Why the Tigers Are in the AL Central Driver's Seat for the Stretch Run

It's no secret. The Detroit Tigers are not exactly blowing the doors off the American League Central Division right now.

And while for some that might be cause for concern that the other shoe is about to drop, a wider angle shows the Tigers might be in a better position today than you think.

At the 114-game mark of the season, they're just six games above .500. This is good for first place, because the White Sox are just barely treading water at one over, while Twins are four games under.

It's not how you draw it up, but fortunately they don't put detailed standings on the back side of the pennants they raise the following spring.

Also fortunately for the Tigers is they're the ones with the lead, so they just have to hold serve, more or less, while the pressure is on the competition to do what they have been unable to do yet this season: play substantially better than .500 baseball.

If Detroit went 24-24 over its final 48 games, it would finish at 84-78 for the season. Not exactly world-beater territory. Yet, it puts pressure that puts on the division opponents.

With five more games on the road than at home, Chicago would have to go 26-21 (.553) to force a tiebreaker, or 27-20 (.574) to win outright on Oct. 4. I'm not saying they can't do it, but I'm just saying they haven't done it yet. Their best month was 15-13 during interleague play.

The schedule the White Sox face for the rest of the season might be described as brutal.

After finishing their three-game set this weekend with a much-improved Oakland team, they have a bit of a lull before reaching what might be the make-it-or-break-it portion of the schedule.

On Aug. 24, they travel to Boston for four games. From there, they head to New York for three. Then they hop on the plane after that and fly to Minneapolis, where the Twins are especially good at home. Finally, they head home to Chicago, but first have to play a makeup game at Wrigley Field.

If they survive that 11-game period, they still have to head out west again in the middle of September and finish the season with six games on the road, including the final three at Detroit.

If they somehow survive that and go on to win the division, more power to them.

The Twins have darn-near mission impossible at this point, but the easiest schedule of the three teams to tackle.

To match Detroit's .500 and force a tiebreaker, Minnesota must go 29-19 (.604) to force a tiebreaker game for the second year in a row, or 30-18 (.625) to win outright. Again, not impossible.

But for a team whose best month is 15-12 and who currently stands at four games under, that's asking a lot, isn't it?

The road they travel is the one you want, however. Outside the Tigers, the toughest team (by record) on their schedule is Texas, where they'll be for four games next week. They host the Rangers for three later in August.

Gone are the worries about East powerhouses New York, Boston, and Tampa, as well as West-leader Anaheim.

What they have going against them is a tough road trip near the end of the season.

From Sept. 21 through Oct. 1, they hit Chicago for three games, Kansas City for three, and then Detroit for four.

Of course, they haven't proven they're able to do a lot of damage against the weaker teams, either. They've split with the Royals (4-4) and are 5-4 vs. the Indians, yet 0-2 vs. the Orioles.

But that's the schedule you want right now.

OK, so how about the Tigers?

I'd say their schedule is somewhat mixed, though still on the difficult side of things. They are yet to face the Rays (61-53), for one. For reference, Chicago went 6-2 against them, and the Twins 3-3. They have four against the Blue Jays at home, too.

But they still face Kansas City nine times, which is nice to see. And they have 27 of the final 48 games at Comerica Park, where they have one of the best advantages in the American League with a 36-18 record this year.

Of course, they need that home advantage because they have been nothing short of awful on the road during the second half of the year.

The main spot to watch, besides a six-game trip to California later this month, falls from the middle of September through the end of the season.

From Sept. 18-27, they'll travel to Minnesota, Cleveland and Chicago for a total of nine games. They'll have to claw through that, but if they survive, home cooking awaits.

Detroit concludes the season with four games against the Twins and three against the White Sox.

If you're in a nip-and-tuck division battle and those are the two teams you have to put away final surges from, that's exactly how you write it up. Detroit controls its own fate, unless it stumbles hard before that point.

But even if the Tigers do stumble, neither team chasing them has shown the ability to take much advantage of it.

During the past 10 games, Detroit's paltry 5-5 record helped it increase distance over Chicago (4-6) and Minnesota (3-7).

That, apparently, is just how this season is going to go.

So, can the Tigers go .500 to keep the pressure on? I don't know.

Do they have to? Probably not.

But what we do know for sure, it's way too early to be claiming the team's demise is just around the next corner.

And if the Tigers do hold on for their first division title since 1987, only the worst of naysayers will care how they got there.

The rest of the Tigers fans will be celebrating.

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Kurt Mensching writes for MackAvenueTigers.com.