Analyzing Packers' Best Trade Options with 30th Pick in NFL Draft

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson has been called "Trader Ted" due to his frequent trades throughout draft weekend. Since taking over in Green Bay in 2005, Thompson has made it clear time and time again that his team-building strategy is firmly based in acquiring young talent through the draft (or even as undrafted free agents) and rewarding those homegrown players if they produce for the Packers. 

"We're always trying to add quality and class and competition to our team," Thompson said in April 2012, via Rob Reischel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "Things happen, people get hurt. I don't think you ever have too many guys, so we're not concerned about having too many."

And a great way to leave draft weekend with a lot of guys is to trade down to acquire more picks, especially if Thompson doesn't see value at Green Bay's pick. 

In fact, the 2014 draft was the first time in the 10 drafts throughout Thompson's tenure in Green Bay in that he did not made a single trade. 

Thompson has built a reputation of drafting for value not need. But the 2014 draft, especially, proved that's not a hard-and-fast rule. Free safety was Green Bay's most glaring need last offseason, and Thompson took Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in the first round (a best-player-available pick in addition to need).

But Green Bay also lost wide receiver James Jones and center Evan Dietrich-Smith in free agency, and the Packers came out of draft weekend with three receivers (Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis), a center (Corey Linsley) and even a tight end (Richard Rodgers) to mitigate the loss of Jermichael Finley. 

Heading into the 2015 draft, the Packers have an obvious need at inside linebacker and will take another tight end. With Letroy Guion's recent arrest, a defensive tackle could be on the table, as well. Though the Packers have needs to address, don't expect Thompson to break character for the second year in a row and shy away from trades. 

The Packers currently have a pick in each round of the 2015 draft, but Over the Cap projects they could receive two sixth-round compensatory picks for 2014 free agents Jones and Dietrich-Smith, giving them nine overall. Because those are not confirmed, we will not speculate about them here, but it's a possibility.

With the 30th pick, there are plenty of options for Thompson to resume his dealin' ways in 2015.

Note that all player projections and any scenarios based on them are pre-combine and are bound to change between now and April.

Trade out of the 1st Round

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

At Green Bay's draft position, unless Ted Thompson has his sights set on a player specifically projected not to fall out of the first round, there's not always a lot of difference between pick No. 30 overall and Nos. 33-39 overall.

If Thompson is keeping an eye on Mississippi State inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney, he may be realizing he can get him within the first few picks of the second round. ESPN.com's Todd McShay, in his most recent mock draft (subscription required), doesn't have McKinney coming off the board in the first round, while his colleague Mel Kiper has him going to the Denver Broncos at 28th overall. 

But if Thompson is confident he could grab McKinney in the early second, he could dangle the 30th pick to teams hoping to jump back into the first round. The Buffalo Bills, for example, do not currently have a first-round selection after giving it up to the Cleveland Browns in order to draft Sammy Watkins. 

The Packers had the 30th pick in the 2008 draft, but Thompson dealt it to the New York Jets in exchange for a second-round pick (36) and a fourth-round pick (102). 

That 36th pick landed the Packers' Jordy Nelson, so trading out of the first round into the early second (with an additional fourth-round pick to boot) has been a successful strategy for Green Bay in the past. Thompson may not value McKinney as high as the first round (and of course that could change after the NFL Scouting Combine) but could potentially grab him between picks 33 and 39.

Make a Rare Trade Up in Round 1

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Thompson doesn't trade up in the first round often, as it typically doesn't correspond with his strategy of drafting for value rather than need. 

However, when he has done it in the past, he's found success. In 2009, Thompson traded a second-round and two third-round picks to the New England Patriots in exchange for an additional first-round pick. At No. 26, Thompson selected Clay Matthews. 

“We thought it was an opportunity to get a pretty special player," Thompson said in 2012, via Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Thompson went on to say:

"

We started earlier than when we got him, but we kept plugging away and were fortunate and lucky that he was still available. That’s just the way it worked out. We’ve gone the other way probably more... but you know if you identify something that you see that fits a lot of the criteria that you’re looking for, that’s a different thing.

"

It's the only time during his tenure in Green Bay that Thompson has traded up in the first round, but he clearly isn't opposed to the idea if there's a truly special player there. Could that be the case with Florida State's Eddie Goldman?

After defensive tackle Letroy Guion's arrest, the Packers could look at bringing back former first-round pick and free agent B.J. Raji on another one-year prove-it deal. But Raji will turn 29 in July, and though the drop-off in the level of his play is almost certainly tied to his position change from nose tackle to defensive end, he hasn't taken the field in a year after being placed on injured reserve last offseason. 

Goldman could be the future anchor of Green Bay's defensive line—a player who doesn't sacrifice quickness for size and is excellent at stopping the run, a huge need for Green Bay. 

"His steady development, proven versatility and NFL-ready frame make him one of the most intriguing defensive tackle prospects in the country," CBSSports.com's Rob Rang wrote about Goldman.

ESPN.com's Todd McShay sees Goldman being drafted as early as No. 17 by the San Diego Chargers, and his combine performance could change that. If Thompson has his eye on Goldman, he would likely need to initiate talks with teams in that range. Perhaps San Francisco, with the No. 15 pick, would be an interested party. 

The question would be what Green Bay would have to give up to move up. Per the draft trade value chart, a No. 15 overall pick would be about equal to Green Bay's 30th pick this year, as well as a second and third. If the Packers could give up their 30th and 94th this year but push the second-round pick to 2016, perhaps this scenario becomes more than a pipe dream.

Move Up in Round 3

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

The Packers may be really high on second-year tight end Richard Rodgers heading into 2015, after he began to flash as a pass-catcher at the end of the 2014 season. However, Rodgers still has a lot of development to undergo to become a complete weapon at tight end, and the Packers are still expected to select another player at the position this season.

Some, such as ESPN.com's Todd McShay, see them doing that as early as the first round. In his most recent mock draft, McShay has the Packers taking Minnesota tight end Maxx Williams in the first round. 

However, with other needs at inside linebacker and defensive tackle, perhaps the Packers will have their sights set on another Big Ten product. Penn State's Jesse James, an underclassman with freakish size (6'7", 254 lbs) and a demonstrated ability to gain yards after the catch, is CBSSports.com's third-ranked tight end in the draft. 

However, CBS draft analysts also see James coming off the board at 83rd overall, 11 spots before Green Bay's pick at No. 94. 

In 2010, Green Bay traded its 86th and 122nd picks in the third and fourth round, respectively, to the Philadelphia Eagles to gain their 71st pick, which they used to draft Morgan Burnett. If Green Bay hasn't addressed the tight end position by Round 3 and has James on its board, perhaps Thompson will execute a similar trade to be sure he has the opportunity to obtain him.

Trade Down in Round 2

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

With only their seven picks in each round of the 2015 draft currently confirmed and potential compensatory picks still unannounced, one of the best ways for Thompson to get more bang for his buck this year is to shop Green Bay's pick at No. 60. 

Multiple teams are sure to be interested in a move back into the end of the second round, and while the 2015 draft class isn't the deepest, there's plenty of talent through Round 3. In the third and fourth rounds alone, Green Bay could find players ranked highly at multiple positions on the board, including Penn State tight end Jesse James, Florida State tight end Nick O'Leary and Georgia inside linebacker Ramik Wilson. 

And if we're talking about a scenario in which the Packers have acquired extra picks in exchange for their second-rounder, one intriguing prospect likely to be on the board for them is Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty.

Even if Green Bay is still a draft or two (or three) away from acquiring Aaron Rodgers' future replacement, with the demonstrated success of Mike McCarthy's quarterback school, Thompson could select Petty in Round 3, develop him, and then hopefully trade him for a pick that's higher than the one at which the Packers got him.

In 2006, Thompson traded Green Bay's 36th pick to the New England Patriots and got a late second-round pick (52) and a third-round pick (75) in return. A similar trade in 2015 could give Thompson the option to capitalize on the talent available in Rounds 2 and 3.

Stockpile

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The most likely option among this bunch, Trader Ted could simply end up doing what he loves most in 2015: stockpiling draft picks.

With only seven confirmed selections heading into the draft, and potentially two more coming via compensatory picks, Thompson is sure to be under his comfort level in terms of how many players he can walk away from draft weekend with. 

As Grantland's Bill Barnwell points out in his excellent piece on Thompson from 2013, in his first four drafts as general manager in Green Bay, Thompson was involved in 21 total trades.

In only two of those 21 trades did the Packers give up more picks than they received.

While Thompson's eye toward value rather than need has given Green Bay sustained success over the years, in years like this, where Green Bay is a championship-ready team in all but a couple of positions, he also needs to grab the right talent at the right spot in the draft. That may mean being a little stingy with his first- and and second-round picks. 

But Thompson has had past success taking mid-round commodities and making them magically multiply. 

Perhaps in 2015, Thompson will take a page from his 2005 draft book, in which he turned one pick (89th overall) into five (115, 167, 195, 245 and 246).