Will The Braves' 2009 Season Come Down To Kenshin Kawakami?

The Braves' 2009 playoff hopes may come down to Kenshin Kawakami, the most inconsistent starter on the Braves' staff this season.

When he makes his start against the Phillies on Saturday, it could very well be the most important start of his short Major League career.

If the Braves win the first game of the series, they will be only four games back in the National League East race and will be facing a Phillies team that has not been playing particularly well recently. In their last 14 games, the Phillies are 6-8. However, if you remove games in which the Phillies' starter was not named Cliff Lee, they are 3-8. Lee will not be pitching this weekend.

A win the first game would certainly give the Braves confidence for the rest of the weekend.

On the other hand, if the Phillies can manage to beat Jair Jurrjens, the Braves will be six games back and facing a more confident Phillies team. Not a prospect any Braves' fan wants to see.

That is why Kawakami's start on Saturday is so important. If the Braves can take the first two games of the series, they will find themselves only three games back with a great chance to win on Sunday. If they lose Friday and Saturday, they will be seven games back by Sunday.

A sweep would be devastating to the Braves' playoff hopes.

The real question though is which Kenshin Kawakami will show up on Saturday. Will it be the player who shutout the Dodgers over seven strong innings last Saturday? Or will it be the player who allowed six runs to the Marlins in less than five innings two starts earlier?

Considering Kawakami's home ERA is over a point and a half lower than his away ERA and he has been pitching better since the All-Star break, there is reason to believe that we will see the same pitcher we saw this past Saturday.

Either way, Saturday's game might just be the most important one the Braves play all season and Kawakami could be the unlikely hero.