What If Peyton Manning Becomes a Free Agent?

Peyton Manning and Jim Harbaugh were on a football field sometime during early March 2012, or so the legend says. A ball was sailing between the San Francisco 49ers head coach at the time and a future Hall of Famer who found himself in a strange position: He was looking for work.

Manning was still recovering from four neck surgeries, procedures once thought to be career threatening. He was playing what should have been a leisurely game of catch during a recruiting trip, and a 48-year-old coach long removed from his quarterbacking days commented on the lack of, ahem, mustard behind Manning’s throws.

That tale comes from a Harbaugh profile by ESPN’s Seth Wickersham. It was surely one of many long-lasting anecdotes during a two-week stretch that seemed unthinkable. One of the best quarterbacks in league history was completely unshackled and free to play for the team of his choosing.

Now the Denver Broncos could be preparing to start the Manning free-agency tour all over again.

Bleacher Report’s NFL Insider Jason Cole reminded us Tuesday that if the Broncos want to move on from Manning, there’s an easy exit available. They could give him a failing grade on his annual physical that, if passed, would lock in his mammoth 2015 salary. Manning is scheduled to be paid a base salary of $19 million, which accounts for a cap hit of $21.5 million (all per Spotrac).

Manning is required to pass a physical before the end of the league year, which is fast approaching (free agency begins March 10). That gives the Broncos ultimate control over his future, and as Cole reports, uncertainty lingers.

“In talking to sources close to and around the team, there’s a big question here about whether the Broncos want to bring him back for one more year,” Cole said.

There are plenty of dominoes yet to tumble. Manning still hasn’t formally announced he intends to return in 2015, though his actions are speaking louder than any words.

He’s working out with fitness trainer Mackie Shilstone to prepare for an 18th season, according to a report from Jeff Duncan of the New Orleans Times-Picayune. Manning also wants to meet with the Broncos' top executives about the upcoming season and the direction under a new coaching staff led by Gary Kubiak.

Mike Klis of the Denver Post expects that meeting to happen…soon.

It’s not difficult to see the Broncos' motivation for wanting to relieve themselves of a heavy financial burden, making the post-Manning era come one year early.

They have plenty of cap space right now at $26.7 million, per Spotrac, but much of that will be gobbled up by wide receiver Demaryius Thomas and likely also tight end Julius Thomas, both impending free agents. Run-clogging defensive tackle Terrance Knighton is a key contributor too and is also set to hit the open market.

So with that in mind, let’s entertain an NFL landscape with Manning allowed to roam free once again. Don’t fool yourself: A fading Manning would still be a coveted Manning and a widely chased Manning.

Manning still has some zip left

Recency bias is one hell of a drug.

The last memory we have of Manning comes from the AFC Divisional Round, when he barely resembled an NFL quarterback. He averaged only 4.6 yards per pass attempt in that loss to the Indianapolis Colts and finished with a rating of 75.5.

The Manning we saw on that day and every day recently is an older model and far past peak form. Let’s not lose sight of that inescapable fact: Manning is old, and his arm strength has been draining for some time.

But this particular Manning who bowed out in a one-and-done playoff heap—the eighth time he’s done that—had detoured away from his gradual decline path, descending to even lower, scarier depths due to circumstances beyond his control.

Manning played with a right quad strain for the final four games of the season, including that playoff loss. The injury was first reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter, who noted the bruising was so severe it spread to the back of his leg.

Included in the same report was this jarring statement on the lack of downfield power Manning could generate with the strain: He completed only two of his 12 attempts that traveled at least 15 yards through the air against the Colts, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

All of that leads to an inevitable question. Assuming he returns, which Manning will we see in 2015? Surely the much healthier version after eight months to recover.

Games	Yds/game	Yds/attempt	Comp %	TDs	INTs
Last four games (including playoffs)	257	7.0	60.5	4	4
Rest of season (13 games)	300.8	7.9	66.9	36	11

That’s a spiral of nearly a full yard per attempt and 43.8 passing yards per game.

Manning’s inability to create downfield torch from his lower half often resulted in openings wildly missed, or worse, inaccurate throws that fell into enemy hands. Over the first half of the season he threw only five interceptions, a number he nearly matched with four picks in one game during a Week 16 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Mistakes by Manning during the playoff loss to Indianapolis can’t be pinned solely on his quad injury. He uncharacteristically made plenty of poor decisions, too, as Bleacher Report’s Chris Hansen observed while breaking down game film.

But a healthy and mended Manning can still be effective in the right offense and with the right approach.

And Manning at even, say, 75 percent health will still generate free-agent interest due to a fundamental truth about football on our planet.

Only a handful of people on Earth can play quarterback at an NFL level

As I explore a possible yet still hypothetical (for now) scenario here with Manning, another quarterback is already drawing eyebrow raises on the open market. This quarterback completed only 56.3 percent of his passes in 2014, with more interceptions (14) than touchdowns (11).

Yes, Josh McCown has a unique odor. Yet after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers released him Thursday morning his phone already started buzzing, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport:

The quarterback free-agency pool is annually filled with toxic waste, and this year it’s especially dreadful. Before McCown’s release, it was led by Mark Sanchez, followed by Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett in whatever order suits your personal preference (it doesn’t really matter).

Manning looks like a god among mere men compared to the 2015 quarterback free-agent class, even after an injury-riddled season.

Quarterback	Games	Yds/game	Comp %	Yds/attempt
Peyton Manning	16	295.1	66.2	7.9
Josh McCown	11	200.5	56.3	6.7
Mark Sanchez	9	268.7	64.1	7.8
Brian Hoyer	13	237.6	55.3	7.6

The apparent thirst for McCown shows the level of horrible this quarterback market will reach. But Manning does have something in common with the other three names listed: Like them, he clearly wouldn’t be a long-term solution.

That was also true during the wild spring of 2012 when up to 12 teams lit up Manning’s phone, according to Schefter, pouncing right away after his release from Indianapolis. But at that time there was still the expectation Manning could play for two to three more years.

Now his likely single-year rental status would make Manning a true bridge option. Sure, that could result in a cautious approach from some teams. But again, really consider the sad state of quarterback play. Recall that Zach Mettenberger started six games after being a sixth-round pick in 2014, and EJ Manuel was benched in favor of Kyle Orton during a playoff push.

One year from even an aging Manning sounds a lot better than any year from far too many quarterbacks.

All right, but what would he be worth now?

The free market would not be kind to Manning (see: recency bias, above).

Manning’s current 2015 base salary (again, $19 million) leads all quarterbacks. Three other quarterbacks are set to make at least $17 million, according to Spotrac: Drew Brees, Tony Romo and Eli Manning.

After that we arrive at the likely price point for a soon-to-be 39-year-old Manning.

Quarterback	2015 base salary
Philip Rivers	$15.8 million
Jay Cutler	$15.5 million
Cam Newton	$14.7 million

Listed there are the fifth-, sixth- and seventh-highest quarterback base salaries for 2015. Jay Cutler’s contract is nightmare fuel, but it still exists.

Maybe on the low end Manning would agree to something in the $12 million range, which is Matt Ryan territory. But although injury and performance concerns will remove money from his already ample pockets, it’s difficult to think there’s a universe in which Manning could make less than Cutler.

There would be risk tied to Manning, but reward too

Manning’s arm may be slowly decaying, but perhaps not as quickly as it seems. His 2,821 passing yards through the air led the league in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus.

However, even with that arm still present to some degree, he still needs to be on a team with the personnel and coaching staff required to put an emphasis on quick-strike passing and screens. Manning's success in Denver over the past two seasons has often been rooted in that strategy.

So the checklist for Manning includes plenty of cap room, offensive skill players who excel in space and overall a roster that desperately needs him as the final piece to become a playoff contender (or even better, a championship contender). The Buffalo Bills arguably fit that description, as do the Buccaneers, though they have the first overall pick and will likely use it on Jameis Winston.

For now Denver still holds all the power. A decision made in one front office could have a ripple effect through the league, just as it did three years ago.