Predicting the Top 20 Offenses of the 2015 College Football Season
If there's one thing we can predict about the upcoming college football season, it's that points will be aplenty. Twenty-eight FBS schools averaged at least 35 points per game in 2014, and 33 churned out at least 450 yards per contest.
There's no reason to expect anything less this fall, but which teams will be sitting atop the offensive charts might surprise you. Only seven schools that finished last season among the top 20 teams in total offense were also ranked that high in 2013, and just five of those teams have finished as a top-20 offense for three straight years.
While big numbers are as much a part of the college game as cheerleaders and fight songs, who puts up those eye-popping stats isn't as easy to predict. But we're going to try anyway.
Check out our projections for the top 20 offensive teams for the 2015 season, listed alphabetically.
Arizona
1 of 20
2014 record: 10-4
Total offense rank: 26th
Offensive starters returning: 6
Arizona's skill-position players were almost entirely freshmen and sophomores in 2014, yet that didn't keep it from being one of the fastest-moving units in the country. Youthful mistakes—such as quarterback Anu Solomon taking a sack instead of throwing it away or going out of bounds at the end of the Fiesta Bowl—were the only thing holding it back.
The Wildcats' receiving corps returns almost entirely intact, and combined with Solomon and 1,000-yard rusher Nick Wilson it stands to reason they can challenge for the top offense in the Pac-12 this season.
Solomon threw for 3,793 yards and 28 touchdowns, tossing only nine interceptions in 540 attempts. Six receivers with at least 20 catches are back, led by big target Cayleb Jones. And Wilson, despite missing all or parts of several games, ran for 1,375 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Coach Rich Rodriguez has quickly turned Arizona's offense into a carbon copy of what he had at West Virginia, which means the productivity should continue to improve as the players become more experienced.
Arizona State
2 of 20
2014 record: 10-3
Total offense rank: 36th
Offensive starters returning: 7
A midseason injury to quarterback Taylor Kelly could have derailed Arizona State's season in 2014, but instead it reinvigorated its offense with eventual successor Mike Bercovici getting his chance to shine. All the backup did was throw for 998 yards and eight touchdowns in his first two starts, setting the stage for what he can do with a full offseason as the No. 1 passer.
Bercovici will be a senior this year, and though he won't have top-tier receiver Jaelen Strong to work with, he does still have some talented weapons to throw to. That includes senior D.J. Foster, who after rushing for more than 1,000 yards in 2014 has been moved to slot receiver to capitalize on his open-field skills. Foster was second on the Sun Devils in receptions (62) and yards (688) last season.
Foster was able to slide to receiver because of the late-season emergence of Demario Richard, a freshman who also has great pass-catching skills. ASU's running backs had 32 percent of the completions last season, an element of offensive coordinator Mike Norvell's scheme that makes the Devils difficult to contain.
Auburn
3 of 20
2014 record: 8-5
Total offense rank: 17th
Offensive starters returning: 6
It might have seemed like Auburn wasn't much of an offensive threat last season because of how the year went as a whole. But the Tigers only gained 16 fewer yards per game than during their national title-game season in 2013.
This bodes well for the expectations of the coming season, as we'll see just how much is scheme and how much is personnel with the loss of quarterback Nick Marshall, leading rusher Cameron Artis-Payne and top receivers Quan Bray and Sammie Coates.
But the personnel, though vastly different, could be even better in 2015 if things go according to plan. That starts with Jeremy Johnson, who saw limited action at quarterback last season but shined in his most notable appearance starting ahead of Marshall in the season opener and throwing for 243 yards and three touchdowns in one half.
"The staff made a concerted effort to treat Johnson like the starter heading into the game and called the first half as if Johnson were a seasoned veteran," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote. "He responded with flying colors, and that experience will be invaluable as he enters the 2015 campaign as the unquestioned starter."
The running game will be made up of untested players, but that was the case in coach Gus Malzahn's first season in 2013, and we saw how that turned out.
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Baylor
4 of 20
2014 record: 11-2
Total offense rank: 1st
Offensive starters returning: 9
Baylor was the top-gaining offense in the country the past two years after being second overall in 2011 and 2012. The players have changed. But the production hasn't, so there's no reason to expect anything less in 2015 despite two-year starting quarterback Bryce Petty having graduated.
How efficient is this attack? When Petty missed the Bears' second game last year with a back injury, backup Seth Russell stepped in and threw for 438 yards and five touchdowns.
It will either be Russell or 4-star early enrollee Jarrett Stidham running the offense, while the backfield and receiving corps will be stocked with returners. Shock Linwood ran for 1,252 yards and 16 touchdowns while freshman Johnny Jefferson chipped in 524 yards and six TDs. And two 1,000-yard receivers (KD Cannon and Corey Coleman) are coming back.
Even with offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery having left to take over the Tulsa program, don't expect a drop-off. Coach Art Briles tabbed his son, Kendal, as the new play-caller after several years of coordinating Baylor's prolific passing game.
Clemson
5 of 20
2014 record: 10-3
Total offense rank: 61st
Offensive starters returning: 6
Clemson's offense in 2014 had two different faces, the one with and without Deshaun Watson at quarterback. When the electric true freshman was under center, the Tigers were unstoppable, but injuries to him and others led to many sluggish performances in other games.
Watson suffered a broken hand and two knee injuries, eventually needing surgery after tearing his ACL (despite playing a game with the tear). The surgery made it seem unlikely that Watson would be available for spring practice, but according to coach Dabo Swinney his star's rehabilitation has gone much better than expected.
"He'll be ready to roll when we get going," Swinney told Brandon Rink of the Anderson Independent Mail.
If Watson is at full strength this fall, it will make the departure of offensive coordinator Chad Morris (now SMU's head coach) a lot easier to overcome. Watson threw for 1,466 yards and 14 touchdowns while rushing for five TDs in his limited action last year, and he'll have some great young players to work with.
Also returning is running back Wayne Gallman, who emerged from an injury-plagued backfield to rush for nearly 800 yards, while receivers Artavis Scott and Mike Williams combined for 1,995 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2014.
Florida State
6 of 20
2014 record: 13-1
Total offense rank: 38th
Offensive starters returning: 4
The post-Jameis Winston era at Florida State might lack in terms of off-the-field intrigue, but that doesn't mean it will be any less explosive on the field. In fact, it could be even better without having one single focal point as had been the case the past two seasons.
In fact, who is quarterback in 2015 won't be as important as how the Seminoles' young skill players continue to develop. What they did last year was just the start.
Once Dalvin Cook became FSU's No. 1 rusher last season, the offense took off. The true freshman finished with 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns, numbers that he should surpass before November.
At receiver, Travis Rudolph began to emerge late in his freshman year into the kind of target who could easily slide into the No. 1 spot that Rashad Greene vacated because of graduation. Add in Bobo Wilson and Ermon Lane, both of whom have just scratched the surface of their capabilities, as well as four receiving prospects rated by 247Sports as 4- or 5-star talent, and there's no shortage of weapons.
It will, though, come down to who replaces Winston at quarterback. Sean Maguire filled in admirably when Winston was suspended, but there is also a number of unproven challengers who could get the job.
Georgia
7 of 20
2014 record: 10-3
Total offense rank: 30th
Offensive starters returning: 6
Any offense that has Nick Chubb at its disposal is capable of being one of the tops in FBS. We saw that last year when the true freshman got a shot to be the go-to running back and became a stellar workhorse. And Chubb figures to be one of the most prolific rushers in the country in 2015.
But for the Bulldogs to be a top-20 offense, they'll need a quarterback who does more than just managed the game.
Hutson Mason performed well as a senior last year, completing 67.9 percent of his passes and throwing only four interceptions in 277 attempts. But Mason averaged fewer than 167 yards per game, and that won't fly this season.
New offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, fresh from several NFL assistant jobs, must figure out a capable passer between junior Faton Bauta, sophomore Brice Ramsey and redshirt freshman Jacob Park. Whoever wins the job will have a very young receiving unit to work with, but it's full of promise including 5-star prospect Terry Godwin.
Georgia Southern
8 of 20
2014 record: 9-3
Total offense rank: 16th
Offensive starters returning: 5
Georgia Southern wasn't allowed to play in a bowl game in its first season of FBS play, despite winning the Sun Belt Conference and nearly edging ACC teams Georgia Tech and North Carolina State on the road. The Eagles are eligible for postseason play in 2015, though, and with their unstoppable run game they'll likely be making a bowl appearance.
Last year they averaged 379.9 rushing yards per game, far and away the best in the country, while averaging 7.11 yards per carry and scoring 55 times on the ground. Their "worst" rushing effort was for 227 yards, a tally that would have ranked 24th in FBS if spread over the year.
The three-headed rushing monster of quarterback Kevin Ellison and backs Matt Breida and Alfred Ramsby combined for 3,258 yards with 41 touchdowns, and all will be back in 2015. Georgia Southern does have to replace four of its five starting offensive linemen, but coach Willie Fritz built up depth during the past season and has a plan in place to make the transition for his new starters a smooth one.
Georgia Southern will get another pair of high-profile nonconference games to show off its run game against, opening at West Virginia and visiting Georgia in November.
Houston
9 of 20
2014 record: 8-5
Total offense rank: 58th
Offensive starters returning: 7
Fresh off juggling quarterbacks on the way to a national championship with Ohio State, Tom Herman gets his first head coaching gig with Houston. He inherits an underachieving team that struggled on offense, at least until converted wide receiver Greg Ward became the Cougars' quarterback midway through the season.
Houston averaged 482 yards per game over its last five contests, and with running back Kenneth Farrow and a solid group of receivers coming back, the Cougars figure to make a big leap forward offensively under Herman's guidance.
"We will be exciting to watch," Herman said at his introductory press conference (h/t Yahoo Sports).
He could have benefited from having top wideout Deontay Greenberry not turn pro after his junior year, but Herman does have Demarcus Ayers and Steven Dunbar, and both could have breakout seasons in 2015.
Louisiana Tech
10 of 20
2014 record: 9-5
Total offense rank: 65th
Offensive starters returning: 6
Louisiana Tech had the No. 1 offense in the country in 2012 when Sonny Dykes was coaching the Bulldogs, but after Skip Holtz took over that unit saw a major drop-off before rebounding last season behind senior transfer quarterback Cody Sokol.
Tech has another transfer passer to work with for 2015, as Florida graduate Jeff Driskel chose Ruston for his final season of eligibility as the place where he could try to redeem his underachieving career. Driskel was benched midway through last year during Florida's tumultuous campaign, but now with an opportunity to be a veteran leader he should thrive.
It helps that he'll have a running back, Kenneth Dixon, who enters his senior year with 53 career rushing touchdowns.
Beyond that, Tech's receiving corps brings back four of its top five receivers, all of whom should thrive with Driskel throwing their way.
Louisville
11 of 20
2014 record: 9-4
Total offense rank: 72nd
Offensive starters returning: 6
Bobby Petrino has a reputation for being an offensive mastermind, which made his Louisville team's production this past season very strange to see. The absence of big-play receiver DeVante Parker for more than half the season and an injury-plagued group of quarterbacks contributed to the struggles, as well as Petrino's lack of familiarity with the personnel in his first season back in charge of the Cardinals.
Expect a huge boost in Louisville's offensive numbers in 2015, though, assuming a quarterback emerges from the trio of Reggie Bonnafon, Kyle Bolin and Will Gardner to become the true No. 1 passer.
Assuming that happens, that will pair well with a solid running back in Brandon Radcliff (737 yards, 12 TDs) and a potential No. 1 receiver in James Quick (566 yards, three TDs), both of whom will be sophomores. Beyond that, it will be up to players Petrino has recruited the past two offseasons to step up and produce.
Notre Dame
12 of 20
2014 record: 8-5
Total offense rank: 34th
Offensive starters returning: 5
If not for turnover problems focused heavily on quarterback Everett Golson, Notre Dame's offense might have been even more impressive last season than its final ranking would indicate. Golson looks to have been overtaken by Malik Zaire for the starting job in 2015, which should ensure improved offensive numbers.
The play of Zaire late last season gives great hope that he's going to be able to step in on a full-time basis this season and be not just a solid passer, but also an elusive runner who will make Notre Dame's offense so hard to plan against.
Pair that with rising junior Tarean Folston, who ran for 889 yards and six touchdowns last year, and the Irish could be a top-10 rushing team, assuming they can block on the offensive line like they did in the Music City Bowl against LSU.
"With sky-high expectations and more skill talent than we've seen in South Bend in decades, it'll be on the guys up front to deliver," Bleacher Report's Keith Arnold wrote.
Notre Dame also brings back its top four receivers, led by William Fuller (76 receptions, 1,094 yards, 15 TDs) and Corey Robinson (40 catches, 539 yards, five TDs). Both will be juniors in 2015.
Ohio State
13 of 20
2014 record: 14-1
Total offense rank: 9th
Offensive starters returning: 8
Ohio State's revolving door at quarterback could have been a disaster last season, but instead it turned into a source of motivation for what ultimately became a national title. Now the Buckeyes have the problem of having to figure out whether senior Braxton Miller, junior Cardale Jones or sophomore J.T. Barrett is the best fit to run the offense during their title defense.
Whoever it is, expect OSU to again be one of the most explosive offenses in the country.
Each passer brings something different to the attack, something that former offensive coordinator Tom Herman was able to work with. New coordinator Tim Beck as well as head coach Urban Meyer figure to build the offense around this passer, though in all versions there will still be a heavy dose of running back Ezekiel Elliott.
It was Elliott's play during the postseason—he had 696 of his 1,878 yards and eight of his 18 touchdowns in the final three games—that put the Buckeyes over the top last year, and he'll be a key element again.
So too will OSU's deep receiving corps, which did lose deep threat Devin Smith but brings back almost everyone else.
Oklahoma
14 of 20
2014 record: 8-5
Total offense rank: 24th
Offensive starters returning: 6
Oklahoma was a massive disappointment in 2014, despite having some of the best offensive numbers in the country. Coach Bob Stoops responded by overhauling his entire coaching staff, including hiring East Carolina's Lincoln Riley as offensive coordinator.
Riley worked wonders with unheralded players like quarterback Shane Carden and running back Breon Allen last season, and now he gets to call plays for far more talented players with the Sooners. That combination should get this offense into the top 20, assuming the quarterback position produces.
Trevor Knight underachieved in his first full year as a starter and then got injured, and Cody Thomas struggled. Expect Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield, who sat out in 2014, to get a shot to win the job and potentially thrive under Riley's guidance.
Passing game aside, expect Samaje Perine to be the workhorse of the offense. He burst onto the scene as a freshman last year with 1,713 yards and 21 touchdowns, topping 200 yards three times and setting the single-game rushing record with 427 yards against Kansas.
Oregon
15 of 20
2014 record: 13-2
Total offense rank: 3rd
Offensive starters returning: 6
Oregon has finished the past five seasons among the top six teams in total offense in FBS, and Marcus Mariota was only involved in the last three of those. Losing a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback is never an easy thing to overcome, but don't expect the Ducks to suddenly become lethargic with the ball just because Mariota has gone.
Whether it's backup Jeff Lockie, Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams or incoming freshman Travis Waller, expect Oregon's quarterback play to again be among the best in the nation. It doesn't have to be No. 1, though, not with the running back depth the Ducks bring back.
Royce Freeman ran for 1,365 yards and 18 touchdowns as a true freshman, while Thomas Tyner added 573 yards and five scores. Byron Marshall, who was a 1,000-yard rusher as a sophomore in 2014, moved to receiver last year and became the top target because of injuries.
The return of Bralon Addison (who missed all of 2014 with a knee injury) will further bolster a receiving corps that also features NCAA hurdle champion Devon Allen and late-bloomer Dwayne Stanford, giving whoever replaces Mariota plenty of options.
"Reinserting Addison into a group with so much young talent should make for one of the more entertaining years by this position the program has ever seen," wrote Aaron Fentress of CSNNW.com.
TCU
16 of 20
2014 record: 12-1
Total offense rank: 5th (tie)
Offensive starters returning: 9
TCU was one of the biggest surprises in college football last season, and most of that had to do with how the Horned Frogs offense exploded after being ineffective the year before.
Now come the far-increased expectations, both from outside and internally.
"We're going to have to be a better football team next year to be able to replace what we did this year, and they're going to have to decide if they want to do that,” TCU coach Gary Patterson told Jake Trotter of ESPN.com. "There's a lot of good leaders on this football team, and I think there's an opportunity for them to get that done."
The key to everything will again be Trevone Boykin, whose emergence as one of the most deadly offensive weapons in the country last year paced TCU's push for the playoffs. Boykin threw for 3,901 yards and 33 touchdowns and ran for 707 yards and eight touchdowns, and he'll be asked to do more of the same in 2015.
Boykin will have plenty around him to make sure that happens, including running back Aaron Green (922 yards, nine TDs) and three receivers (Josh Doctson, Deante' Gray and Kolby Listenbee) who caught 23 touchdowns last year who will all be seniors this fall.
Texas A&M
17 of 20
2014 record: 8-5
Total offense rank: 32nd
Offensive starters returning: 8
The offense we saw from Texas A&M during the first half of the season occurred despite the Aggies going with a whole slew of untested skill-position players. That inexperience led to struggles in the latter half of the regular season, but then they all came together for a masterful performance in the Liberty Bowl win over West Virginia.
Expect that final effort to be the standard from A&M in 2015, especially if quarterback Kyle Allen continues to develop during the offseason.
"Allen's accuracy should improve as he gets more repetitions with the receivers during spring practice and offseason workouts," wrote Bleacher Report's Michael Taglienti, noting that Allen often overthrew open receivers. "His completion percentage will approach 70 percent as he and the receivers get on the same page."
Allen took over for Kenny Hill midway through last year, and after some initial ineffectiveness, the true freshman finished strong and ended up with 1,322 passing yards and 16 touchdowns. He figures to keep on improving, and with five receivers who had at least 29 receptions coming back (as well as a recruiting class featuring 5-star prospect Christian Kirk) to throw to it will be fun to watch.
USC
18 of 20
2014 record: 9-4
Total offense rank: 31st
Offensive starters returning: 10
USC saw its top receiver and leading rusher both move on to the NFL after their junior years, yet the Trojans offense could be even better in 2015. Having a quarterback who has started for two seasons and quietly put up one of the best seasons in program history last year helps with that cause.
Cody Kessler threw for 3,826 yards and 39 touchdowns with just five interceptions last year, completing a school-record 69.7 percent of his passes and recording seven 300-yard games. And while Nelson Agholor (10 receptions) had nearly one-third of his completions, there's no shortage of young talent for Kessler to work with this fall.
Juju Smith got off to a great start to his career with 54 receptions and five touchdowns, while two-way star Adoree' Jackson figures to become even more involved in the offense.
The loss of Javorius Allen (1,489 rushing yards, 11 TDs) is significant. But Justin Davis was a solid No. 2 who can move into the featured role, or 4-star recruit Ronald Jones II could jump right in and become a go-to rusher.
Washington State
19 of 20
2014 record: 3-9
Total offense rank: 7th
Offensive starters returning: 8
Despite having the most lopsided offense in the country last year and seeing a record-holding passer graduate, Washington State figures to still put up huge numbers when it has the ball. The reason? Mike Leach is calling the plays.
It might have been a miserable season from a record standpoint, but the Cougars never struggled to generate offense because they never stopped throwing it. Even after Connor Halliday broke his leg in early November, redshirt freshman Luke Falk came in and threw for more yards (1,859) in only five games of action than nine FBS teams had all season.
Falk now has the keys to this offense, and while his top two receivers have graduated, there are still five players coming back who had at least 25 receptions. That includes talented junior River Cracraft and running back Jamal Morrow, who as a freshman had almost as many catches (61) and carries (87) despite being WSU's leading rusher.
Western Kentucky
20 of 20
2014 record: 8-5
Total offense rank: 4th
Offensive starters returning: 9
As a fifth-year senior, Western Kentucky quarterback Brandon Doughty led FBS in passing yards (4,830) and touchdowns (49), obliterating school records he had set the season before. He capped what should have been the final game of his career by throwing for 486 yards and five touchdowns in a wild Bahamas Bowl win over Central Michigan.
Yet, here's the thing. About three weeks before that, the NCAA had granted Doughty a sixth year of eligibility because two knee surgeries forced him to miss most of the 2011 and all of the 2012 season. So now he's got another year to tear through opposing defenses, and that includes facing Indiana, LSU and Vanderbilt as well as the Conference USA slate.
Doughty will have three of his top four receivers back to work with, but it won't be all about passing. Leon Allen ran for 1,542 yards and 13 touchdowns as a junior in 2014, and he'll likely be called on just as often to run it this season.
All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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