Fear Not Astro Fans, Second Half Surge Is on the Way

The Astros are exactly where they usually are at this point in the season.

Left for dead, barely limping along to the finish line, just trying to finish the season above .500 and making most 'Stros fans think about next year (which is not fun to do when looking at our farm system).

They are seven games out of the playoffs as of today, which is sadly an improvement at this point compared to past seasons.

But this is just business as usual for our beloved Houston Astros.

The team waits 'til about a month to a month-and-a-half left in the season to make their run. 

Just three weeks ago, they were a game out of first after a sweep of the Cardinals at home, and it looked like they were getting an early start on their typical comeback trail.

A week later, they had dropped two of three to the Mets at home and five out of seven to the Cubs and Cardinals, plopping them back to where they feel more comfortable.

But fear not Astro fans, for the storms are swirling in favor of a second-half surge. 

Here's the first reason the Astros are on their way back: Lance Berkman.

He's been on the DL since July 23, oddly enough when the Astros picked up their losing ways. 

His first day back was yesterday, and the team responded by scoring 14 runs off Ricky Nolasco, who has been no slouch on the mound in the second half of the season.

In fact, over his past five outings he held opposing hitters to a .202 batting average, a .258 on-base percentage, and struck out 35 batters in 33.1 innings.

So this wasn't against a creampuff pitcher.

Berkman adds versatility to the lineup with a switch hitting power bat that fits perfectly between Tejada and Lee.  In his return he also creates opportunities for Lee, Pence and Blum, putting more pressure on the opposing pitchers. 

With the Achilles' heel of this team being the starting pitching, the Astros will need to take a Texas Rangers approach to winning, and hope their starting pitching can just keep them in games. 

I said this at the start of the year for the team and it's going to be more true now.

The pitchers just need to keep the game close—something along the lines of six innings pitched, while giving up only three or four runs.  Keep the damage to a minimum and the offense can tie it or take the lead with all their heavy hitters. 

Do that, and that's the first step to success.

And that is the other reason the Astros will make a second half run: the pitching.

They now have a healthy Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt, and Mike Hampton.  Toss in the surprisingly effective Bud Norris and now the Astros have a decent enough rotation to get them a winning streak. 

Wandy Rodriguez is having a career year with 11 wins and 2.51 ERA. 

Roy Oswalt is a second half pitcher, and if you don't think so just take a peek at last year when he reeled off 10 wins in his last 13 starts of the year, including a 32.1 scoreless innings streak. 

Norris may be that small piece (a la Randy Wolf in 2008) that can put them over the top, as he has pitched considerably well.  He hasn't been able to get deep in games, but he hasn't gotten knocked around either.

He's also very adept at minimizing damage and, despite letting baserunners on, he can strike guys out and work his way out of jams remarkably well for a rookie pitcher.

If the Astros do need a boost in the rotation, they can always sign Vicente Padilla or John Smoltz on the cheap and take a chance to see if they can boost the rotation and put Moehler in long relief to help the bullpen.

The third reason the Astros are going to make a second half push is because they don't have that much ground to make up.

Seven games with a month-and-a-half to go is definitely attainable.  That's gaining one game a week, and all it takes is a hot streak to close the gap faster. 

The schedule also helps the 'Stros, as they have six games left against the division leading Cardinals.  That gives them ample opportunity with a couple series wins to get within striking distance.

Their schedule is tough toward the end of the year, but September is going to be a very good month to them.  In September, they have 16 home games including a 10-game homestand that has them facing the Braves and Pirates.  Those are two very sweep-able teams. 

The 'Stros will really have to take advantage of that home cookin' if they're going to make that push at the end of August, as the beginning of October is quite brutal with the road schedule. 

Finally, the reason the Astros will do it:

Because of tradition. 

Milwaukee has Brats, tailgating, and the sausage races.

Tampa Bay has the Mo-Hawk, the Cow Bell, and the Old People.

Chicago has the Ivy, the celebrity seventh-inning stretch, and drunk guys and girls who suck as people.

Just like those traditions, Houston has one.

It's watching our team every year and, at some point in the season, finally giving up and losing hope.  We say, "It's not going to happen this year, they're done, no way, no how.  They're playing too poorly, the deficit is too much."

Yet, every year they find a new way to at least make it interesting.

Now, I'm not saying they will necessarily make the playoffs, but considering it won't take more than 90 wins to get there, it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

So a 34-14 finish, at best, is what they need to make it to the October dance.

Not too bad compared to 2004, when they went 36-10 to finish the season and make the playoffs.

Or 2005, when they started 15-30 and then went 74-43 to go to the World Series.

Or how about 2006, when they were seven games out with a week-and-a-half to go and got within a game before finally bowing out of the race?

Or maybe 2008, when they were six-and-a-half games out of the Wild Card on Aug. 31, then two-and-a-half out on Sep. 13, before getting absolutely screwed by mother nature and Major League Baseball.  (Still a little sore about that one.)

So here it comes, Astro fans. Fear not.

We've been in worse situations and pulled it out.  And who knows, this may be the year the Astros put it all together for a magical October.