), broad jump (117.0 inches) and 20-yard shuttle (4.37 seconds), relative to tight end prospects.
Williams also possesses outstanding hands and is the definition of a red-zone nightmare. Simply, a lot of his traits are best compared to those of Rob Gronkowski.
He is the only tight end worthy of a first-round selection, and he may end up being one, but Buffalo can remain hopeful that he slides a bit. If he does fall into the second round, he is enough of a game-changer to warrant trading up a few picks to assure his acquisition.
In a weak tight end class, Williams is a juggernaut. If the Bills can't add the No. 1 player on this list, Williams needs to be made a priority.
1. QB Brett Hundley, UCLA
10 of 10
Although some analysts have given Petty the edge over Brett Hundley, it is pretty safe to say that the UCLA product will be the third quarterback to come off the board this year.
There are questions about his fundamentals, but his athleticism is in uncharted territory. Hundley finished in the top tier in every drill that he participated in at the NFL Scouting Combine. He ran a 4.63-second 40-yard dash, recorded a 36.0-inch vertical leap, an outstanding 120.0-inch broad jump, a 6.93-second three-cone drill and 3.98-second 20-yard shuttle.
Hundley's quarterbacking skills have been called into question—he tends to make too many unforced errors in "simple" situations—but these can be refined with time. He doesn't possess the same arm strength, but his athleticism and skill set compare favorably to San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who had plenty of success running—no pun intended—Roman's offense. Naturally, this suggests Hundley could be an ideal fit for Buffalo's new-look offense.
On top of his supreme athleticism, Hundley is also very levelheaded and an extremely impressive young adult. In fact, CBS Sports' Pat Kirwan believes this may be the deciding factor in whether he is drafted in the first round:
"just interviewed Brett Hundley..don't be surprised if he goes in the bottom of the first round
— Pat Kirwan (@PatKirwanCBS) February 26, 2015"
Charisma, drive, work ethic, passion and competitiveness—all traits Hundley possesses—are very important elements of the quarterback position. He is an excellent leader and commands the huddle. Sure, fundamentals and natural ability are key to winning games, but quarterbacks with poor leadership skills and subpar personality traits don't win many Super Bowls.
Determining a good leader is a bit subjective, but every Super Bowl champion over, at the very least, the past decade has been motivated by a definitive leader at quarterback—Trent Dilfer (2002) and Brad Johnson (2003) are the only champion quarterbacks in the last 15 years whose leadership is even arguable.
Buffalo may be forced to trade up in order to put UCLA's all-time leader in touchdown passes (75)—per Sports-Reference— on its roster, but he appears to be more than worth it. There may be questions about his game, but good, hands-on coaching combined with his outstanding work ethic could result in Hundley developing into the franchise quarterback Buffalo has coveted for years.
Combine results courtesy of NFL.com.
For more NFL news, statistics and discussion, find me on Twitter @RobertReidell.
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