Pittsburgh Pirates Versus Chicago Cubs: A Study In Contrasts

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the worst record in the National League Central (although not the worst sabermetric record). The Cubs are second from the top, four-and-a-half games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the division, and five games behind the Colorado Rockies for the Wild Card.

And the differences don't stop there.

After their disastrous 2006 season (in which they finished below the Pirates), the Cubs went out and bought a division championship team by signing Alfonse Soriano and Ted Lilly (as well as Mark DeRosa and Cliff Floyd, who are no longer playing for them).

As a result, the Cubs have the third highest payroll in the majors after the two New York teams; the Pirates are the lowest after having started the year the third lowest.

The Cubs have one of the older rosters of players, with many players in their 30s, and a plethora of veterans. The Pirates have just about the youngest roster—with most players in their early to mid-20s—because all the older players were traded away. Many of these young players are promising, but few have much experience.

This series is far more critical to the Cubs, who still have playoff chances, than to the Pirates, who don't.

But if the Cubs don't make the postseason this year, their chances of doing so next year and the following year get progressively worse as their players age. On the other hand, the Pirates' chances figure to rise with each passing year as their players gain experience.

Both teams are coming off losing streaks, having lost back-to-back series to the Colorado Rockies.

The Cubs also just lost three in a row to the defending World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies. But the Pirates have a losing streak in which they've won only one of 11 games.

Given these facts, the two clubs have different strategies for winning: The Cubs will want to use their experience and their heavier hitting to get off to an early lead, maintain or expand it, and hold it down the home stretch.

The younger Pirates prefer long games, keeping things close in the early innings. Then they have a chance to overtake the Cubs in the late innings. Even extra innings would give the Pirates better chances.

Other than that, they need to work the count, draw walks, and not swing for the fences while they look for chances for the opportunistic score. Fortunately for the Cubs, the Pirates no longer have Chicago's worse nightmare: Nyjer Morgan, whose high average and base-running abilities could keep their older staff off balance.

Even so, the Pirates don't have much pressure. Winning one out of three, in light of their past record, wouldn't be all so bad. Winning two out of three, as they did recently against their other bugaboo, the Milwaukee Brewers, would be tremendous in terms of exorcising past demons, and laying a foundation for 2010.

The differences between the two teams were even highlighted by recent trades: Grabow for Ascanio looks like another Burnett for Hanrahan "sabermetric" deal. The Pirates gave up the reliever with the better ERA and the worse FIP (sabermetric ERA) for a pitcher with the worse headline number and better sabermetric number.

Chicago may have wanted 1) a left hander and 2) a more experienced pitcher going into the home stretch of a tight divisional race. And the Cubs' General Manager, Jim Hendry, is considered a "sucker," sabermetrically.

A parallel trade took place with starters. Kevin Hart, the new Pirate, figures to be a league average pitcher, based on his record earlier this year. Tom Gorzelanny the former Pirate, was once very good before collapsing in mid-2008, possibly as a result of overwork in 2007.

And Gorzelanny, who starts against Zach Duke on Saturday, has been uneven in his two starts with the Cubs. Call this trade "even"  (on current expectations, not on later outcomes).

But by trading veterans for relative rookies, the Pirates built in a potential margin of profit with Josh Harrison, a possible replacement for Freddy Sanchez at second base.

With the season coming to a close, this is a "must win" series for the aging Cubs, and a "trial heat" for the callow Pirates. That's true, even though the Cubs have a particular "lock" on the Pirates going back to 2008. For once, this Pirates fan doesn't envy the other side.