SEC or 'The Field' for the 2015 College Football Playoff?
It seems like only yesterday when the college football world was collectively singing the SEC's praises and watched in awe as the conference ripped off seven straight national titles.
Suddenly, though, the unexpected happened—a drought.
The SEC missed out on the last two national titles, with Auburn losing to Florida State in the 2014 BCS National Championship Game following the 2013 season and Alabama falling to Ohio State in the 2015 Allstate Sugar Bowl national semifinal following the 2014 season.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
One glance at the futures board on OddsShark.com, and you'll notice something different at the top—a noticeable absence of the typical SEC logjam. Sure, Alabama is still in the mix, but you have to fall all the way down to sixth to find the next SEC team—Auburn, which is tied with Oregon at +2000.
Out of the top 10 most likely teams to win the title, only the Tigers and Tide hail from the SEC, with LSU chiming in at 11th at +2600.
| Ohio State | +450 |
| TCU | +800 |
| Alabama | +900 |
| Baylor | +1700 |
| USC | +1800 |
| Oregon | +2000 |
| Auburn | +2000 |
| Clemson | +2400 |
| Michigan State | +2400 |
| UCLA | +2500 |
| LSU | +2600 |
If given $1,000 and a free airplane ticket to Las Vegas to place a bet on the 2015-2016 college football playoff, would you take the SEC or the field?
Without a doubt, "the field" is the safer play.
"It's all about the field right now," said Todd Fuhrman, Vegas insider for Fox Sports 1. "The SEC will be hard pressed to win a national championship again in 2015. Ohio State, TCU, and USC all return experienced quarterbacks and appear poised to be in the playoff discussion all season long while uncertainty under center, especially for contenders in the SEC West, will limit the division's upside."
Ohio State was ahead of schedule last year, and it won a national title in emphatic fashion. The Buckeyes return three Heisman Trophy candidates at quarterback, another at running back in Ezekiel Elliott, stud wide receiver Michael Thomas, ultra-versatile Jalin Marshall, defensive lineman Joey Bosa, linebacker Darron Lee and safety Vonn Bell, among many others.
Last season wasn't a fluke or a hot run down the stretch. Head coach Urban Meyer's Buckeyes have staying power in the vastly improving Big Ten.
There's a problem, though, in the form of Michigan State.
The Spartans got good news this offseason when both quarterback Connor Cook and defensive end Shilique Calhoun both passed up the chance at jumping to the NFL to return to college to give it another go in East Lansing. Head coach Mark Dantonio has put together a fantastic run over the last two seasons that includes at 15-1 Big Ten record, one conference title (2013) and only three total losses.
USC is loaded with young talent, has a Heisman Trophy contender in Cody Kessler at quarterback and is squarely in the mix of a Pac-12 that will look much different without Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota taking the snaps.
Florida State isn't even listed on OddsShark.com's odds board but has 4- and 5-star kids up and down the roster—as does conference foe Clemson. TCU is loaded with returning talent, and conference rival Baylor, which beat the Horned Frogs last year, will benefit from the return of defensive end Shawn Oakman and ability of head coach Art Briles to consistently find ways to reach the end zone.
It's clear from the last two seasons that the rest of the college football world has caught up to the SEC from a recruiting, facilities and salary standpoint, which has created a more level playing field than the sport has seen in years past.
When you toss in the four-team playoff—which provides more of an opportunity for losses—"the field" is a much safer play.
That doesn't mean the SEC won't win the title. Alabama and Auburn will be squarely in the mix with several other teams nipping at their heels. But there's parity within both divisions with the strength remaining squarely in the West, which means the likelihood of both divisions cannibalizing themselves for two different reasons could come back to haunt the conference in 2015.
"In my opinion the entire East still appears a few years away from title contention, meaning it's 'West or bust' if the hardware is headed down south," said Fuhrman.
There hasn't been an undefeated SEC West champ since LSU in 2011, and that Tigers team lost to fellow SEC West foe Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game. If one doesn't run the table in 2015, the absence of the perception of SEC power could, at best, place it in an unfavorable matchup in the playoff.
At worst, it could be sitting on New Year's Eve.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on Sirius 93, XM 208.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats are courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted, and all recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports' composite rankings. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
