How Tom Thibodeau Can Quiet the Noise Surrounding His Chicago Bulls
Gossip is like a toxic swamp beast: It can be a spontaneously-generated thing that just feeds off negativity and grows.
Whether the monstrosity’s source is fact or fiction, it’s here and it’s hungry. Tom Thibodeau is the only one who can kill it. And neither denying nor ignoring the “rift” between him and the Chicago Bulls' front office will do that. Making the right adjustment as a coach, however, will.
It’s hard to avoid the discussion of this supposed "rift." It’s been popping up on an annual basis like the Whac-A-Mole of all sports rumors. In a bizarre way, it may not even matter if it’s even true.
The funny thing about gossip is that it can create its own reality, even if it didn’t start that way. If everyone “knows” that Johnny is a bad boy, and everyone is always saying he’s a bad boy, Johnny might end up deciding that, even though he has been a good boy, it’s time to be a bad boy. If you’re going to do the time, you might as well commit the crime, right?
The whole “rift” between Gar Forman and John Paxson in the front office? There may not be an actual ounce of substance to it. Rick Morrissey, writing for the Chicago Sun-Times, says:
"What a shame. What a shame that a brilliant coach and a front office that has done a very good job of building a championship contender can’t figure out how to play nice with each other.
You shake your head at what’s going on with the Bulls — or purportedly going on. Coach Tom Thibodeau won’t address the rift, and vice president of basketball operations John Paxson and general manager Gar Forman won’t even acknowledge one exists.
"
Of course, if one doesn’t exist, what are they supposed to say? How does a person discuss the nonexistence of a thing if not to deny or ignore it? There’s at least a possibility that it’s nothing more than gossip.
That’s not to say that there isn’t a “rift.” I have no idea. I know the reports. I’ve read them too. I’m just saying that regardless of whether the friction exists, the conversation does.
And that talk can be as damaging as a “rift” itself—even if it doesn’t, or barely, exists. The proportion of a rumor doesn’t have to correlate with its reality.
To understand what he needs to do, we need to put some context to this whole season: The Bulls were supposed to be contenders. They have their most talented group yet. Derrick Rose is back from injury. The optimism heading in was high. The fans expected much, and so did the team.
But what’s happened is not that. Instead, after a solid start, the Bulls struggled.
Some of the challenges, such as how long it would take Rose to get back to his MVP level of play, or how much Joakim Noah would be hindered by his return from knee surgery, were underestimated. So too was the integration of so many new working parts like Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Aaron Brooks.
Then the Bulls faced a cascade of injuries, with all five starters missing at least four games.
Even seemingly positive things, such as Jimmy Butler’s emergence as an offensive force and Pau Gasol’s dominance, have required adjustments to the Bulls’ chemistry. Butler, after getting off to a surreal start, shot just 41.7 percent from the field in January, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Gasol and Noah struggled together, and, as a result, the Bulls identity as a defensive force began to waver. Per NBA.com/Stats, they had a defensive rating of 104.1 in the month of January—20th in the league. Because of the amalgamation of problems, they had a 15-game span with a 5-10 record. Things were looking bleak.
There are indications, though, that Thibodeau has made the sorts of adjustments on the court that can turn things around.
The Bulls had a team meeting on Jan. 22 and since then, they own the sixth-best defensive rating in the league: 99.1. It seems that problem might be resolved.
Since Noah returned from his injury 10 games ago, when he and Gasol have been on the court together, the Bulls’ defensive rating, per NBA.com/Stats (subscription required), has been just 91.0, and the pair have combined for 24.7 points, 25.4 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 3.1 blocks. They seem to be figuring things out.
After taking a game off to recover from the flu, Butler was back to being MVP-esque, averaging 25.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.8 steals per game before departing the game against the Sacramento Kings with a shoulder injury.
Rose’s production has been up and down. But a peek at his splits shows how much it helps him when he has time to recover between games. Here they are before the Sacramento game:
| Rest | Games | FG% | TS% | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
| 0 Days | 9 | 35.2% | 0.431 | 15.1 | 3.3 | 5.8 |
| 1 Day | 19 | 39.6% | 0.478 | 19.6 | 3.2 | 4.6 |
| 2 Days | 6 | 46.1% | 0.552 | 18.3 | 2.8 | 5.0 |
| 3+ Days | 6 | 49.0% | 0.590 | 21.7 | 2.8 | 4.7 |
You might notice the one common denominator between these points is rest.
Another major issue concerning fans is Gasol in the pick-and-roll. Jason Patt from SB Nation shared Gasol’s Synergy numbers through Feb. 9:
That’s 359 points in 49 games, which means on just that one type of play, teams are averaging 7.3 points per game against Gasol. But it also means that opponents are running that play at him 8.5 times.
When you see the total number of points being scored on him, it looks bad. But when you look at the volume of shots he’s defending, it’s different. Teams are scoring just .86 points per play against Gasol on the pick-and-roll, which is a game-winning formula for the Bulls.
But a confirmation bias gets triggered in fans’ heads every time they see Gasol get scored on. They don’t register when he keeps the opponent off the board (or that Noah and Taj Gibson have been less successful defending together this year).
The sheer number of points racked up against Gasol has more to do with the volume of shots he’s guarding than the level of defense. If you cut his minutes 20 percent, you cut the number of points scored on him 20 percent, solving the problem for the confirmation bias.
More importantly, he’s not dead by the time the playoffs arrive. And it opens up more time for Mirotic to play. That brings us to how Thibodeau can solve the problem of the "rift." All he has to do is tweak the minutes.
If there really is a problem, it seems the sticking point between the coach and the front office is he's overplaying the vets. So if there is a real problem, this would address it directly. But even if it's not a real issue, or an overblown one, tweaking the minutes addresses the fake one.
Giving the youngsters a few more minutes does three things for the Bulls:
- It gives the kids a chance to learn.
- It gives the vets a chance to rest.
- It gives media a chance to change the narrative.
Butler is playing almost 40 minutes a night while Doug McDermott—the rookie small forward whose draft rights the Bulls traded two first-round picks for—has played 9:31 in the eight games since he returned from injury.
Gasol's 35 minutes exceeds his age, 34, which is way too much, particularly with Mirotic chomping at the bit.
Second-year swingman Tony Snell doesn’t know if he’s going to start or notch a DNP from night to night. For example, he started and played 32 minutes on Jan. 14. He didn’t even take the court the next two nights. He’s earning a rotation spot, though. His career-high 24 points against the Kings sure won’t hurt. It's hard to build confidence like that.
Nikola Mirotic has shown himself to be more than capable when he’s played, averaging 15.1 points and 9.0 rebounds per 36 minutes. But his playing time is also sporadic. He recorded just 12 minutes against the Kings.
The first two reasons should be enough alone, but the last is not by any means the least. First, look at this scene from the game against the New Orleans Pelicans on Feb. 7:
"GIF: Tony Snell, Joakim Noah, Jimmy Butler reaction after E'Twaun Moore alley oop. https://t.co/nNSe5JymK1
— Marcus (@_MarcusD_) February 8, 2015"
And now this tweet from ESPN Chicago’s Nick Friedell after the zany win over the Orlando Magic the following night:
The Bulls have been in dire need of happiness. The constant drumbeat of negative stories wears a team down. Will Rose be able to play? When will he be able to play well? Is he shooting too many threes? Why are the Bulls losing? Is Jimmy Butler playing too many minutes? Is Thibodeau going to be back next year? These, and countless other narratives, swarm the Chicago airwaves.
Is it any wonder the Bulls are worse at home (14-11) than on the road (19-9)? Not getting inundated with demoralizing stories while away makes it easier. It’s telling that the team finally found their joy on the road.
By contrast, when “Snelly Cat,” as Noah has dubbed him, had his great game, that’s all anyone wanted to talk about in the locker room. Even the media prefers to be happy.
The way to kill the Gossip Monster is in Thibodeau’s power. He can change the talking points by providing the media with more positive stories to report on and starve the negative beast out. If everyone’s chatting about wins, who has time to discuss where Thibodeau will coach next year?
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