Biggest Sleepers in Power 5 Conferences in 2015

Sleepers contend for power-conference titles every season.

It sounds crazy to pick a team with a losing record to win the Big 12 or SEC, but TCU (4-8 in 2013) won the former in 2014, and Auburn (3-9 in 2012) won the latter in 2013.

The following aren't teams we're picking to win each power conference, but they're at least worth considering. Obviously they're long shots, but so were TCU and Auburn. Why write them off so soon?

Picking each team required looking at precedent. TCU, for example, fixed its biggest weakness (offense) by hiring Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie last offseason. Once it paired a working offense with its always strong defense, it morphed into a Big 12 contender.

Building off that, we looked for teams that do at least one thing well and worked to fix their major problem areas. We also looked for teams with X-factors that give them a higher ceiling. Lastly, we avoided teams with so much hype that calling them "sleepers" felt wrong (major examples: Michigan, Tennessee and Arkansas).

Sound off below, and let us know what you think.

ACC — Pittsburgh Panthers

USA TODAY Sports

2014 Record: 6-7 (4-4)

What They Already Do Well

Control the football.

Pittsburgh had one of the most efficient offenses in the country last season, finishing No. 8 in methodical drives, per Football Outsiders. In layman's terms, the Panthers ran 10 or more plays on 20.5 percent of their possessions, thanks in large part to running back James Conner, who was named 2014 ACC Player of the Year.

Where They Must Improve

Creating defensive havoc.

Pittsburgh's defense was anemic in 2014, finishing No. 99 in the country in havoc rate (percentage of plays that end in tackles for loss, forced fumbles and passes defended), per Football Outsiders. The result was a unit that struggled on standard downs and finished No. 116 in the country in forced turnovers (14). 

Why They'll Improve There

Because they hired head coach Pat Narduzzi.

Talk about the perfect fit. Last year's Michigan State defense—for which Narduzzi was the coordinator—finished No. 9 in the country in havoc rate and No. 3 in forced turnovers. "I don't think there's a team in the country that does what we do," he told Adam Rittenberg of ESPN.com in June. "We're more cutting edge [with] zone pressure."

X-Factor

The Chad Voytik-Tyler Boyd connection.

Pitt has one of the best QB-WR duos in the conference, highlighted by Boyd, who checks all the boxes of a future first-round draft pick. The Panthers won't change what they do on offense, but it helps to have a star receiver on passing downs. No returning power-conference player caught more 10-yard passes than Boyd (55) last season.

Five Players with All-ACC Potential

• RB James Conner
• WR Tyler Boyd
• DB Reggie Mitchell
• OG Dorian Johnson
• DE Rori Blair

Big Ten — Purdue Boilermakers

Eric Francis/Getty Images

2014 Record: 3-9 (1-7)

What They Already Do Well

Control the line of scrimmage.

Purdue's offensive line finished No. 47 in adjusted line yards (run blocking) and No. 46 in adjusted sack rate (pass blocking) last season, per Football Outsiders. Only 24 other teams placed both units inside the top 50. The Boilermakers return all five starters up front, so these numbers should actually improve in 2015.

Where They Must Improve

Passing offense.

Despite that solid protection, Purdue finished No. 103 in the country in passing yards per game (187.5), No. 124 in quarterback rating (102.02) and No. 127 in yards per attempt (5.2). On that last front, only SMU (4.7) finished worse. Dual-threat quarterback Austin Appleby showed promise in the middle of the season but regressed at the end, and Week 1 starter Danny Etling struggled the entire season.

Why They'll Improve There

Because they finally have experience.

Offensive coordinator John Shoop can do better than the past two years indicate. His top five wide receivers were underclassmen in 2013, as were six of his top seven last season. He finally has experience on the outside, and although the results have been ugly, he finally has it at quarterback too. If Danny Anthrop comes back in May after ACL surgery, this passing game should improve in a hurry.

X-Factor

The schedule.

Yes, this is the most important part. Purdue plays in the Big Ten West, where it need not compete against Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State and Michigan. It travels to East Lansing for a crossover game, but otherwise the schedule is manageable, and the bar for sneaking into the Big Ten title game is lower against Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa than the foursome mentioned earlier.

Five Players with All-Big Ten Potential

• CB Frankie Williams
• OC Robert Kugler
• LB Ja'Whaun Bentley
• OT David Hedelin
• DT Jake Replogle

Big 12 — Texas Tech Red Raiders

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2014 Record: 4-8 (2-7)

What They Already Do Well

Create big plays.

Texas Tech averaged 10 or more yards per play on 22.2 percent of its drives last season—the No. 8 rate in America, per Football Outsiders. Running back Justin Stockton and receiver Jakeem Grant are two of the most explosive players in college football, and it helps to have a pair of capable quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes and Davis Webb) behind center and four longtime starters on the offensive line.

Where They Must Improve

Turnover margin.

The Red Raiders have turnover issues on both sides of the ball, having accrued a margin on minus-40 the past three seasons. Last year was accordingly hard to watch, as they finished No. 110 in the country in turnovers forced (15) and No. 117 in turnovers lost (28).

Why They'll Improve There

Because they hired defensive coordinator David Gibbs.

No team has forced more turnovers the past two seasons than Houston, were Gibbs previously held the same position. Plus, Texas Tech just finished No. 120 in turnovers luck, per Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall. Turnovers luck, which measures factors that are (mostly) out of a team's control, tends to regress to the mean.

X-Factor

Reinforcements up the middle.

The Red Raiders add a pair of blue-chip recruits to the weakest part of their team. Inside linebacker Mike Mitchell, the No. 58 overall player in the 2013 class, is eligible after transferring from Ohio State last offseason, and defensive tackle Breiden Fehoko, the No. 50 overall player in the 2015 class, enrolled early for spring camp.

Five Players with All-Big 12 Potential

• LB Pete Robertson
• OT Le'Raven Clark
• WR Jakeem Grant
• LB Mike Mitchell
• QB Patrick Mahomes

Pac-12 — California Bears

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2014 Record: 5-7 (3-6)

What They Already Do Well

Move the football.

Cal finished No. 13 in the country in yards per game (495.2) and No. 11 in points per game (38.3) last season. It was deceptively balanced too, throwing just 95 more passes than it had rushing attempts (535 to 440). As a result, the Bears converted first downs on 76.7 of their drives—the No. 8 rate in America, per Football Outsiders.

Where They Must Improve

Defense.

Nothing more specific: just defense. Traditional and advanced metrics both confirm the obvious (the latter via Football Outsiders):

• Traditional Metrics (Rank)
• Points Per Game: 39.8 (123)
• Yards Per Game: 511.8 (124)
• Yards Per Play: 6.27 (107)

• Advanced Metrics (Rank)
• Success Rate: 47.5% (119)
• Havoc Rate: 11.5% (123)
• Available Yards: 58.5 (123)

So…yeah. That's a problem.

Why They'll Improve There

Experience.

Cal returns nine defensive starters and 12 of its top 13 tacklers. A two-deep ravaged with underclassmen is one year older, as if head coach Sonny Dykes planned it this way: intentionally playing for the future the past two seasons. Whether this defense can actually be good is up for debate, but it will definitely be better. It has to be.

X-Factor

Jared Goff is better than good.

The team with the better quarterback will always stand a chance, and Goff is one of the five best quarterbacks in America. He is 6'4", wiry and shows "mechanics and natural accuracy as a thrower," per Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl of ESPN.com. If Goff makes the leap from great QB to great QB, Cal will win some games it should lose.

Five Players with All-Pac-12 Potential

• QB Jared Goff
• LB Michael Barton
• WR Kenny Lawler
• OL Chris Borrayo
• WR Bryce Treggs

SEC — Texas A&M Aggies

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

2014 Record: 8-5 (3-5)

What They Already Do Well

Offensive balance.

Texas A&M finished last season No. 20 in rushing efficiency and No. 19 in passing efficiency, per the S&P+ ratings at Football Outsiders. Only 12 other teams placed both units inside the top 20. It returns eight offensive starters and adds 5-star receiver Christian Kirk, so there's no reason to expect that will change...unless it's for the better.

Where They Must Improve

Allowing chunk yardage.

The Aggies allowed 193 plays of 10-plus yards last season. They surrendered at least one first down on 74.6 percent of their possessions—the No. 114 rate in the country, per Football Outsiders. As a result, they finished outside the top 100 in total defense, allowing more than 450 yards per game and 5.91 yards per play.

Why They'll Improve There

Because they hired defensive coordinator John Chavis.

"The Chief" is one of the best in the business and has been for roughly two decades. He's held this same position on national title-winning teams at Tennessee and LSU. Last year's Tigers defense finished No. 2 in the country with just 131 plays of 10-plus yards allowed. Its first-down rate (58.8 percent) was a top-15 score as well.

X-Factor

Kyle Allen making the leap.

It's the same deal as Cal with Jared Goff. Allen was the No. 1 quarterback in the 2014 recruiting class and played well last year after relieving Kenny Hill. He's a better athlete than most people realize and has the non-hyperbolic upside of Aaron Rodgers. Is there any good reason he can't become the SEC's best quarterback? If he does, Texas A&M can win this conference (if not more).

Five Players with All-SEC Potential

• DE Myles Garrett
• WR Josh Reynolds
• OT Germain Ifedi
• QB Kyle Allen
• WR Speedy Noil

Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings.