New York Giants Final Free-Agency Outlook and Predictions
In less than a week, the New York Giants will commence their annual free-agency sweeps.
Unlike last year, general manager Jerry Reese has already said that the team won’t be quite as active as far as signing players from other teams goes.
"Last year we had to turn the roster over and we are not going to go out and spend a huge amount like we did this past offseason in free agency," Reese told reporters a day after the 2014 season ended.
The takeaway from that sentiment is that the Giants will instead look to re-sign some of their own players to fill in the depth at various positions.
Who is likely to stay and who is likely to go? Here is a rundown of the key Giants free agents and what is likely to happen.
Stays: DE Jason Pierre-Paul
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Unless some other team is willing to give up its next two first-round draft picks, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, who was given the non-exclusive franchise tag on Monday and will be a Giant in 2015.
Beyond that is anyone’s guess. The Giants hope to negotiate and sign Pierre-Paul to a long-term deal that ultimately lowers that $14.81 million cap figure that Pierre-Paul will carry if he ends up signing the franchise tag tender.
Whether that happens remains to be seen, but again, Pierre-Paul will be a Giant in 2015.
Goes: S Antrel Rolle
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Head coach Tom Coughlin might want safety Antrel Rolle back, but the financial restrictions Coughlin mentioned might not make it possible.
Despite having a “down” year last season in which he failed to record at least 96 tackles for the first time since 2010, his first season as a Giant, the 32-year-old Rolle, who last year earned a $7 million base salary, is still very much a starting quality safety.
However, the Giants need to answer some questions before making him an offer, such as do they want to keep Rolle around for another two or three years at the expense of one or both of youngsters Nat Berhe and Cooper Taylor?
In an interview on SiriusXM Radio last month (h/t ProFootballTalk.com) Rolle said he would like to come back to the Giants.
However, with this next contract potentially being his last in the NFL, just how much leeway he’s willing to give the cap-strapped Giants remains to be seen.
That’s why the most likely scenario is that some team that is in better cap shape than the Giants is going to be able to offer Rolle a competitive contract that the Giants won’t be able to match.
Stays: CB Walter Thurmond III
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Given the number of injuries that struck the Giants last year, the team is hoping to get a mulligan on a few key players they were hoping would play a significant role.
One such player is slot cornerback Walter Thurmond III, who was signed to a one-year contract last offseason.
Unfortunately, Thurmond lasted just two games into the 2014 regular season, a torn pectoral muscle ending his year prematurely.
Thurmond told me at the end of the season that he would be open to returning to the Giants, if they would have him. It would be hard to imagine that a player of his talents wouldn’t fit into their defense.
The only question is whether Thurmond will sign for more than one year if he does indeed return to the Giants.
If Thurmond, who is believed to be ahead of schedule, can recapture that skill set he showed when he was a member of the Seahawks, a multiyear contract just might be worth the investment.
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Goes: WR Jerrel Jernigan
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In his year-end press conference with reporters, general manager Jerry Reese was asked about the team’s philosophy when it comes to holding on to draft picks that haven’t contributed as expected.
“We try to give guys a chance to fail” Reese said. “If you give them a chance to fail and they fail, that’s fine, we made a mistake. But you have to give guys a chance to fail first before you push them out the door.”
One soon-to-be unrestricted free agent who should fall into that category is Jerrel Jernigan, the Giants' third-round pick in 2011.
Jernigan, who flashed at the end of the 2013 season when he filled in for Victor Cruz as the slot receiver for three games—he accumulated 237 of his career 329 yards over that three-game stretch, per NFL.com—was unable to build on that production during the 2014 training camp.
When it came to the season, Jernigan suffered a foot injury in Week 2 that ended his year and likely his Giants career.
At 5’8”, 189 pounds, Jernigan lacks the size to be an outside receiver. He also doesn’t contribute on special teams, despite numerous opportunities in his first three seasons to win a return specialist job.
The Giants might not know whether Cruz is going to be ready to go just yet, but chances are they already know Jernigan isn’t the answer considering they re-signed Kevin Ogletree ahead of Jernigan.
Stays: FB Henry Hynoski
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Although the Giants didn’t use fullback Henry Hynoski as much in the offense in 2014 as they have in past years—per Pro Football Focus, his 16-game snap count dipped from 428 in 2012 to 209 last year—Hynoski still brought value to the team.
According to PFF, he was the league’s second-best lead blocker, behind Anthony Sherman of the Chiefs. He also contributed in the running game, particularly on short yardage, rushing seven times for 13 yards, with four of his rushing attempts going for first downs.
However, offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo seemed to favor using a tight end in more of his formations. Also, Hynoski didn’t have a single pass thrown this way this year, a big difference in how he was used in his first three years with the team.
Given that starting tight end Larry Donnell is still a work in progress as a run-blocker—per PFF, Donnell graded out with a minus-13.1 as a run-blocker—it would be hard to imagine there not being a need on the Giants for a pure fullback like Hynoski for at least one more season.
Goes: LB Jacquian Williams
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In 2014, linebacker Jacquian Williams became an every-down linebacker on the weak side for the first time in his career.
The results, however, were mixed. Although he finished with a career-high 77 tackles before his season ended early due to a concussion, the quality of his tackles left something to be desired as far as where the tackles were made on the field.
Not surprisingly, Williams finished with a minus-5.7 grade in coverage, the third-worst on the team. He also finished with a minus-1.3 grade in rushing the passer, recording just six pressures in 571 snaps.
The most frustrating thing about Williams was that there were times when he appeared to lack trust in what he was seeing. As a result, he arrived on the scene a hair too late and a positive gain ensued for the opposing offense.
If the Giants want to upgrade their defense, they need linebackers with instincts, which is why they might just be planning to move on from their 2011 sixth-round draft pick.
Stays: LB Mark Herzlich
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Last season, Mark Herzlich had his best year as a pro, finishing with 52 tackles, his first career sack and two passes defensed.
He played most of his snaps at outside linebacker, where he started eight games on the strong side, according to Pro Football Focus.
In his 319 snaps played, Herzlich finished with an 11.4 run defense grade, the third-best run defense grade on the defense last year (behind defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul).
A likely reason for Herzlich’s success was the shift to outside linebacker, where he had less ground to cover than he would have had to if he played in the the middle.
However, Herzlich’s minus-8.1 grade in pass coverage was the worst on the defense, which is why he probably isn’t more than a role player.
A steady presence on special teams, the 27-year-old Herzlich, who can fill in at any of the three linebacker positions, still offers value and will likely draw a modest contract to continue his NFL career with the Giants.
Goes: S Quintin Demps
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Safety Quintin Demps was initially brought in to contribute as a kickoff returner, a job he ended up yielding to Preston Parker as the season went on after finishing 2014 with 12 returns for 255 yards and one fumble.
As a safety, Demps, who replaced Stevie Brown as the starting free safety in Week 4, had his share of struggles.
He allowed 19 of 30 passes thrown his way to be completed for 209 yards, 127 after the catch, according to Pro Football Focus. He also gave up two touchdowns, picking off four passes and breaking up two others.
By Week 14, Demps was replaced in the starting lineup by Brown. In his new role as a third safety/reserve, Demps finished the last three weeks of the season giving up NFL passer ratings of 88.3, 114.4 and 118.8 when the ball was thrown his way.
With the Giants believed to be planning to upgrade their safety depth and their kickoff returner spot, they will probably look to move on from Demps.
Stays: TE Daniel Fells
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This season the Giants will need to find out if they can count on the duo of Adrien Robinson and Larry Donnell as their tight ends of the future.
In the meantime, they will probably want to keep a veteran presence around such as what they had last year in Daniel Fells. Fells, who had been out of football in 2013 after failing to catch on with New England, was actually a pleasant surprise for the Giants last season.
Per Pro Football Focus, he was the highest overall graded of the three tight ends (6.3). He also beat out his two younger colleagues as a receiver, catching 16 of 20 targets (80 percent), and as a run-blocker, where he finished with a 3.9 grade.
As a receiver, Fells finished with four touchdowns, second to Donnell’s six. Fells was also the only tight end out of the group who didn’t have a dropped pass, a category that Donnell led the unit in with four.
The drawback with Fells is that he will be 32 by the time the season gets underway, so he probably isn’t a long-term solution.
If he is willing to return on a one-year veteran minimum deal, which is the type of contract he received last year, then there should be no reason why he won’t at least get a chance to come back and compete for a roster spot.
Goes: LB Spencer Paysinger
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Last offseason, linebacker Spencer Paysinger, an undrafted free agent who signed with the team in 2011, was the only one out of five Giants restricted free agents to receive a tender.
Of the three restricted free agents who did return to the Giants—fullback Henry Hynoski and linebacker Mark Herzlich being the other two—Paysinger earned the fewest non-special teams snaps (81).
It’s not exactly known why Paysinger’s snaps on defense decreased from the 2013 season, where he started seven games as an outside linebacker, logging 707 snaps on defense.
Whatever the reason was, it seems as though the Giants phased him out of their plans moving forward. Although linebacker appears to be a position of need, it would still be surprising if Paysinger is re-signed.
Stays: OL John Jerry
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Thanks to injuries, offensive lineman John Jerry, who last year signed a one-year veteran minimum contract paying him $795,000, was thrust into the starting lineup at right guard with less than desirable results.
Per Pro Football Focus, Jerry, who made it through the entire 16-game season after missing the spring due to knee surgery, finished with negative grades in both pass blocking (minus-1.1) and run blocking (minus-16.4).
In fact, his run-blocking grade was the worst of all the Giants offensive players, and just a part of the reason why the Giants running game struggled so much last season.
With all that said, Jerry still has value as a reserve at guard and tackle until the coaches can develop some of the young talent already on the roster and still to be added to the roster for larger roles.
If Jerry is willing to accept a contract similar to what he had in 2014, it wouldn’t be surprising if he returns.
Goes: OL James Brewer
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Offensive lineman James Brewer is another Giants draft pick—he was chosen in the fourth round of the 2011 draft—who has probably reached the end of the line with the team.
Given a chance to nail down a starting job in 2013, Brewer was inconsistent to the point where the front office turned to free agency to fill the needs.
Brewer, whose injury history includes back issues and a season-ending concussion, has played in just 26 games over four seasons—he missed his rookie year due to a season-ending elbow injury.
Last year, he missed the first four games due to a back injury. He also missed two games with a concussion, an injury that put him on injured reserve.
Perhaps the most telling sign that Brewer wasn’t in the plans moving forward came this past year when he was a healthy scratch in six of the 14 games he was on the 53-man roster.
Stays: CB Zack Bowman
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When the Giants added cornerback Zack Bowman last year, they did so with an eye on beefing up their special teams play and adding veteran depth to their cornerback room.
Bowman delivered on special teams, finishing with a 3.0 overall grade from Pro Football Focus. He also told me for Inside Football that he took Prince Amukamara under his wing last year. Not surprisingly, Amukamara had one of his best seasons until a bicep injury ended his year prematurely.
When pressed into action once injuries started to eat away at the cornerback unit, Bowman, who started five games, struggled.
Bowman was targeted 36 times, allowing 13 completions for 251 yards. He gave up four touchdowns versus recording just two interceptions, finishing with a 75.1 NFL rating, the third-best among Giants cornerbacks.
Where Bowman was particularly exposed was on the deep ball, where he allowed five completions of 20 or more yards last year.
Bowman still has value to the team as a reserve, mentor and special teams player who might be willing to return on another one-year contract to compete for a roster spot.
Goes: DT Mike Patterson
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When defensive tackle Mike Patterson first joined the Giants in 2013, his primary role was as a short-yardage and goal-line run-stopper.
He executed that role rather well, using his big body to plug holes, and finishing with a 3.0 run-stopping grade from Pro Football Focus. As a result, he was re-signed to another one-year contract last offseason.
Unfortunately, Patterson’s production as a run-stopper wasn’t quite as solid as it was in 2013. He finished with a minus-8.7 run-stopping grade as well as fewer tackles and stops at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Patterson, who will be 32 in September, may have one more year left to give, but the Giants might want to think about getting younger at that defensive interior, as Johnathan Hankins needs a solid partner alongside of him for the long term.
All salary cap and contract information is via Over the Cap unless otherwise noted. All stats via Pro Football Focus, unless otherwise noted.
Patricia Traina covers the Giants for Inside Football, the Journal Inquirer and Sports Xchange. All quotes and information obtained firsthand unless otherwise sourced. Follow me on Twitter @Patricia_Traina.
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