Projecting Point Spreads for Top 15 Games of the 2015 College Football Season
Since college football is nearly a year-round sport now, there are few times when you're actually without it in some form or fashion. Spring practices have already started, after all.
But projecting point spreads for next year's top games at least gives us the opportunity to peruse the slates. On paper alone, there are a lot of epic games (and some not-so-epic ones).
Official lines from the fine folks in Las Vegas won't be released en masse until this summer, so consider this an appetizer.
Actually, since B/R colleague Adam Kramer normally handles this kind of thing, consider it the complementary bread at the table instead.
Hey, it's better than nothing.
Picking the best 15 games for 2015 based on what would happen if they were played next week is tough. Not picking games is excruciating. So before blurting out that X game was omitted or forgotten, know that it's already been considered. Probably several times. And that many tears have been shed over it.
With that, here are the way-too-early top 15 games of '15—ordered by date—with projected points spreads accompanying them.
Sept. 5 Alabama vs. Wisconsin
1 of 15
Projected Line: Alabama (-10)
Oh, if only this game had been played a year ago. Think of the star power—Amari Cooper and T.J. Yeldon for Alabama and Melvin Gordon for Wisconsin.
Perhaps, though, this Week 1 neutral-site game between SEC and Big Ten foes will introduce a new line of household names that will take the college football world by storm. It could still be running backs galore. Derrick Henry and Kenyon Drake (provided he's healthy enough) should be a beautiful 1A and 1B option for the Tide.
Don't forget about Corey Clement. As a backup to Gordon in 2014, Clement still averaged 6.5 yards per carry and scored nine touchdowns for the Badgers.
Opening week neutral-site games can be a monster to predict. If Alabama's run defense is anything like it was last year, however—which is to say, No. 4 in the country—the Tide should be in good shape.
Sept. 5 Arizona State vs. Texas A&M
2 of 15
Projected Line: Texas A&M (-6.5)
As far as Week 1 games go, Arizona State and Texas A&M in Houston looks good on the surface—but has the chance to be a ridiculous amount of fun to watch.
It'll be a predominantly Aggie crowd in NRG Stadium, which helps on the whole home-field advantage front. Whether the starting quarterback is Kyle Allen or 5-star freshman Kyler Murray, A&M should be in good hands. If the game were played tomorrow, though, Allen would get the start.
The question, as usual, is the defense. Head coach Kevin Sumlin got an A+ hire when he got defensive coordinator John Chavis to come to College Station from LSU. Can Chavis work instant magic with guys like defensive end Myles Garrett and safety Armani Watts?
That'll be important. Arizona State may lose receiver Jaelen Strong and quarterback Taylor Kelly, but Kelly's understudy, Mike Bercovici, played well in three starts last season.
With two wide-open offenses indoors, offense shouldn't be an issue.
Sept. 12 Oklahoma at Tennessee
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Projected Line: Tennessee (-6.5)
Beware of anything that reads "Is [insert trendy pick] finally back?" over the next six months. Articles like that are only setting you up for disappointment anyway. Unfortunately, that means you can't read anything on the Internet over the next six months.
In any case, expect to see a lot of said opinions about Tennessee. Head coach Butch Jones has the Vols headed in the right direction and is recruiting well, and youth/inexperience isn't the excuse it has been for the past, like, 10 years.
If Tennessee wants to show folks it is the dreaded B-word, or at least on its way there, a home win over Oklahoma in mid-September would be a nice start. Last year in Norman, the Vols got pushed around and ended up losing 34-10. The Sooners have stumbled since that game and face a lot of questions until they get their quarterback situation figured out.
Tennessee is starving for a signature win. Neyland Stadium will be electric.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Sept. 12 Oregon at Michigan State
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Projected Line: Michigan State (-3.5)
Since this is going to come up again, let's get it out in the open: Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams Jr. has a great shot to become Oregon's next starting quarterback. But, as of late February, he's not even on campus yet. There's an element of the unknown here.
That's taken into consideration in an early-season game at Michigan State. Right now, it's not clear what the Ducks have at quarterback. The good news for Oregon is that the long list of skill players, including running back Royce Freeman, are back.
Losing receiver Tony Lippett and running back Jeremy Langford is tough, but Michigan State has the quarterback, Connor Cook, to go toe-to-toe with any high-powered offense.
Giving up big plays late plagued Sparty in last year's game against the Ducks. Defensive end Shilique Calhoun wasn't a huge factor and would have to rectify that this time around.
Sept. 19 Auburn at LSU
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Projected Line: Auburn (-3.5)
Auburn and LSU have been known to produce great games, but the last two meetings have been decided by double digits. That might be the case again unless LSU can get more out of its quarterback play. Last season, the Tigers were among the worst passing teams in the country.
LSU running back Leonard Fournette is already a star, but would he generate enough offense by himself?
Auburn shouldn't have much problem picking up where it left off offensively. Quarterback Jeremy Johnson seems primed to take the reins from Nick Marshall, and receiver Duke Williams is back. The question is whether new Tigers defensive coordinator Will Muschamp can get that side of the ball to tighten up.
Still, this game is at LSU. It doesn't matter who you are, that's tough.
Oct. 3 Notre Dame at Clemson
6 of 15
Projected Line: Even
If this game were played tomorrow, Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson wouldn't be healthy enough to go as he recovers from a torn ACL. However, assuming he recovers on time with no additional setbacks, he should be good to play on Oct. 3 at home against Notre Dame.
Because of the ACC's scheduling partnership with the Irish, this feels like one of those fascinating nonconference games. It has offense written all over, especially since the Tigers defense is being decimated by turnover. The entire defensive front four, which featured Vic Beasley and Corey Crawford, is gone. Yikes.
The Irish have a quarterback competition between Everett Golson and Malik Zaire. More than that, though, they desperately need to correct a turnover problem that plagued them a year ago.
Provided Watson doesn't have any injury issues, the Tigers are a tough draw at home. For now, it's an even line.
Oct. 17 USC at Notre Dame
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Projected Line: USC (-2.5)
If Notre Dame wins on the road at Clemson in early October, the Irish could easily be favored against USC at home a couple of weeks later. In many ways, it could follow the same script on paper.
The Trojans should have plenty of offense despite the departures of running back Buck Allen and receiver Nelson Agholor. Quarterback Cody Kessler is one of the best in the Pac-12, and what was a young offensive line—three freshmen started in 2014—is now more experienced.
It's that Trojan defense that is concerning. Lineman Leonard Williams is gone and could be one of the top picks in the draft, and there are seniors graduating at every level.
This one feels even. The Trojans are going to get a ton of preseason hype and "playoff bound?" headlines, but by this team's own admission, via Dan Weber of USCFootball.com, it couldn't close out games last year. Similarly, the Irish are loaded with talent but have quarterback questions and a new-look offensive line.
Oct. 17 Alabama at Texas A&M
8 of 15
Projected Line: Alabama (-3.5)
Since joining the SEC in 2012, Texas A&M has generally enjoyed thrilling games against Alabama—with the exception of last year, when the Tide blanked the Aggies 59-0. Think A&M is going to remember that when it hosts Alabama in mid-October?
As mentioned before, the Tide have so many new faces to break in on offense—and in key spots too. Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has been a perfect addition to Alabama's offense as a play-caller, but now we'll get to see his developmental acumen.
One of the best matchups on the field may not actually be on the field. It will be Kiffin vs. first-year A&M defensive coordinator John Chavis.
A&M is known for getting off to fast starts; it's how teams respond that usually determines the outcome. Kyle Field should be rocking. Is that home-field advantage enough, though?
Nov. 7 Florida State at Clemson
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Projected Line: Clemson (-2.5)
If you thought last year was Clemson's best chance to topple Florida State—Seminoles quarterback Jameis Winston was suspended—then wait till you see this year's chance.
As noted before, the Tigers have so much to replace on defense. I mean, goodness, it's almost unfair. But take that turnover, multiply it by two and you get what Florida State has to deal with for next year. No Winston, no wide receiver Rashad Greene, no tight end Nick O'Leary, new offensive line, no defensive lineman Eddie Goldman, no defensive back Ronald Darby, no—well, you get the point.
Seminoles head coach Jimbo Fisher has recruited well enough—beyond that, really—that this program will be fine long term. How will it do immediately, though? The new-look team combined with tough road games means there's a recipe for a dip in the win column.
Florida State has shown it can play tough (and well, when the occasion demands it), but this one feels like it favors Clemson.
Nov. 7 Auburn at Texas A&M
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Projected Line: Texas A&M (-3)
Little known fact: Since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012, the road team has won every game in this series. That trend would favor the road Tigers in this year's game, right?
Perhaps, but both of these teams are so even at the moment that the trend could easily be broken. Right now, the Aggies would be a three-point favorite in our hypothetical line. Considering that being the home team is good for a few points, that shows just how even things are.
Both programs have upgraded their defenses by bringing in coordinators John Chavis (A&M) and Will Muschamp (Auburn). There's talent everywhere on offense, so expect a lot of points.
The last two meetings have been decided by a combined touchdown. To put it another way, the losing team has scored 38 and 41 points in those games. It's going to come down to which defense can force a key stop or turnover.
Nov. 21 Michigan State at Ohio State
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Projected Line: Ohio State (-10.5)
Ohio State-Michigan remains the Big Ten's best rivalry—more on that later—but the Buckeyes' recent divisional battles with Michigan State have been fun too.
Now that the Buckeyes are rolling, though, they're the team to beat in college football. Ohio State really turned heads last season when it went to Michigan State and came away with a 49-37 win. Now that this year's game is in Columbus, it's an even tougher task for the Spartans.
There are important coordinators that each side is replacing. Michigan State lost defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi (finally) to a head coaching job at Pitt. Ohio State play-caller Tom Herman became the head coach at Houston.
Still, the Buckeyes could win with any of their three quarterbacks: Braxton Miller, J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones. Since Jones is the only healthy one, he'd play if the game were tomorrow.
And that would be a bad thing for any defense.
Nov. 21 USC at Oregon
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Projected Line: Oregon (-3.5)
This could very well be a preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game.
There's not much else that can be said about each team that hasn't already been said. Oregon's starting quarterback is to be determined. USC has the talent to compete for a Pac-12 title, but does it have the defense and can it finish in close games.
Playing in Eugene is never easy, so the Ducks get some home-field points for that. However, USC shocked Oregon in 2011 by winning 38-35. Could the Trojans do it again? A Marcus Mariota-less Oregon is such an unknown right now.
A late touchdown could be the difference here.
Nov. 27 Baylor at TCU
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Projected Line: TCU (-7)
You've probably noticed that this list is light on Big 12 games. That's because there are only two teams that move the meter: Baylor and TCU. Beyond them, there's a significant drop-off. Furthermore, the Bears and Frogs won't meet until late November.
It works out perfectly, though. The Big 12's best current rivalry—which says as much about the state of Oklahoma and Texas as anything else—could have serious playoff implications.
You want offense? You get offense. Baylor and TCU finished No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in points scored per game last season. The Frogs return practically everyone from that offense too, along with co-coordinators Sonny Cumbie and Doug Meacham.
"When Meacham and Cumbie stepped on campus," quarterback Trevone Boykin told Chuck Carlton of The Dallas Morning News, "they totally changed the atmosphere on our side of the ball."
Both teams felt like they should have been playoff-bound a year ago, but TCU probably felt especially robbed. Blowing a late lead against Baylor in Waco last season was the only thing separating TCU from a perfect season. Something says Gary Patterson's team will be looking for some revenge at home.
Nov. 28 Ohio State at Michigan
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Projected Line: Ohio State (-17)
Ohio State expects to compete for another national championship in 2015. Michigan will be fortunate if it gets to a bowl game. The only reason why this line isn't bigger is because it's a rivalry. Even in the final moments of the Brady Hoke era, Michigan was tied with the Buckeyes in the third quarter of last year's edition.
Next season's game isn't going to have national implications. But you know why it's on here. The reason is pictured above.
Nov. 28, 2015, will mark the first game between new Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh and Ohio State coach Urban Meyer. Two of the top coaches in the business, squaring off against one another in what will hopefully be the first of many games.
Harbaugh will have his guys ready to play, and the Wolverines defense might be able to hold its own. Ultimately, though, these programs are at two different levels. Ohio State is rolling. Michigan is in a desperate rebuilding stage. It's too much.
Nov. 28 Alabama at Auburn
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Projected Line: Auburn (-4)
In a million years, did you ever think Alabama would have Auburn gassed by the end of the game? That's basically what happened in last year's version of the Iron Bowl, which the Tide won 55-44. Again, that shows just how much value Lane Kiffin brought as offensive coordinator.
Could Alabama win in a shootout against Auburn again—and on the road, no less?
There are so many fascinating coordinator-on-coordinator matchups. Alabama's defense, led by Kirby Smart, against Gus Malzahn and Rhett Lashlee. Kiffin vs. Will Muschamp.
The coaching star power is phenomenal.
Ultimately, can the Tigers defense make enough stops against Alabama's rebuilt offense?
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
