Jason Bartlett: Buy or Sell?

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Every year there are players who defy projections.

Whether it’s a breakthrough season or a campaign marked by underachievement, it’s next to impossible to project the statistics of every player precisely. The only measure we can take is to utilize past stats, along with underlying rates and current performance, to make our best educated guesses as to how players will perform in the future. 

Not even the most sophisticated projection systems are 100 percent correct. As a fantasy owner, it’s crucial that you take a look at what a hitter has done throughout his career.

What are the chances that the anomaly you see in a player’s stats becomes more of the norm? How old is the player? Is there room for improvement? Or should his numbers begin to fall back to Earth?

All of these questions are worth asking yourself before you draft or trade for a player. Needless to say, this is not an absolute science; if it were, fantasy victors would be crowned after their preseason drafts in April.

With all of these factors in mind, I think it’s worth taking a look at Tampa Bay Rays’ 29-year-old shortstop Jason Bartlett. He’s one of those guys undergoing a breakthrough campaign this season, one that many could’ve never predicted.

As of Aug. 15, Bartlett has 11 home runs, 55 RBI, 21 steals, and a .339 average. He’s quietly emerged as one of the best shortstops this year.

But will it last? Is this type of performance that should continue into next season—and even the future?

Bartlett was named to his first All-Star game this season. Additionally, he’s been on a tear since being moved to the leadoff spot in the order, with a .357/.460/.643 line. Those numbers provide just a glimpse as to how well Bartlett’s performed this season.

Bartlett’s transformed into one of the top shortstops in all of baseball. Just look at where he ranks in the American League (again, as of Aug. 15).

• 3rd in the AL in BA, with a .339 mark.
  
• 8th in the AL in OBP, with a .391 mark.
  
• 6th in the AL in OPS, with a .934 mark. (And this is coming from a shortstop, which makes it even more impressive.)
  
• 9th in the AL in SB, with 21 on the year.
  
• 10th in the AL in SLG, with a .541 mark for the year.

After seeing his numbers dip in July, where he hit just .247 with one homer and seven RBI, Bartlett has really turned it on in August. He is batting .400, with three homers and 12 RBI.

The numbers are remarkable; I don’t doubt that the least bit. What I do question is whether or not Bartlett can produce at this pace into next season and the future. I don’t think he will be able to, but, then again, stranger things have happened.

Taking a quick look at his minor league stats, Bartlett had only 23 homers in 2,026 at-bats. He also batted .298 and did have 113 doubles and 103 steals. I wouldn’t exactly call him Adam Dunn at the shortstop position, but he does have some extra-base power.

Fast-forward to Bartlett at the major league level. He has totalled 1,871 at-bats, hit 22 homers, stolen 80 bases, and produced a career .288 average. Let me remind you, Bartlett’s had 11 of his 22 home runs this season. Should we expect him to all of a sudden be this top-tier option at short?

For one, Bartlett is getting extremely lucky with his balls hit in play. He has a .399 BABIP, which trumps his career .332 BABIP by a huge margin. For his career, he’s never surpassed the .354 mark, and he did that with the Twins in 2006 when he played in only 99 games.

Power-wise, Bartlett is putting up a very respectable .202 IsoP. He’s never had one above .136 in his life...and that was in 58 games at Triple-A in 2006. I doubt the power will continue for much longer.

Currently, Bartlett is hitting line drives at a rate higher than ever: 25.9 percent compared with his 21.4 percent career mark. He’s barely hitting any ground balls, with just a 33.2 percent rate compared to his 43.7 percent career average.

What he’s lacking in his ground ball rate, he’s gained in his fly-ball percentage. All of a sudden, Bartlett’s become a fly-ball-hitting machine. This season Bartlett has hit fly balls 40.9 percent of the time. His career average is 34.9 percent. Last season Bartlett hit fly balls at just 30.3 percent.

He’s capitalizing on his fly balls at an alarmingly high rate for him: 9.8 percent. Compare that with his career four percent average, and I’m sure you get what I mean when I say this newfound mid-10s power stroke is extremely dubious at best. At 29 years old, he’s becoming this type of hitter? I sincerely doubt that.

Bartlett should continue to be a usable shortstop. Anyone with great bat control and batting average skills, along with above-average speed—he’s had 20-plus steals in every full season at the major league level—should be starting for any fantasy team. I just don’t think the power is for real.

What do you guys think? Will Bartlett continue this type of production into next season? Or do you see a falloff imminent?