Ubaldo Jimenez: A Fantasy Ace in Coors Field?

It wasn’t long ago that Coors Field was the place that pitchers went to die.  The effect on home and road splits was dramatic and brought a clear message: stay away from starting most pitchers at Coors Field, but in almost any other ballpark, use them at will! 

If you were a fantasy owner debating whether or not to start that fringe—pitch and ditch type—player you knew not to even entertain the idea of plugging him in. 

Of course, if you wanted your ERA to escalate to a new level, then starting someone like that was certainly a novel idea.  You could be a No. 1 starter and still have trouble conquering the hitter’s haven that was in Colorado.

Fast-forward to the year 2009, Aug. 16 to be exact, and take a look at the Colorodo Rockies’ rotation.  Before you do so, realize the Rockies rank 10th in the majors in ERA, sixth in the National League. 

They also have an All-Star representative who’s a starting pitcher in Jason Marquis.  Four out of the five starters in their rotation are usable to some extent in fantasy staffs; and three of the five have an ERA below four. 

The closer also seems to have taken a liking to Coors Field as well; he’s projected to shatter his career high in saves and have an ERA in the low threes and a WHIP near one on top of it!  Who would’ve thought?

If you’ve watched some of the Rockies’ starters throw, there’s no question as to which one has the best raw stuff on the staff.  He’s 25-years-old, pitching in his third season (not counting one where he threw just 7.2 innings), and has seen drastic improvements in his numbers in every year he’s played. 

That pitcher, Ubaldo Jimenez, has become one of the better young starters in baseball—even to the extent of calling him a staff ace and number one starter in fantasy leagues?  That seems a bit ambitious, but let me show you why it’s not all that hard to fathom...

This year Jimenez has thrown 158.1 innings, allowed 133 hits, walked 63 and struck out 140.  He also has a 3.47 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  Sure Jimenez ranks 27th in all of baseball in ERA, which doesn’t sound too amazing, until you see what he’s done recently.

Since the All-Star break Jimenez has four wins, a 2.53 ERA and .177 AVG against.  A close look will reveal that over the past three weeks, Jimenez has started four games and allowed just four runs in 29.2 innings—a 1.82 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP.

Breaking down Jimenez’s pitching stats month-by-month, he’s really only suffered one bad month.  In April he had a 7.58 ERA, which was certainly buoyed by his 17 walks in 19 innings.  Since then his ERA has been usable, if not astounding: 2.89 in May, 2.89 in June, 4.18 in July, and 1.19 in August.

In case those numbers weren’t enticing enough, Jimenez has pitched better at home, 3.31 ERA, compared to 3.60 on the road.

Those monthly rates are definitely intriguing, but is there more to be giddy about?  It’s the significant improvements he’s made in each of his first three full seasons that should have owners optimistic for his future. 

While his walks were up in 2008 (even by his standards), let’s chalk that up to the burdens of pitching in your full major league season, as he did make significant improvements after the All-Star break.  Just take a look to see what I mean:

2007 – 82 IP, 70 H, 37 BB, 68 K, 4.28 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

2008 – 198.2 IP, 182 H, 103 BB, 172 K, 3.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

2009- 158.1 IP, 133 H, 63 BB, 140 K, 3.47 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

While his walks numbers were extremely high in 2008, understand that after the All-Star break, Jimenez buckled down.  He had a .221 AVG against, and saw his SO/BB increase from 1.54 to 1.86.  When limits his walks, you can easily see that Jimenez becomes one of the toughest pitchers to score against. 

Even with such high walk numbers, Jimenez is effectively wild – walking more than the norm, but keeping hitters off-balance with his great stuff and funky delivery.

Throughout the minor leagues, which totaled 655 innings, Jimenez walked enough batters it often made Oliver Perez look like Greg Maddux.  With a 325 walks, a 4.3 BB/9, Jimenez toed a very thin line.  He had a 4.34 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in his minor league career, but the WHIP was definitely inflated because of his walk numbers. 

Now in the majors, Jimenez still has a pretty high 4.2 BB/9 rate for his career. This season, he’s seen his walks drop from 4.1 per nine during 2007 and 4.7 per nine in 2008, to 3.6 per nine this season.  if Jimenez can hover around that number, we have the making of a top-tier fantasy starter.

Jimenez’s 2009 numbers are for real.  He’s not getting overly lucky, with a .290 BABIP.  Over the course of his career, he has improved his HR/FB rate to 6.3 percent; a definite step up over the 11.5 percent in 2007 and 6.9 percent in ’08. 

Jimenez’s minor league K/9 was an 8.8 – and his major league rate sits at 7.7, so his 7.96 rate is certainly believable.  Furthermore, his FIP of 3.30 shows that his ERA could be in store for an even greater improvement.

By no means am I proclaiming Jimenez as the next Tim Lincecum.  I doubt he’ll ever have an ERA in the low-twos.  But with power stuff that sits in the mid-90s and a projectible frame, Jimenez certainly has the ability to vault into the top starter discussion. 

First though, he’ll have to build off the positive aspects of this season.

What do you guys think of Jimenez?  Does he have a chance of becoming a top-tier starter?