15 Bold Predictions for 2016 College Football Recruiting Class
We've come to expect the unexpected in college football recruiting, which is part of the allure as we follow along from the start of a cycle all the way through national signing day.
It's ultimately a cluster of well-paid coaches delivering sales pitches to undecided teenagers who also have friends, family and fans in their ear.
Expectations are in place for every collegiate recruiting department in America, and they are waiting to be exceeded or unfulfilled next February.
As we step forward with the class of 2016, here's are 15 predictions that might go against public consensus.
Miami Will Fall Outside the Top 10 in National Recruiting Rankings
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The Hurricanes currently sit atop 247Sports' national composite recruiting rankings, due in large part to sheer volume. Miami holds 17 commitments in its 2016 class, which is eight prospects more than any other FBS program (Mississippi State and Ole Miss follow behind with nine each).
The haul includes eight 4-star players, headlined by in-state pledges Jack Allison (quarterback), Sam Bruce (receiver) and Shaquille Quarterman (linebacker). It also features a trio of talented juniors from nearby Guliver Prep (receiver Dionte Mullins, safety Cedrick Wright and defensive end Joseph Jackson).
However, this strong start could turn out to be fool's gold. Players will be tempted by other options as their offer lists expand, especially local athletes who jumped on an early Miami offer.
Ultimately, the fortunes of this class depend on how head coach Al Golden fares in his fifth season with the program. A 16-16 record against ACC opponents has him fighting for job security, and he's failed to win a bowl games since the program's postseason ban was lifted.
You can look back to last winter, when Brady Hoke appeared set to assemble a top-five 2015 class at Michigan, for evidence of how quickly things can spiral out of control in recruiting. By the time Hoke was fired, the Wolverines had lost two 5-star prospects and kept grips on just six commitments.
For Miami, success next signing day may rely on its fortunes this fall. Based on this regime's track record, confidence is wavering at best.
Top-Rated WR Nate Craig-Myers Will Stay in His Home State
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Florida playmaker Nate Craig-Myers may be the face of Auburn's 2016 recruiting class, but will that last long?
The nation's No. 1 receiver committed to the Tigers last summer, shortly after expressing sentiments to play college football beyond the Sunshine State.
"You want to go out and view different parts of the world, and down in Florida I have a lot of friends and family," he told Miles Joseph of SBNation in May 2014. "I'm trying to get away from any potential distractions. I want to be focused and keep my head on right."
Craig-Myers' outlook has changed in recent months, opening the door for other options near home and far away from SEC territory.
“It's probably at 70 percent (committed) right now,” he told Josh Newberg of 247Sports in January. “Auburn, USC, Florida State and Ohio State are probably my top four.”
He is set to visit the Seminoles in late February. No one should be shocked if Seminoles head coach Jimbo Fisher eventually flips the 5-star target or new Florida head coach Jim McElwain manages to help the Gators make up ground.
Ohio State Will Land at Least Two Top-10 Running Backs
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The rich will get richer, which is typically the way it goes for college programs in the aftermath of a national championship. Urban Meyer already claims five commitments from players who rate among the top 10 at their respective position in 247Sports' composite rankings.
That group of standouts includes Kareem Walker (New Jersey) and George Hill (Ohio), who are rated No. 1 and No. 4, respectively, on the national running back board. Walker pledged to the Buckeyes during the team's title-game victory, while Hill provided an early boost by committing last June.
They both offer tremendous promise to an Ohio State backfield that will add 4-star prospect Michael Weber this summer.
Walker has gained 2,771 yards and 38 touchdowns on the ground since 2013 at DePaul Catholic, rising to No. 7 overall in 2016 recruit rankings.
Hill accepted far fewer carries than Hubbard High School teammate and 2015 Michigan State signee Larry Scott during the past two seasons, but he still managed to rush for 2,281 yards and 28 touchdowns during that span, per MaxPreps.
Teams will certainly attempt to snatch away both backs, but there's a chance Meyer further adds to this stockpile. Ohio State is one of several top contenders for in-state rusher Demario McCall, who ranks third nationally at the position.
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Texas Will Make a Push for Nation's No. 1 Overall Recruit
4 of 15The Longhorns made Texas A&M fans nervous during a frenzied final stretch toward signing day 2015. Texas hosted 5-star Aggies quarterback commit Kyler Murray in late January, and he seemed ready to reconsider his allegiance before ultimately sticking with his initial pledge.
Expect Charlie Strong to make similar efforts in the recruitment of Murray's high school teammate.
Offensive tackle Gregory Little—a freakish athlete at 6'5", 282 pounds—is the point of emphasis for Texas this time around. He spent the past two seasons protecting Murray at Allen High School en route to state championships.
Little, the top overall recruit in composite rankings, is slated to follow his quarterback to College Station. He committed to Texas A&M shortly after his sophomore year, though interest elsewhere continues to mount.
Alabama, Ohio State and UCLA have extended scholarships in 2015, but each is faced with the task of prying him away from Kevin Sumlin. It's difficult to imagine many teams having much success in that regard, but Strong must continue attempts to track down his state's crown-jewel prospect.
Lyndell Wilson and Marlon Davidson Will Become a 10-Star Tandem
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It's rare to find two 5-star prospects who hail from the same town, but a pair on the same team?
Practically unheard of.
Linebacker Lyndell "Mack" Wilson and defensive end Marlon Davidson do damage together at Carver High School in Montgomery, Alabama. Some big decisions still separate them from potentially playing together in college, but it's a legimiate possibility.
The duo combined for 143 tackles and 13.5 sacks last season and have intentions of teaming up beyond 2015. They told Ethan Bernal of the Montgomery Advertiser in December that they will "more than likely" play together in college.
Alabama and Auburn are the favorites to make a "package deal" happen, though Wilson named Oregon his overall leader in late January.
TCU and Baylor Will Both Break Through with Top-30 Classes
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There's plenty of talent to go around in Texas—evidenced by strong 2015 classes for the Longhorns and Aggies—and a pair of programs are prepared to capitalize while moving up the college football food chain.
TCU and Baylor both narrowly missed out on the inaugural College Football Playoff in 2014, but they certainly gained expanded national exposure. While neither team cracked the top 30 in national recruiting rankings this year, the Bears managed to flip 5-star quarterback Jarrett Stidham from Texas Tech, and TCU nearly pried 5-star defensive tackle Daylon Mack away from Texas A&M.
The new recruiting cycle is off to a splendid start for these Big 12 title contenders.
TCU is currently eighth in national class rankings, bolstered by commitments from four 4-star recruits. Baylor is situated at 12th with a haul headlined by 5-star offensive tackle Patrick Hudson.
Expect both programs to slip a bit by the end of this cycle but finish among the country's top 30 performers next signing day.
A Top-Tier Quarterback Will Flip His Commitment Before Next Season
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Think back to last year and how much things eventually shifted in the quarterback landscape before signing day.
Ricky Town flipped his commitment from Alabama to USC, leading Blake Barnett to land in Tuscaloosa after decommitting from Notre Dame, leading Brandon Wimbush to bail on Penn State for a spot with the Fighting Irish, leading Tommy Stevens to flip from Indiana to the Nittany Lions.
Get all that?
The quarterback carousel annually alters recruiting fortunes for programs across the country. We've already seen examples of it during this cycle.
Shea Patterson, a 5-star passer, initially committed to Arizona. He later pledged to Ole Miss in February.
It's imperative for teams to maintain commitments from elite quarterbacks, who are often capable of serving as catalysts for classes by luring in other talent. Georgia (Jacob Eason), LSU (Feleipe Franks) and Florida State (Malik Henry) are among programs who will be playing defense when it comes to keeping top passers.
USC Will Further Enhance Its Nationwide Recruiting Reach
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If USC football wants to come all the way "back," it needs more than just Pac-12 victories. The Trojans built a dynasty last decade by drawing talent from across the country; now that detrimental scholarship sanctions have been lifted, it's time to truly re-establish a talent-laden roster.
Second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian flexed some recruiting muscles during the 2015 cycle, securing signatures from 5-star Georgia offensive tackle Chuma Edoga, Texas running back Ronald Jones and a pair of top Utah linebackers (Osa Masina and Porter Gustin).
USC will always build its foundation with West Coast prospects, but players from other parts of America provide the pivotal supplemental pieces that result in sustained success.
The Trojans landed Michigan's top overall 2016 player in linebacker Daelin Hayes and have made inroads with several non-regional stars. Safety Deontay Anderson (Texas), cornerback Levonta Taylor (Virginia) and wide receiver Mykel Jones (Louisiana) are among key targets who've commanded USC's attention far beyond California borders.
It's important to remember that many members of this high school generation grew up idolizing the Trojans during Pete Carroll's tenure. Some of their earliest college football memories include Reggie Bush weaving his way through defenses, and those long-established sentiments still help USC recruit today.
A Pair of Mississippi Programs Will Produce Top-20 Recruiting Classes
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The Magnolia State claimed center stage during much of an unpredictable 2014 season, as Mississippi State and Ole Miss each looked like serious playoff contenders deep into autumn. That success—and a couple of motivated head coaches—have things on the upswing in Oxford and Starkville.
No SEC team currently holds more 2016 commitments than Mississippi State and Ole Miss (nine each).
The Bulldogs have risen to fourth in national class rankings by blending quantity and quality, including commitments from top-rated junior college recruits Tommy Champion (offensive tackle) and Cameron Myers (athlete).
Ole Miss ranks second, behind only Miami, in class rankings. The group features a 5-star quarterback-receiver duo in Shea Patterson and DeKaylin Metcalf, along with two 4-star running backs (Denzel Mitchell and Justin Connor).
This seems to be an extremely impressive crop of in-state Mississippi talent for both programs to target. It should help add up to successful signing days on each rival campus.
Florida Will Finish Ahead of Michigan as Marquee Programs Begin New Eras
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The Jims—Harbaugh and McElwain—commanded plenty of attention late in the 2015 recruiting cycle as they aimed to improve tattered, inherited recruiting classes at famous programs. Both pulled in their fare share of fresh talent, though McElwain gained an edge on signing day by landing 5-star tandem CeCe Jefferson and Martez Ivey.
After scrambling to salvage the 2015 class, these first-year coaches will be more fairly judged by what they accomplish on the recruiting trail with a full year of work. Neither have made much of an impact in the 2016 cycle to this point, combining for just three total pledges.
McElwain and Harbaugh will both pitch the potential of early playing time as they attempt to load rosters with "their guys." The anticipation here is that Florida will emerge with a stronger 2016 class than Michigan.
Harbaugh must battle reining national champion Urban Meyer throughout Big Ten country and is facing his biggest test as a recruiter after college stints that preceded his NFL tenure.
McElwain, who preivously recruited SEC territory as an Alabama assistant, seems better-equipped to make a more significant leap in recruiting this year. Of course, it helps that he's targeting players on a home turf that traditionally produces more elite talent than any state except perhaps California and Texas.
UCLA Will Fail to Match 2015 Recruiting Success
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The Bruins sprinted to the finish line on signing day 2015, landing last-minute commitments from 5-star running back Soso Jamabo, 4-star tight end Chris Clark, 4-star offensive lineman Josh Wariboko and 4-star wide receiver Cordell Broadus. UCLA also seemingly secured top Georgia linebacker Roquan Smith, but he ultimately backed off that decision and will stay in his home state.
A scintillating signing day at USC and UCLA have college football fans excited about the future of this cross-town rivalry, but can Jim Mora maintain the recruiting level that netted him a top-10 class in 2015?
Pac-12 title contention would certainly help, along with a dazzling debut from top-rated 2015 quarterback Josh Rosen. If the team stumbles out of the gate, it could slow progress on the recruiting path.
We're projecting a bit of a come-down next signing day. Nothing disastrous, just a result that doesn't quite measure up to the memorable late surge we witnessed this year.
Rutgers Will Win Its First Major Big Ten Battle by Landing Top In-State QB
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New Jersey is typically a top-10 manufacturer of high school football talent in America. Rutgers—the official state university of New Jersey—still struggles to keep elite talent home, and until that changes there will be a bit of a cap on program growth for the Big Ten newcomer.
Recent top in-state targets like Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama), Saeed Blacknall (Penn State) and Jabrill Peppers (Michigan) are just a few examples of prospects who've opted to play beyond state borders. Per 247Sports' composite rankings, Rutgers has secured signatures from just one top-10 New Jersey prospect during the past three cycles (four such recruits signed with the Scarlet Knights in 2012).
There's a strong chance that trend changes in the coming year, and Rutgers legacy Jarrett Guarantano could serve as catalyst. The 4-star passer is the son of Scarlet Knights Hall of Famer James Guarantano and received an offer from the team before his first varsity start.
Plenty of programs have joined the pursuit since then—including Big Ten foes Ohio State and Michigan State—but Guarantano continues to reciprocate heavy interest from Rutgers. He traveled to campus in early February, and the team now leads in his 247Sports' Crystal Ball projections.
A commitment from Guarantano could create a domino effect in Rutgers' favor, as several fellow in-state standouts remain undecided. Top-rated defensive tackle Rashan Gary, athlete Jordan Fuller and wide receiver Ahmir Mitchell are among those who've maintained interest in the program.
Clemson Will Secure a Top-Five Class
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Dabo Swinney continues to amaze on the recruiting trail, collecting top-15 recruiting classes in four of the past five years. Look for the Tigers to make another leap en route to signing day 2016.
Clemson has already collected seven offers in this class, including serious offensive firepower.
Zerrick Cooper, a 4-star quarterback from Georgia committed last fall. He's since been joined by a pair of 4-star receivers (Cornell Powell and Tavares Chase) and 5-star running back Tavien Feaster.
Powell and Feaster each pledged this past signing day, providing additional reason to celebrate on an afternoon when the Tigers signed college football's eighth-best class. Given the early momentum and on-field expectations in 2015, Clemson fans should feel comfortable near the top of recruiting rankings because the team is there to stay.
The marquee recruitments of Florida cornerback Saivion Smith, Georgia offensive tackle E.J. Price and in-state defensive lineman Nyles Pinckney are particularly worth monitoring moving forward.
At Least One Blue-Chip Recruit Will Follow in Roquan Smith's Footsteps
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Will Roquan Smith's recruiting approach eventually become the "new normal" for top-tier prospects?
The coveted linebacker committed to UCLA over Michigan, Georgia and Texas A&M on signing day in front of a national television audience. However, he had no intentions of signing a letter of intent that bound him to a college program.
Later that day, news broke that Bruins linebacker coach Jeff Ulbrich accepted a job with the Atlanta Falcons. Smith opted to delay his decision beyond signing day before eventually announcing his intentions to play at Georgia nine days later.
He still won't sign an L.O.I until the day he enrolls in Athens.
“He’s not going to sign a letter of intent,” Macon County High School coach Larry Harold told Michael Carvell of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “The reason why is because what he went through last week. This just gives us flexibility in case something else unexpectedly happens again.”
It's a development that could drastically alter the perceived "finality" of decisions announced on signing day. Now that the precedent is set, it would almost be a surprise if at least one top 2016 prospect doesn't use his leverage to extend the decision-making process.
Alabama's Recruiting Dynasty Will Come to an End
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If I asked you to place a $1,000 bet right now regarding which team finishes atop 2016 recruiting rankings and offered choices of "Alabama" or "all the rest," the decision should make you sweat a little bit.
As insane as it sounds, the Crimson Tide haven't failed to secure the nation's No. 1 recruiting class since prospects in this recruiting cycle were in sixth grade. Head coach Nick Saban has assembled five consecutive top-ranked recruiting hauls, routinely reloading a ridiculously deep roster.
So why doubt he'll make it a half-dozen years of duplicated success?
Well, for one, the luster of Alabama's last national title is beginning to slightly fade. High school juniors are more familiar with the team's dramatic 2013 Iron Bowl defeat and disheartening playoff debut, though you'll be hard-pressed to find a more respected coach than Saban among recruits.
The Tide are off to a modest start in this cycle, holding three commitments in a class that ranks 18th overall in national rankings. Unless Saban bolts on Alabama for an unforeseen opportunity, the program will finish somewhere far closer to the top of that list.
However, impressive early 2016 recruiting efforts from programs with more recent championship success—Florida State and Ohio State—lead us to believe this is the year Tuscaloosa is forced to settle for something less than No. 1 on national signing day.
Still, betting against Saban never seems like the safe choice.
Recruit ratings and class rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
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