NFL Draft 2015: Breaking Down Surprise Picks in 1st-Round Mock Draft

Comparing the NFL draft to outer space wouldn't seem to make sense on its face, but thinking about things, it turns out to be apt. Both are about exploring the unknown and hoping to find something that may be hard to define with an intrinsic value. 

As the 2015 class prepares for its moment in the spotlight, especially with the recent release of the players invited to the NFL Scouting Combine, the unknowns will come into focus. There are a lot of questions about this group of players, regardless of position. 

It seems likely a quarterback will be taken with the first pick, but the best player could be a defensive lineman for the second consecutive year. There are a plethora of wide receivers with first-round potential, though none of them will look as good in a workout as any of last year's crop. 

Right or wrong, fairly or unfairly, draft picks are always competing with someone to make their mark. Competition is what drives the sport and keeps fans watching. 

As the combine inches toward starting, here's a look at how the first round will shake out. There are also going to be plenty of surprises, which will be focused on in the breakdown. 

2015 1st-Round NFL Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Leonard Williams, DL, USC
4	Oakland Raiders	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5	Washington	Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
6	New York Jets	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
7	Chicago Bears	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
8	Atlanta Falcons	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
9	New York Giants	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
10	St. Louis Rams	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
11	Minnesota Vikings	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
12	Cleveland Browns	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
13	New Orleans Saints	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
14	Miami Dolphins	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15	San Francisco 49ers	Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
16	Houston Texans	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
17	San Diego Chargers	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
19	Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo)	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
23	Detroit Lions	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
24	Arizona Cardinals	Carl Davis, DT, Iowa
25	Carolina Panthers	La'El Collins, G, LSU
26	Baltimore Ravens	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
27	Dallas Cowboys	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
28	Denver Broncos	Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
29	Indianapolis Colts	Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
30	Green Bay Packers	Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
31	Seattle Seahawks	Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
32	New England Patriots	Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State

Order via NFL.com, picks via Adam Wells

 

No. 9: Arik Armstead to the Giants

Craig Mitchelldyer/Getty Images

Arik Armstead is one of the most difficult prospects to place in this draft. He's going to be everything scouts look for in a defensive end, whether in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme, because of his athleticism and 6'8", 290-pound frame. 

Lance Zierlein's scouting report on NFL.com perfectly encapsulates the conundrum that teams will face with Armstead:

"

Projection-based prospect with elite size and the traits to become a dominant run-stuffing defensive end in an odd front. Armstead has the explosiveness off the snap and in his jarring punch to gain early advantages and control offensive linemen. Armstead is a fast riser but is still very raw. He will need patience and coaching and must become a more effective pass rusher at some point.

"

The Oregon star had three years to translate his talent into production, yet he never managed more than 5.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks in a season.

On a pure production level, Armstead can't hold a candle to Vic Beasley (24 total sacks in 2013-14), but Beasley is 6'2" and 220 pounds. The ceiling for Armstead is off the charts, which is why he's going to end up as a top-10 pick. 

The question becomes, which team pulls the trigger? Once Leonard Williams, Randy Gregory and Shane Ray are off the board, likely in the first eight picks, the Giants make the most sense for Armstead because they have a need. 

Jason Pierre-Paul, who led the Giants with 12.5 sacks in 2014, is a free agent and could command a huge contract. Dan Graziano of ESPN suggests that New York should franchise the 26-year-old:

"

So, since the Giants don't need to do a long-term deal with Pierre-Paul just to keep his 2015 cap number low, I don't see the reason to do it at all. Pierre-Paul is immensely talented and still very young (he just turned 26 last month), but his career hasn't been a consistent one. Brilliant in 2011 with 16.5 sacks in the Super Bowl season, Pierre-Paul had only 8.5 sacks total over the two years that followed. He was slowed significantly by injuries in both of those seasons, and missed five games with shoulder and back issues in 2013, but that's part of the resume, right?

"

Whether the Giants keep Pierre-Paul on a short- or long-term deal, they can still use another edge player. When they were winning Super Bowls, their strength was on the defensive line. Armstead is the kind of upside play who can develop in 2015 before having the reins taken off in two years. 

There's a legitimate possibility that Armstead's raw talent never emerges, making him a big bust, but that's the risk teams take in the battle of floor vs. ceiling. Picking in the top 10, you are always supposed to bet on the ceiling. 

No. 18: Devin Smith to the Chiefs

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

The surprise for Kansas City is not that Andy Reid is taking a wide receiver. How can he not after his current group went 16 games without catching a touchdown pass?

Alex Smith isn't completely blameless, because he seems inherently afraid to throw a ball outside the numbers or more than 10 yards, but Dwayne Bowe, Albert Wilson and Donnie Avery aren't exactly a group that will put up prolific numbers. 

Devin Smith, who was Ohio State's big-play threat in 2014 with 28.2 yards per catch and 12 touchdowns, seems like the right fit for the Chiefs. Bowe can remain a starter, and his powerful 6'2", 221-pound frame makes a perfect counter to Smith's speedy 6'1", 197-pound body. 

Terez A. Paylor of The Kansas City Star wrote recently that some scouts, like Alex Brown of Optimum Scouting, were enamored by Smith's ability to consistently make big plays.

“I think his ability to do that is definitely uncanny, and his tape throughout the year showed a lot better than he did at the Senior Bowl because he was getting more of those targets during the season,” said Brown. “That’s something that comes natural and is tough to develop.”

In his second mock draft on ESPN.com, Todd McShay actually has Smith going three spots higher to San Francisco.

McShay noted it seemed like a reach, because Smith is the No. 26 player on his board, but he pointed to the "excellent speed [and] subtle moves as a deep route-runner that allow him to create separation."

Kansas City's passing game may not be completely capable of utilizing all of Smith's talents, but it needs to find a weapon to stretch the field. Jamaal Charles is a great running back to have, but the Chiefs have to open things up if they want to compete for a playoff spot in 2015. 

No. 27: Todd Gurley to the Cowboys

Rainier Ehrhardt/Associated Press

Todd Gurley is the wild card of the 2015 draft. He seemed like an obvious candidate to break the two-year drought of not having a running back taken in the first round, but a torn ACL suffered in November seemed to squash that dream. 

Yet the deeper into the first round you look, the more teams are in search of a running back. There is a legitimate case that at least seven teams picking between 23 and 32 have a need at the position.

Baltimore and Dallas have the most obvious need as of today because Justin Forsett and DeMarco Murray are set to become free agents. In this scenario, the Ravens draft another first-round talent at the position in Melvin Gordon. 

That leaves the Cowboys as the great mystery. Jerry Jones has already said it will be hard for the team to retain both Murray and Dez Bryant, via Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News:

In the battle between the star running back and wide receiver, Jones seems to have made up his mind long ago, via Charean Williams of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

With a huge void to fill at running back, not to mention Jones' desire to generate headlines, how is Gurley not the pick? We are talking about an owner who was beating himself up because he didn't draft Johnny Manziel last year. 

Unlike Manziel, who plays a position the Cowboys didn't need filled, Gurley would be a nice option if Murray leaves. 

Dane Brugler of CBS Sports had Dallas taking Gurley in his most recent mock, noting the only way the team doesn't go with a defensive player is "if the trainers sign off" on the medicals for a talent like Georgia's star runner. 

There may not be an easy choice for the Cowboys with the 27th pick. It's certainly going to be dramatic, because everything with this franchise tends to be that way, but after seeing how important running the ball was last year, Gurley should be able to replace what Murray did as long as there are no issues during his rehab. 

Stats and measurables via Sports-Reference.com