Grading Every Miami Heat Player Heading into 2015 NBA All-Star Break
The 2014-15 season hasn't quite gone as planned for the Miami Heat.
After signing Luol Deng and Josh McRoberts, Miami was expected to be one of the Eastern Conference's better teams this year. With Deng serving as a capable LeBron James replacement and McRoberts spacing the floor alongside Chris Bosh, the Heat appeared poised to compete for one of the East's top playoff spots.
Thanks to some tough injuries, ill-fitting pieces and just plain bad luck, the Heat sit at 22-29 and are barely hanging on to the East's No. 8 seed.
There's a lot of season left and plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Heat moving forward, especially now that they may have discovered a secret weapon (more on that later). But there's no question the year's first half has been a disappointment. As for who's most responsible for that disappointment...that could take some digging.
Let's take a look at the Heat roster and dole out some marks heading into the All-Star break. Grades are based on both production and preseason expectations.
The Reserves
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James Ennis
Ennis is still raw, but there's a lot to like about his play this season.
Ennis is a freak athlete, and he has a surprisingly nuanced shot selection for a rookie. Nearly 75 percent of his offense comes either directly at the rim or behind the three-point line, and no wing on the Heat roster gets to the rim or free-throw line at a higher rate. That makes Ennis an ideal fit for the Heat's system.
It's not all good, of course. Ennis is a poor three-point shooter (30 percent on the year) and finisher at the rim. ESPN's real plus-minus system also pegs him as a big defensive minus, a tad surprising given his athleticism. Still, Ennis has been a pleasant surprise this season and should be a good rotation player in the future.
Grade: C+
Justin Hamilton
It's hard to judge a player on just 286 minutes of play, but Hamilton has been pretty bad in those minutes.
Hamilton is posting a true shooting percentage of 46.1 and is rebounding at truly disappointing rates for a center. His willingness to shoot threes is nice, but he's hitting just 28 percent from downtown. Stretch 5s aren't common, making Hamilton an interesting prospect at the very least. But he hasn't done anything to deserve real minutes this season.
Grade: D
Udonis Haslem
Haslem was a good role player for years, but he simply isn't effective at this point in his career.
Haslem's jumper has abandoned him, and he's even struggling to convert easy looks around the rim, something he's historically been terrific at. For what it's worth, he's still a decent defensive rebounder and has some value as a spot defender when Miami really needs a stop. That doesn't outweigh how damaging his lack of offense is, though. Miami's minutes are better off going elsewhere.
Grade: D+
Tyler Johnson
Johnson is now officially going to be a member of the Heat for the rest of the year. And considering how poor their point guard play has been, he might even have an outside shot at minutes.
Johnson has looked great in limited time, true shooting over 60 percent and even putting up an 18-point game against the San Antonio Spurs. He's not going to be doing that every night—he struggles to get to the rim in the half court, and much of his scoring has come off tough jumpers. However, if he keeps shooting well from three, there could be a place in the rotation for him.
Johnson shot over 40 percent from deep in his final two years at Fresno State. Hitting similar percentages this year isn't entirely out of the question.
Grade: A-
Josh McRoberts
This is just sad. McRoberts is expected to miss the rest of the season with a torn meniscus. When healthy, he's one of the league's more entertaining players. The Heat were also playing great basketball with him on the floor. Hopefully, he comes back at 100 percent next year.
Grade: N/A
Chris Andersen
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There's relatively little to say about Chris Andersen, who's virtually the same player he was last year.
Andersen's rebounding and scoring numbers have taken a modest step back, but he's still an efficient offensive player and is solid in the pick-and-roll. Andersen is shooting 70 percent at the rim, and nearly three quarters of his shots are coming right at the basket.
The Heat have been surprisingly horrendous offensively with Andersen on the court. Miami is scoring 99.7 points per 100 possessions during Andersen's time on the floor, a bottom-five rate. That's not to knock his play—the problem mostly lies with how clunky the Andersen-Bosh pairing has been this season.
The Heat are scoring just 93.3 points per 100 possessions when the two share the court, a mark that would blow away every other team in the league (in a bad way) if not for the Philadelphia 76ers' historic ineptitude.
The pair was fantastic together last season, so there's always the chance this is just a small sample size issue—the two certainly fit well on paper. Either way, it's worth monitoring. Miami can't afford to waste minutes on such ineffective lineups.
Defensively, Andersen is no longer the rim-protecting monster he once was, but most advanced metrics grade him out at around neutral. Which, considering his age (he's 35 years old), is actually rather impressive.
Grade: B-
Chris Bosh
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As was expected after James' departure, Bosh's numbers have jumped significantly. He's averaging 21 points and 7.3 rebounds per game on 55 percent true shooting. Those are pretty impressive numbers considering how much more offense he's being asked to create this season.
What's interesting about Bosh, however, isn't so much his production as it is the way he's playing offense. Over the course of just two seasons, Bosh has become one of the most perimeter-oriented big men in the league.
Nearly 80 percent (!) of Bosh's shots have been jumpers this season, up from 69 percent last year.
He's taking threes at roughly the same rate. But just 17 percent of his shots are coming at the rim, by far the lowest mark of his career. And that's despite the fact that Bosh's time of possession has doubled this season. Even his post-ups typically end in face-up jumpers.
This isn't a shot at Bosh. He should be commended for overhauling his game to suit Miami's needs and doing it in such a short time. The fact that he's hardly lost a step in the process is tremendous. It's just surprising.
The assumption was that Bosh would emulate his Toronto self this year. Thus far, nothing has been further from the truth.
The biggest beneficiary of Bosh's range: Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside's true shooting percentage is 68.6 with Bosh on the floor and 57.6 when he's not, per nbawowy!. With Bosh spacing the floor, Whiteside has all the room in the world to wreck havoc in the pick-and-roll.
Grade: B
Mario Chalmers
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The good news is that Mario Chalmers is getting to the basket a lot this season. A big chunk of his shots are coming in the paint, and his free-throw rate has taken a huge leap. He's not converting at the rim all that much, but he gets defenses scrambling by getting there so often.
He's also playing solid defense, with opponents shooting 3 percent less than usual when he's guarding them. All good things. Unfortunately, the bad news is everything else.
Chalmers is shooting 39.9 percent from the field and a crippling 27 percent from deep. That's a not-so-good number for a guy whose primary function in the offense is to hit spot-up threes. He's also turning the ball over a lot, and the Heat have basically forgotten how to score when he's on the floor.
The odds are good that Chalmers turns all this around at some point in the season. He's shot at least 38 percent from deep over the past three years. Even if the looks he's getting now aren't quite as clean as in seasons past, his drop in shooting shouldn't be this dramatic.
If he wants that turnaround to come in a Heat jersey, though, he'd better start making some progress soon. As it stands, the Heat likely wouldn't hesitate to send Chalmers elsewhere if the right deal were to come along.
Grade: D
Norris Cole
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This year has been a nightmare for Norris Cole. There's no other way to put it.
Cole's shooting just 25 percent from deep and 38 percent from the field, good for a true shooting percentage of 45.1. Just a handful of guys have played major minutes and been that inefficient offensively. Cole brings less to the table than any of them.
That kind of offense might be survivable if Cole were a Tony Allen-like defender, but that's obviously not the case. Cole plays hard on that end. But he's an overall minus, and the Heat as a whole struggle badly when he's on the floor.
ESPN's real plus-minus system ranks Cole 76th among point guards (out of 82), and that honestly feels a tad high based on how he's played. Hopefully, Cole can get it together and get in a nice groove following the All-Star break.
Grade: D
Luol Deng
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Deng was the Heat's big offseason acquisition, and he's been every bit as good as advertised.
Deng is enjoying the most efficient scoring year of his career by far and is shooting 37 percent from three. He's a career 33 percent shooter from deep, so that three-point marksmanship has been a surprise and a much-needed one.
As a team, the Heat shoot 34.4 percent from downtown, a nearly bottom-10 mark. Deng is one of their few knockdown outside shooters, and he gives Bosh and Whiteside in particular a little room to breathe in the paint.
Improved three-point shooting isn't the only reason for Deng's bump in efficiency, however. He's been much better at attacking and finishing at the rim this season. Deng has always been a solid secondary ball-handler, but he's rarely been surrounded by good shooters.
Miami as a whole isn't a good shooting team, but Deng has logged a ton of time with its two best—Bosh and Shawne Williams. Thanks, in part, to that, Deng has been terrific at finishing at the basket. He's shooting 52.5 percent on drives this year (up from 41 percent last season) and shooting 65 percent at the rim overall.
On top of that, he's playing solid wing defense and checking multiple positions on some nights. He's not doing much wrong.
One thing worth monitoring: Deng's minutes at the 4. Whiteside's emergence means it's likely that the Heat will (and should) be going big a lot more often moving forward. But Miami has a lot of small-ball options, and playing Deng at power forward could be a really nice alternative to those bigger lineups.
The Heat haven't been great with him there yet, per 82games.com. But the potential for some really good groups is there.
Grade: A
Danny Granger
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Danny Granger was once one of the most feared wing scorers in the league, but the hope that he could somehow regain that form in Miami is all but gone.
With that being said, it's not as though Granger is a bad player now. In fact, he's emerged as a capable spot-up-shooting role player. This season, Granger is shooting 36 percent from deep and an even 40 percent from the corners. Three-pointers make up over half of his shot attempts.
That gives Granger the potential to be a useful rotation piece for a championship contender but makes him a less than ideal fit in Miami.
The Heat need some consistent shot creation out of Granger. Unfortunately, that's just not something he can deliver anymore. He still gets to the line at a decent clip, but he's not attacking the rim like he used to, and his once-vaunted pull-up game is all but gone.
Miami clearly needs to reload its roster, and it will probably field some calls regarding Granger's availability at the trade deadline. If it can get a young player or pick out of the deal, flipping him may be for the best. He's having a solid season, but he's just not the kind of player the Heat really need right now.
Grade: B-
Shabazz Napier
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There were a lot of reasons to be skeptical about how Shabazz Napier's game would translate to the NBA.
Dean On Draft's Dean Demakis summed it up nicely last June: "He grades as a solid statistical prospect, and I quite like him as a 3 + D PG paired with a bigger PG to run the offense and defend the wing. But he’s also tiny, unathletic, old, and not an elite playmaker at the deepest position in the league."
Those are all big issues, and it's very unlikely that Napier ever becomes a star. But he's already started to tailor his game to the NBA, and he could be a good role player if everything breaks right.
Napier is shooting just 36 percent from the field, but he's hitting 35 percent from deep, including 42 percent from the corners. Those aren't knockdown numbers, but they're at least reason to believe that he'll be a solid shooter down the road.
The problems with Napier emerge when he's actually trying to attack defenses off the dribble or in the pick-and-roll. He doesn't have the sheer quickness or ball-handling to get to the rim easily, and he turns the ball over a ton when he tries to do so.
As a result, Napier has leaned on his pull-up jumper, often launching mid-range attempts as soon as he turns the corner on a screen. He's shooting 36 percent on those pull-up shots this season.
Napier has shown some flashes of drive-and-kick ability this season, a good sign moving forward. He's also experimented with Stephen Curry-esque pick-and-roll threes (to little success, but it gives him a little added offensive threat).
If the Heat continue to treat Napier as a primary ball-handler rather than a spot-up shooter, he'll need to be able to do things like that consistently.
Overall, there's reason to be optimistic about Napier, even if he's in the middle of a rough rookie season. He's shown some NBA-caliber skills and should be a part of the rotation for some time to come.
Grade: C
Dwyane Wade
9 of 11
Statistically, 2014-15 is arguably Dwyane Wade's worst season in 10 years. But that belies just how good he's been this year.
With James gone, Wade has once again had to take up the task of creating the vast majority of Miami's shots. And he's done an admirable job. He's averaging 21.4 points, 5.4 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game on 54.5 percent true shooting and remains one of the best wings in the league.
Miami would no doubt be lost without Wade. But that's not just a compliment; it's also a big problem.
Just three players in league history have posted seasons of 34 percent usage or higher at Wade's age—Kobe Bryant, Bernard King and Michael Jordan. Only Bryant played at a high level the following year. And unfortunately, he wasn't able to maintain that for long.
This is somewhat of a cherry pick. It's entirely possible that Wade will be able to keep up this kind of play for the next few years.
But the Heat would be foolish to gamble needlessly with his health. Wade's injury history is expansive, and he's already been banged up multiple times this season. Miami simply cannot allow him to take this kind of abuse for the rest of the year.
It's nice that the Heat are fighting for the postseason, but they have no real shot at making noise if they get there. Even if it costs them a few wins, it's worth easing the strain on Wade and funneling some of his possessions elsewhere. His health is just too important to risk.
Grade: A-
Hassan Whiteside
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Hassan Whiteside's play might wind up being the biggest surprise of the season. What he's doing right now is phenomenal.
Whiteside's averaging 9.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.5 blocks...in 19 minutes a game. He's averaging 18.2 points, 15.6 rebounds and 4.6 blocks on 65 percent true shooting per 36 minutes. He is rampaging through the league.
Obviously, Whiteside won't be able to keep up this level for too long, because nobody plays like this over the course of an entire season. But he's quite clearly Miami's best traditional big man and a deadly half-court weapon.
Whiteside has been a pick-and-roll destroyer. He has great hands, can dunk just about anything and is shooting 77 percent at the rim.
He has no jumper to speak of, but that's hardly an issue when he's paired with Bosh, who can space the floor with his shooting. The Heat are outscoring opponents by 20.7 points per 100 possessions when Whiteside, Bosh and Wade share the floor, an outrageous mark.
Defensively, Whiteside has had a similar impact. Opponents are shooting 41.3 percent against him at the rim, and he's currently blocking shots at the highest rate in league history. He won't be swatting shots at quite that level all season, but he's done little to suggest that his rim protection has been a fluke.
The Heat are outscoring teams by 3.1 points per 100 possessions with Whiteside on the floor and getting smoked when he rides the bench. Time will tell if Whiteside is really this good. But few players have been better over the past few months.
Grade: A+
Shawne Williams
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Shawne Williams looked like the signing of the year to start the season.
Through November, Williams shot 48 percent from deep on 4.3 attempts per game. That was easily the best mark on the team, and it was enough to make him a mainstay in the starting lineup. That's not too shabby for a fringe signing who wasn't expected to give Miami much more than garbage minutes.
However, the outlook has not been so good for Williams over the past two months. Since December, he's shooting only 31 percent from deep. The Heat have struggled to score with him on the floor over that same span.
Unfortunately, Williams doesn't bring much else to the table besides three-point attempts. The vast majority of his shots are spot-up attempts from beyond the arc. And while he can occasionally create a little offense for himself, it hardly makes up for his lack of shooting or porous defense.
Williams' minutes have been cut drastically in recent weeks. If he keeps playing so poorly, he's in real danger of falling out of the rotation. There's always a chance that his shot will return. But the outlook isn't great considering he's a career 34.5 percent shooter.
Grade: C
All statistics accurate as of Feb. 11, 2015 and courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball-Reference unless stated otherwise.
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