Prospect vs. Player: Would You Rather Have Jahlil Okafor or Joel Embiid?
By the start of the 2015-16 season, the NBA should be welcoming two of its next-generation star big men.
Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid arrived last summer, only to be forced into spending his first year on the shelf after breaking his foot before the 2014 draft.
Meanwhile, Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor has jumped out as arguably the top center in college hoops, and one of the best bets in the projected 2015 draft field.
Both will be expected to make their NBA debuts next fall. And they each have centerpiece-type expectations with regard to their future outlooks.
So, who would you rather have to build your franchise around?
Physical Tools
| Size | Weight | Wingspan | |
| Okafor | 6'11" | 270 pounds | 7'5" |
| Embiid | 7'0" | 240 pounds | 7'5" |
While they measure out similarly in terms of height and length, Okafor has a good 30 pounds extra to bang with down low. And that should come in handy early on during the physical transition. While there isn't too much of a difference in size for guards making the jump, NBA power forwards and centers can be a whole lot more powerful than college big men.
Okafor is ultimately a lot tougher to move on the block, while Embiid's lack of strength was evident at different times in 2013-14.
However, where Embiid lacks in strength, he makes up for with bounce and athleticism. Embiid can get up high above the rim, which translates to easy buckets on offense, as well as defensive plays around the cylinder.
Okafor isn't a stiff—he moves well from baseline to baseline, especially for a guy carrying as much weight as he does. And he has a good first step out of triple-threat position. But he isn't particularly quick laterally, which shows up in pick-and-roll coverage and defensive close-out situations. And he doesn't get too high off the ground.
Offense
With a 27.5 percent usage rate in 30.5 minutes per game, Okafor's role at Duke is a lot more involved than what Embiid's was at Kansas (23.1 minutes, 23.4 percent usage rate). So when comparing their numbers, we've adjusted them to reflect per-40-minute averages:
| Points | FG Pct. | Rebounds | Assists | FT Pct. | |
| Okafor | 23.8 | .665 | 12.2 | 1.7 | .571 |
| Embiid | 19.4 | .626 | 14.0 | 2.3 | .685 |
Back-to-the-Basket Post Game
Okafor's polished post game is essentially what drives his NBA appeal. He immediately established himself as an option for Duke to feature or run its offense through.
He's shooting a dominant 58.5 percent on his post-up opportunities this season, according to DraftExpress. And that's on 14.3 post touches per game, which accounts for 52 percent of his entire touches in general.
Okafor has been a force getting back to the rim, where he uses his body to shield his man and footwork to separate and score. His go-to move has been pretty unstoppable—a back-down with one shoulder that leads to a spin over the other.
While Okafor's post game revolves mostly around power and agility, Embiid's has a little more shake-and-bake.
But he isn't quite as decisive or strong with the ball. Embiid registered a 21.6 percent turnover rate (compared to Okafor's 16 percent), which highlights his still-raw offensive game. No matter, Embiid managed to shoot 54 percent on back-to-the-basket opportunities, per DraftExpress' Matt Kamalsky, and showcased footwork and touch that resulted in buckets off Dream Shakes, up-and-unders, hops steps, drop steps and slippery baseline spins.
Embiid went to the line more frequently of the two, having drawn a foul on 27 percent of his possessions, which ranked No. 1 among centers in last year's field, according to DraftExpress. He finished the year with 143 free-throw attempts in 647 minutes—Okafor has taken 140 through 762 minutes to date.
Okafor is currently further ahead in terms of one-on-one offense, but both have the feet, hands and tools to one day pose as two of league's toughest post covers.
As the double-teams started coming more frequently, they each also progressed into excellent passers. Okafor and Embiid have showcased the ball-handling skills to dribble away from trouble, as well as the awareness and vision to survey the floor and find the open man.
It also helps that they each have giant hands that allow them to palm the ball and fire one-handed crosscourt darts.
Embiid picked up more assists (2.3 per 40, Okafor dished out 1.7), but he also likely threw a lot more away.
Shooting Potential
Though neither Embiid nor Okafor have much credibility when it comes to shooting, each player's ceiling would rise if he were to add a jumper to his arsenal. And Embiid looks a little closer.
He knocked down 68.5 percent of his free throws, while Okafor is shooting just 57.1 percent from the line. Embiid also hit 7 of 11 jumpers last season, including a three-pointer. And while the sample size is tiny, we really haven't seen Okafor attempt many shots with two hands on the ball.
Occasionally in the post, you'll see Okafor quickly rise and toss in a push shot off the glass when his defender least expects it. However, he doesn't get much elevation, and it makes you wonder if he'll be able to get it off against bigger, longer defenders.
Rarely have we seen Okafor catch and release outside the paint. Embiid is still in the early stages, but if either of the two is going to evolve into a pick-and-pop or elbow catch-and-shooter, odds are it's him.
Rebounding
Embiid really controlled the boards during his 28 games at Kansas, particularly on the defensive glass. Okafor's rebounding presence has also been felt, though more so at the offensive end.
Take a look at their numbers by percentage, as well as Okafor's knack for generating second-chance points:
| Off. Rebounding Pct. | Def. Rebounding Pct. | Total Rebounding Pct | Putbacks | |
| Okafor | 16.2 percent | 19.0 percent | 17.7 percent | 44 |
| Embiid | 12.7 percent | 27.3 percent | 20.5 percent | 14 |
Okafor's 44 putbacks to Embiid's 14 are a likely result of terrific hands and the strength to overwhelm.
Still, between the space he takes up and the spring in his legs, there's no reason why an active Embiid can't average a double-double during his prime years in the league.
Defense
While defense doesn't hold as much weight for guards or forwards during the evaluation process, protecting the rim is a major factor when assessing a center's value and impact. And one of these big men has looked a lot more promising than the other.
Rim Protection
If there's a knock on Okafor, it's at the defensive end, where he isn't as light on his feet or as aggressive off the ball. Though he's been effective in stretches, Okafor doesn't provide the rim protection you'd expect from a big man with his measurements and basketball IQ.
Of all the NBA big men I categorized as centers, only Mason Plumlee and Nikola Vucevic left college with lower block percentages than Okafor's 4.7 percent. Sometimes it's a lack of effort; others it's just not anticipating. But for the most part, Okafor's questionable interior defensive outlook stems from his struggles getting off the floor.
On the other hand, Embiid emerged last year as an absolute natural in the middle. Of current NBA players, only Hassan Whiteside and Nerlens Noel left college with greater block percentages than Embiid's 11.7 percent.
In 115 fewer minutes, Embiid blocked nearly twice as many shots (72) as Okafor has (37) this season.
Embiid displayed some pretty spectacular instincts when it came to making plays at the rim. He even got out to challenge shots around or outside the key.
However, he still has a ways to go when it comes to one-on-one defense. Embiid averaged a whopping 5.8 personal fouls per 40 minutes at Kansas. In comparison, Okafor averages just three per 40.
Embiid doesn't quite fully have the tightest defensive grasp fundamentally, which is one of the reasons he didn't play as many minutes his freshman year. But that's fairly normal for a first-year college player—especially one who's only played three to four years of organized hoops.
Embiid's Red Flags
Concerns were raised after it was announced Embiid would miss the college postseason with back trouble. Red flags were thrown when he broke his foot during a workout, an injury expected to cost him his entire first NBA year.
The only question mark tied to Embiid is the one that asks about durability. Was he built to last 82 games year after year?
It's a likely question that the Cleveland Cavaliers and Milwaukee Bucks chose not to gamble on when they passed in last year's draft.
"If he can remain healthy, he can have a fantastic, fantastic NBA career," Sixers general manager Sam Hinkie told the Associated Press, via ESPN.com, after drafting him last June.
Otherwise, outside of needing to add bulk, Embiid checks out from every other angle regarding skill and talent.
Okafor's Red Flags
There isn't as much value in centers who have trouble protecting the rim—regardless of how good they are offensively. Guys like Al Jefferson, Vucevic, Greg Monroe and Enes Kanter have become skilled scoring big men, but their lack of defensive presence weighs on their overall impact.
Okafor's minimal versatility raises another concern or question. Whoever takes him will be banking heavily on that post game. What if—as a good athlete, not a great one—Okafor's post game at the next level isn't as consistently dominant as it has been in college?
All of Okafor's strengths are ultimately packed into the same basket. He could be in trouble if that basket of post moves doesn't play as tough in the pros, considering he's not a difference-maker defensively and can't stretch the floor on offense.
Okafor vs. Embiid
Having just turned 19 years old, Okafor is nearly two years younger than Embiid, who'll be turning 21 in March.
But that doesn't change the height of Embiid's towering ceiling, which stands a good two stories higher than Okafor's. "He can do things that only a few people in the world can do," one NBA scout told Bleacher Report's Jason King.
Okafor might be the better offensive player right now, but in doses, Embiid flashed a skill set in the post that could eventually work equally as well once tightened up. Throw in some shooting touch that may expand his versatility, along with the ability to anchor the paint defensively, and there isn't much ground left for Embiid to cover in reference to mapping out his potential.
As good as Okafor's low-post game has been, and as good as it could be at the NBA level, his defensive limitations and fairly one-dimensional scoring attack may keep his upside in check.
Chances are Okafor will start in the NBA from day one to year 10. But I'd take my chances on the fragile yet ultra-talented Embiid, who'll have the opportunity to develop into one of the game's premier two-way centers.
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