Complete Los Angeles Dodgers 2015 Spring Training Preview
It's been quite an offseason for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are set to kick off spring training when pitchers and catchers report to Camelback Ranch on Feb. 19.
Not only was there a change of leadership at the top with a revamped front office, but the team itself will look noticeably different from the one that saw its season end in the first round of last year's playoffs.
New president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi wasted little time configuring the roster to align with their belief in cost-effective, analytics-based baseball.
The duo promptly traded away fan favorites Dee Gordon and Matt Kemp during the winter meetings in December after allowing Hanley Ramirez to walk in free agency. Rather than absorb a sunk cost in reliever Brian Wilson, who exercised his pricey player option for 2015, the Dodgers simply cut him outright.
Half of the infield and about 40 percent of the starting rotation will feature new faces, ones the Dodgers entrusted to carry the team back to the postseason for a third consecutive season.
Los Angeles has essentially made a gamble with its flurry of moves this winter: improved defense and more contact at the plate will make up for the loss of power in the lineup. Questions still remain about the bullpen, however, and it's not a lock that the team can reach the 94-win plateau from last season.
Fans have heard about the metrics all winter. But now it's finally time to take these names off a sheet of paper and instead put them on an actual field. Here's the complete spring training preview for the 2015 Dodgers.
Offseason Recap
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Key Additions
| 138 G, .243/.323/.358, 22 2B, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 78 R, 28 SB | |
2B Howie Kendrick | 157 G, .293/.347/.397, 33 2B, 7 HR, 75 RBI, 85 R, 14 SB |
SP Brandon McCarthy | 32 G, 32 GS, 10-15, 4.05 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 175 K, 200.0 IP |
SP Brett Anderson | 8 G, 8 GS, 1-3, 2.91 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 29 K, 43.1 IP |
C Yasmani Grandal | 128 G, .225/.327/.401, 19 2B, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 47 R |
RP Joel Peralta | 69 G, 18 H, 3-4, 4.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 74 K, 63.1 IP |
RP Juan Nicasio | 33 G, 14 GS, 6-6, 5.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 63 K, 93.2 IP |
RP Chris Hatcher | 52 G, 6 H, 0-3, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 60 K, 56.0 IP |
Minor League Free-Agent Signings with Spring Training Invites
RP David Aardsma, SP Erik Bedard, RP Ryan Buchter, RP David Huff, RP Ben Rowen, RP Sergio Santos, C Ali Solis, C Shawn Zarraga, 2B/3B Buck Britton, OF Matt Carson, OF/1B Kyle Jensen
Key Losses
OF Matt Kemp | 150 G, .287/.346/.506, 38 2B, 25 HR, 89 RBI, 77 R |
SS Hanley Ramirez | 128 G, .283/.369/.448, 35 2B, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 64 R |
2B Dee Gordon | 148 G, .289/.326/.378, 24 2B, 12 3B, 64 SB, 92 R |
SP Dan Haren | 32 G, 32 GS, 13-11, 4.02 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 145 K, 186.0 IP |
SP Josh Beckett | 20 G, 20 GS, 6-6, 2.88 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 107 K, 115.2 IP |
RP Brian Wilson | 61 G, 1 SV, 2-4, 4.66 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 54 K, 48.1 IP |
RP Chris Perez | 49 G, 1 SV, 1-3, 4.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 39 K, 46.1 IP |
RP Jamey Wright | 61 G, 1 SV, 5-4, 4.35 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 54 K, 70.1 IP |
Analysis
The eight new additions above will represent nearly a third of the Dodgers' 25-man roster on Opening Day. As a result of this influx, several players from last year's team were displaced either via free agency or trade. Add it all up and this can be considered a drastic shake-up, its roots tracing back to the hiring of Friedman and Zaidi shortly after Los Angeles was eliminated in early October.
Both staunch believers in the concept of advanced metrics, Friedman and Zaidi cultivated the practice in the small markets of Tampa Bay and Oakland, respectively, where a lack of financial flexibility called for shrewd, cost-effective baseball decisions.
The front-office duo surely noticed that the team's defense could use some work when reviewing the roster inherited from former general manager Ned Colletti. The refusal to re-sign Ramirez was directly related to this reality, as he had become a liability on defense and commanded a new contract worth more money than he was worth in the minds of the Dodgers' brass. Kemp's declining defense also made him expendable, as did Gordon's.
Replacing Ramirez at shortstop will be veteran Jimmy Rollins, whom the Dodgers acquired in a trade and likely view as the ideal stopgap at the position until top prospect Corey Seager is deemed ready to take over, likely in 2016. According to FanGraphs, Rollins ranked 10th last season in defensive runs saved among shortstops with at least 500 innings under their belts. Ramirez ranked 29th. Rollins also outplayed Ramirez from an offensive perspective last season.
Howie Kendrick will be Gordon's replacement at second base and has been one of the better offensive options at the position over the past few seasons in terms of a metric called weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Since 2011, the 31-year-old has posted totals of 115, 117, 103 and 123 in terms of wRC+. Gordon's numbers during that span: 94, 58, 73 and 101.
With the glove, Kendrick's DRS ranked seventh among all second basemen with at least 500 innings played last season, per FanGraphs. Gordon's minus-five DRS ranked 25th.
Injury Updates Entering Camp
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RP Chris Withrow
Right-handed relief pitcher Chris Withrow is the only player on the 40-man roster not expected to be ready for Opening Day on April 4. He underwent Tommy John surgery last June to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow.
Withrow went under the knife again this past December to correct a herniated disc in his lower back, per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Los Angeles does not expect Withrow to be back in the bullpen until after the All-Star break in July.
The 25-year-old had become a key setup man in 2014, compiling a 2.95 ERA with 28 strikeouts and 18 walks in 21.1 innings before suffering the elbow injury in late late May. The Dodgers' middle relief corps fell to shambles last season.
Coaching Staff Analysis
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Coaching Staff
Manager | Don Mattingly | 4 |
Hitting Coach | Mark McGwire | 2 |
Assistant Hitting Coach | John Valentin | 2 |
Pitching Coach | Rick Honeycutt | 9 |
Assistant Pitching Coach | Ken Howell | 2 |
First Base Coach | Davey Lopes | 4 |
Third Base Coach | Lorenzo Bundy | 1 |
Bench Coach | Tim Wallach | 4 |
Bullpen Coach | Chuck Crim | 2 |
Catching Coach | Steve Yeager | 3 |
Special Advisor | Sandy Koufax | 2 |
Analysis
The Dodgers coaching staff seemed to be the one constant amid a whirlwind of changes this winter. According to The Associated Press' Beth Harris (h/t Yahoo Sports), it was announced in early November that the entire staff would remain intact for the 2015 season.
Manager Don Mattingly found himself on the hot seat after the St. Louis Cardinals knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs for the second straight year last fall. Change was coming, and many wondered how a team with the highest payroll in baseball could falter yet again.
Instead, Colletti took the fall and was relegated to an advisory role in favor of Zaidi.
This will be Mattingly's fifth year leading the team.
Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt, widely considered one of the best in the business, will return for a 10th season, making him the longest-tenured coach on the staff. During his nine years as pitching coach, the Dodgers have maintained the lowest ERA (3.68), fielding independent pitching (3.73), xFIP (3.84), strikeout rate (20.3 percent) and K-BB percentage (12.2 percent) in the National League, per Eric Stephen of True Blue LA.
Mark McGwire is back for his third season as the team's hitting coach. Los Angeles has finished first in the National League in OPS+ during his entire tenure, per Stephen.
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Lineup Preview
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Projected Starting Lineup
| 1. Jimmy Rollins | 138 G, .243/.323/.358, 22 2B, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 78 R, 28 SB |
| 2. Carl Crawford | 105 G, .300/.339/.429, 14 2B, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 56 R, 23 SB |
| 3. Yasiel Puig | 148 G, .296/.382/.480, 37 2B, 16 HR, 69 RBI, 92 R |
| 4. Adrian Gonzalez | 159 G, .276/.335/.461, 41 2B, 27 HR, 116 RBI, 83 R |
| 5. Howie Kendrick | 157 G, .293/.347/.397, 33 2B, 7 HR, 75 RBI, 85 R, 14 SB |
| 6. Yasmani Grandal | 128 G, .225/.327/.401, 19 2B, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 47 R |
| 7. Juan Uribe | 103 G, .311/.337/.440, 23 2B, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 36 R |
| 8. Joc Pederson | *121 G, .303/.435/.582, 17 2B, 33 HR, 78 RBI, 106 R |
*Minor League Stats (Triple-A)
Projected Bench
| Andre Ethier | 130 G, .249/.322/.370, 17 2B, 4 HR, 42 RBI, 29 R |
| A.J. Ellis | 93 G, .191/.323/.254, 9 2B, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 21 R |
| Justin Turner | 109 G, .340/.404/.493, 21 2B, 7 HR, 43 RBI, 46 R |
| Scott Van Slyke | 98 G, .297/.386/.524, 13 2B, 11 HR, 29 RBI, 32 R |
| Chris Heisey | 119 G, .222/.265/.378, 15 2B, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 34 R |
| Alex Guerrero | *77 G, .333/.373/.621, 19 2B, 17 HR, 57 RBI, 47 R |
*Minor League Stats (Rookie, Single-A, Triple-A)
Analysis
The Dodgers scored more runs and had a higher OPS than every National League team last season besides the Colorado Rockies, who play half of their games in the hitters' heaven known as Coors Field.
With Gordon, Kemp, Ramirez out of the picture, scoring runs may become more of a challenge this year. However, the team was able to retain its best offensive weapon from a season ago in Adrian Gonzalez.
Gonzalez experienced somewhat of a resurgence in 2014, compiling an isolated power metric (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .206. It was the first time he eclipsed .200 in that department since 2011. Overall, Gonzalez slashed .276/.335/.482 with an MLB-leading 116 RBI and will likely be tabbed as the Dodgers' cleanup hitter in 2015.
The Dodgers are hoping Yasiel Puig can make an offensive leap in his third year with the team. The young Cuban who plays with an unparalleled reckless abandon regressed at the plate last season. After hitting 19 home runs in just 104 games as a rookie in 2013, Puig tallied 16 home runs in 148 games last year. He slashed just .270/.353/.420 over the final four months of the season, but has been documenting his offseason workout regimen quite regularly on Instagram.
Juan Uribe will continue to hold down the hot corner in Los Angeles, fresh off leading National League third basemen with at least 850 innings in DRS last season. The 35-year-old veteran and popular clubhouse presence is entering the final year of his current contract.
Behind the plate, the Dodgers received switch-hitting catcher Yasmani Grandal as the main haul in the trade that sent Kemp to San Diego. The team is expecting Grandal to provide a bit more pop from the position (15 homers last year playing in spacious Petco Park) while forming a platoon alongside A.J. Ellis.
Rotation Preview
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Projected Rotation
| LHP Clayton Kershaw | 27 G, 27 GS, 21-3, 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 239 K, 198.1 IP |
| RHP Zack Greinke | 32 G, 32 GS, 17-8, 2.71 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 207 K, 202.1 IP |
| LHP Hyun-jin Ryu | 26 G, 26 GS, 14-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 139 K, 152.0 IP |
| RHP Brandon McCarthy | 32 G, 32 GS, 10-15, 4.05 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 175 K, 200.0 IP |
| LHP Brett Anderson | 8 G, 8 GS, 1-3, 2.91 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 29 K, 43.1 IP |
Analysis
The Dodgers will likely feature one of the best starting rotations in baseball this season, beginning with the lethal one-two punch of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.
Kershaw, to put it simply, is the best pitcher on the planet. Two hiccups during last season's National League Division Series aren't going to change that fact. The southpaw compiled a 21-3 record to go along with a 1.77 ERA in 27 starts last season, leading the majors in ERA for an unprecedented fourth consecutive season.
Greinke could easily be an ace on the majority of MLB teams, so the Dodgers should be thrilled to have him back as their No. 2 starter. Last season, the right-hander won a career-high 17 games and also reached the 200-strikeout plateau. The question facing the Dodgers is whether they should lock Greinke up with an extension before he can opt out at the end of the season. He is owed $23 million in 2015, the third season of his six-year deal.
Although he doesn't receive as much attention behind Kershaw and Greinke, Korean left-hander Hyun-jin Ryu might be one of the best No. 3 starters in the game. The reliable finesse pitcher showed improvement by increasing his strikeout rate and lowering his walk rate in 2014. However, injuries limited him to just 26 starts. The Dodgers are hoping for more of the same from the 27-year-old as he enters his third season stateside.
New additions Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson round out the back end of the Los Angeles rotation in 2015.
McCarthy was one of the first major signings under the new front-office regime, signing a four-year, $48 million contract during the winter meetings. As the projected No. 4 starter, the right-hander must prove to the Dodgers that he can put together back-to-back healthy seasons. McCarthy has made seven trips to the disabled list over the course of his nine-year career.
Anderson is 27-32 with a 3.73 ERA in 92 career games spanning six seasons with Oakland and Colorado. He was limited to just eight starts in 2014 with the Rockies because of a broken left index finger and lower back surgery but expects to be ready to roll for the start of spring training, according to Gurnick.
Bullpen Preview
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Projected Bullpen
RHP Juan Nicasio | 33 G, 14 GS, 6-6, 5.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 63 K, 93.2 IP |
RHP Joel Peralta | 69 G, 18 H, 3-4, 4.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 74 K, 63.1 IP |
RHP Chris Hatcher | 52 G, 6 H, 0-3, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 60 K, 56.0 IP |
RHP Brandon League | 63 G, 11 H, 2-3, 2.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 38 K, 63.0 IP |
LHP Paco Rodriguez | 19 G, 4 H, 1-0, 3.86 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 14 K, 14.0 IP |
LHP J.P. Howell | 68 G, 27 H, 3-3, 2.39 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 48 K, 49.0 IP |
RHP Kenley Jansen | 68 G, 44 SV, 2-3, 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 101 K, 65.1 IP |
Analysis
The Dodgers' main weakness last season was their bullpen. Los Angeles relievers combined to surrender more earned runs than 18 other bullpens around the league. They also ranked 22nd in ERA, 20th in FIP and 27th in walk rate.
Friedman and Zaidi began shoring up the bridge to effective closer Kenley Jansen by acquiring relievers Joel Peralta from Tampa Bay and Juan Nicasio from Colorado prior to the winter meetings.
Regarded as a positive clubhouse presence, the 38-year-old Peralta turned in a 3.40 FIP in 69 innings last season for Tampa Bay.
The hope with Nicasio is that by removing him from Coors Field, he might be able turn his career around pitching in Dodger Stadium. He also has the ability to make spot starts if necessary.
Southpaw J.P. Howell and right-hander Brandon League will both be back in 2015. Howell, a lefty specialist, held left-handed batters to a .170/.284/.227 slash and was almost just as effective against righties (.198/.301/.284), according to Baseball-Reference.com.
Los Angeles acquired Hatcher from Miami in the Gordon deal.
Prospects to Watch
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SS Corey Seager (ETA: 2016)
The younger brother of Seattle Mariners All-Star Kyle Seager hit .352 with 18 home runs and 70 RBI in 80 games at High-A Rancho Cucamonga last year, just one year removed from hitting .160 with 31 strikeouts in 27 games there at the end of the 2013 season.
His gaudy 2014 numbers not only earned him the California League MVP award but also a July promotion to Double-A Chattanooga, where he continued to tear the cover off the ball to the tune of a .345 batting average in 38 games.
In 23 Arizona Fall League games, Seager hit .281/.354/.472 with 10 doubles, two triples, a home run and 14 RBI.
SP Julio Urias (ETA: 2017)
The Dodgers' top pitching prospect compiled a 2.36 ERA over 20 starts last season at Class-A Rancho Cucamonga. Pitching with a five-inning limit in place, Urias was still able to mow down 109 opposing batters during his time on the mound.
He walked just 37 batters in 87 innings. Besides his 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings, the most impressive number attached to Urias is his age: 18.
RP Chris Reed (ETA: 2015)
Los Angeles selected Reed, a left-hander out of Stanford University, with their first-round pick in 2011. He was a reliever in college, but the Dodgers have used him as a starter.
Reed began 2014 at Double-A, where he went 4-8 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Those numbers earned him a promotion, which didn't go very well. Reed sputtered to a 0-3 record and 10.97 ERA at Triple-A. He'll likely try his hand there again in 2015.
Other Notable Prospects in Camp
RP Chris Anderson, SP Zach Lee, OF Scott Schebler, RP Yimi Garcia, RP Daniel Coulombe, RP Carlos Frias, C Austin Barnes, IF/OF Enrique Hernandez.
Breakout Candidates
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Joc Pederson
Mattingly considers Pederson the "best defensive center fielder" on the Dodgers, per Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times, and the rookie will have an opportunity to earn an everyday job at the position during spring training. Pederson slashed .303/.435/.582 with 135 hits and 78 RBI in 121 games at Triple-A before his September call-up last season.
Chris Hatcher
Right-hander Chris Hatcher was acquired from Miami in the Gordon deal. He compiled a 3.38 ERA and a 2.56 FIP with 60 strikeouts and just 12 walks in 56 innings last season. The 30-year-old also ranked 23rd in FIP and 20th in xFIP among relievers with at least 30 innings pitched, per FanGraphs. These impressive numbers suggest that Hatcher could prove to be more than just a throw-in from that trade.
Brett Anderson
The oft-injured left-hander has pitched well during the few extended periods of time when he has been healthy. Zaidi believes in Anderson's bounce-back potential, calling the last three years "a run of bad luck," including "a freak thumb issue and a very minor back issue," per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.
Position Battle Predictions
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Catcher: Yasmani Grandal vs. A.J. Ellis
Ellis batted just .191 in 93 games as he battled through knee and ankle injuries last season, but the Dodgers brought him back on a one-year, $4.25 million deal, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, primarily because of his strong relationship with the pitching staff.
Los Angeles still made sure to proceed with a Plan B just in case Ellis falters for a second straight year, acquiring Grandal from the Padres in the trade that sent Kemp out of town. Grandal batted .328 in 19 games in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, according to J.P. Hoornstra of InsideSocal.com, and appears over the knee injury that ended his 2013 season.
Ellis will likely be Kerhaw's personal catcher because of their close relationship on and off the field, while Grandal undoubtedly offers more pop in the lineup along with a fine .350 career on-base percentage and elite pitch-framing ability.
Prediction: Grandal
Center field: Joc Pederson vs. Andre Ethier
The battle to become the team's starting center fielder this season will come down to a seasoned veteran and a highly touted prospect.
Ethier is coming off the worst season of his career, one that saw him bat .249 with just four home runs and 42 RBI in 341 at-bats in a bench role. Meanwhile, last year, Pederson became the Pacific Coast League's first player since 1934 to hit at least 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in the same season, according to Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com.
"I think Joc should have the opportunity to compete for the position. I don't think we should hand anything over," said Mattingly, per Stephen. "It's a spot where there will be competition."
Prediction: Pederson
All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise linked/noted.
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