10 College Football Teams Whose Schedules Best Set Up for Playoff Run
Lose early, win late. It's the formula that worked for Alabama, Ohio State and Oregon to get into the first College Football Playoff and provides a blueprint for how things might shake out in 2015.
Though the playoff selection committee noted that it took into account the entire body of work in choosing semifinalists, it's clear that playing your best down the stretch had a greater impact than anything else. It also helped to not have any of those pesky losses in the weeks immediately before the final rankings were released, something that derailed the playoff hopes of Mississippi State and others who slipped up late.
With schedules out for every team likely to vie for a playoff bid—sorry, Sun Belt schools—we can scan the slates to see which contenders have the right schedule makeup to make a run. This usually involves having a good balance of resume-building matchups spread throughout the schedule, making it possible to suffer a setback early on and still have the stamina to stay in the race.
Having the games be at home or away has a bearing on playoff chances as well, but it's not a deal breaker. Alabama, Ohio State and Oregon all won key road games along the way, and doing so is likely going to be necessary for this year's semifinalists.
Clemson
1 of 10
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 88-65
Spotlight games: Sept. 17 at Louisville, Oct. 3 vs. Notre Dame, Oct. 10 vs. Georgia Tech, Nov. 7 vs. Florida State, Nov. 28 at South Carolina
Why it's set up nicely
Clemson has been arguably the second-best team in the ACC the past three seasons, but by being stuck in the same division as Florida State, it's come down to whether the Tigers can beat the Seminoles to determine how far they go. So far, that hasn't worked in their favor, but this might be the year that changes.
With FSU going through its post-Jameis Winston transition, the opportunity is there to take control of the Atlantic Division and ride that to the playoffs. The Seminoles come to Death Valley this year, and it's later in the season than normal, negating any chance Clemson won't be up to speed for that matchup.
An early Thursday game at Louisville is the kind of loss that could put Clemson behind the eight ball early, but because the rest of the slate includes so many notable games—starting with a visit from Notre Dame—there are enough chances to make up for such a loss and make the final four.
Georgia
2 of 10
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 93-61
Spotlight games: Sept. 19 vs. South Carolina, Oct. 3 vs. Alabama, Oct. 10 at Tennessee, Oct. 17 vs. Missouri, Oct. 31 vs. Florida (in Jacksonville), Nov. 14 at Auburn, Nov. 28 at Georgia Tech
Why it's set up nicely
Just like last season, Georgia will have no shortage of opportunities to show it is worthy of making the playoffs. The key is whether the Bulldogs can avoid the hiccups they had spread throughout their 2014 campaign and navigate a challenging but also potentially rewarding schedule.
There's no big-name early nonconference opponent to boost things early, but that also means facing South Carolina won't come at a time when an emotional letdown is possible. The first month sets up perfectly to be prepared for a major SEC crossover game against Alabama, the start of a critical three-game stretch that also includes visiting Knoxville and getting two-time defending East Division champion Missouri in Athens.
If Georgia gets through that gauntlet with no more than one loss, it's in great shape...assuming it can win on the road in November.
Trips to Auburn and Georgia Tech—with a home game against scrappy Georgia Southern in between—makes the stretch run a great chance to rise up the rankings if the Bulldogs keep on winning.
Georgia Tech
3 of 10
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 96-60
Spotlight games: Sept. 19 at Notre Dame, Oct. 10 at Clemson, Oct. 24 vs. Florida State, Nov. 28 vs. Georgia
Why it's set up nicely
Georgia Tech seemed to come out of nowhere to make it into the Orange Bowl last season, the result of being on the far weaker side of the ACC and not playing any real high-profile games until the end of November and beyond. That won't be the case this year. Instead, if the Yellow Jackets are in the playoff hunt come December, they'll have more than earned it.
Besides landing on Notre Dame's schedule in the perfect year—and, by having that trip to South Bend come in Week 3, early enough to make a loss there not a resume-killer—Tech also draws the ACC's top teams from the Atlantic Division and thus will make the conference feel less imbalanced than in most seasons.
The season-ending clash with SEC rival Georgia could loom as a huge make-or-break game, too. Tech likely will have already had its division-title fate determined by then and could have a conference championship coming up a week after this, but being able to post a notable victory like that so close to the final rankings has great profile-boosting power.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Notre Dame
4 of 10
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 82-71
Spotlight games: Sept. 5 vs. Texas, Sept. 19 vs. Georgia Tech, Oct. 3 at Clemson, Oct. 17 vs. USC, Nov. 28 at Stanford
Why it's set up nicely
With Notre Dame, it's all about name recognition. The more you identify with the Fighting Irish's opponents, the better the general perception is that they have a chance to compete for a title as an independent.
That used to mean beating Michigan and Michigan State, among others, but now it means getting good matchups from the team's ACC affiliation. The first year of that plan drew the dream game against Florida State, which had it not sent Notre Dame on a downward spiral would have been the perfect game to springboard a championship run.
Clemson and Georgia Tech might not be as sexy of selections, but in the grand scheme of being playoff-worthy, they're the best Notre Dame could have hoped for from the ACC. Same with the annual tilts against Stanford and USC, both of whom should be at or near the top of the Pac-12 and provide great value.
But the game that might help Notre Dame's cause more than any is its opener.
"An in-transition Texas team kicks off the season in South Bend, a game that could establish Notre Dame as a playoff threat," wrote Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune.
Even if it's against a team that was 6-7 a year ago, Texas brings name recognition, which matters far more than opponent quality at that point in the season.
Ohio State
5 of 10
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 86-69
Spotlight games: Sept. 7 at Virginia Tech, Nov. 21 vs. Michigan State, Nov. 28 at Michigan
Why it's set up nicely
As we saw last season with Florida State, no game is considered a walkover when the opponents are treating a chance to knock off the defending champions as their own national title game. But the schedule Ohio State has on tap in 2015 just screams walkover once you get past the opener and before reaching the final stretch.
Despite facing nine opponents that played in bowls a year ago, after the nifty Labor Day opener at Virginia Tech—which will also have the revenge factor from 2014 working in the Buckeyes' favor— the next nine games are against either mid-majors or middling Big 12 teams. Mid-American Conference champion Northern Illinois is the only one in that stretch that won more than eight games.
The challenges don't come until the very end, when after hosting Michigan State, there's the trip to Ann Arbor to face Michigan. The first edition of the Urban Meyer-Jim Harbaugh rivalry will already be must-see television, but if Ohio State is unbeaten and on the cusp of another playoff bid, the attention of this game will increase exponentially.
OSU will be judged differently than other teams, as the defending champs, with wins picked apart more than those from the challengers. But this schedule is going to be hard to struggle with.
Oregon
6 of 10
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 83-71
Spotlight games: Sept. 12 at Michigan State, Sept. 26 vs. Utah, Oct. 29 at Arizona State, Nov. 14 at Stanford, Nov. 21 vs. USC
Why it's set up nicely
Last year's solid home win over Michigan State set the tone for Oregon's run to the national championship game, a victory so helpful it made the shocking loss to Arizona easier to look past. After that, it was mostly maintaining the status quo, with only minimal challenges down the stretch.
Not this year. In 2015, the Ducks have the kind of schedule that almost encourages an early loss, with that likely coming in the rematch against Michigan State in East Lansing. Beginning 1-1 at that point would in no way eliminate them from playoff consideration, not with the bevy of key Pac-12 games still to play.
Oregon is in the weaker side of the conference, but it plays four crossover games and is guaranteed to get at least three of the six strong teams in that division. The last of those matchups, against USC in late November, has all the makings of an early preview of the conference title game as well as a contest that can boost the winner into the top four (if it's not already ranked that high).
TCU
7 of 10
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 74-78
Spotlight games: Sept. 3 at Minnesota, Oct. 3 vs. Texas, Nov. 7 at Oklahoma State, Nov. 21 at Oklahoma, Nov. 27 vs. Baylor
Why it's set up nicely
There will be no late leapfrogging of TCU this season, not with the backloaded schedule the Horned Frogs were handed by the Big 12 schedule-makers.
While the thought of having to play at both Oklahoma schools in a three-week span, then finish with the toughest opponent (Baylor) on the slate just six days later seems cruel, considering how the conference got treated by the selection committee in 2014, it's the best possible scenario for the league to get a playoff team this time around.
TCU gets a good opening game to build off, playing on the road on a Thursday against a good Big Ten team. After that, it's pretty smooth sailing for nearly two months until November rolls around. That's when coach Gary Patterson will earn his money and have his team essentially dictate whether the Big 12 gets invited to the playoff party this time or gets shut out again.
Because the conference doesn't have a title game, a major red mark last year, having Baylor and TCU play a de facto championship the day after Thanksgiving works out perfectly. Rather than wedged in the middle of the schedule, and thus easier to forget, having this game be right at the end keeps the result fresh in the minds of those voting on playoff participants.
Tennessee
8 of 10
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 89-65
Spotlight games: Sept. 12 vs. Oklahoma, Sept. 26 at Florida, Oct. 3 vs. Arkansas, Oct. 10 vs. Georgia, Oct. 24 at Alabama, Nov. 21 at Missouri
Why it's set up nicely
From ground floor to penthouse in one season? If you believe the hype Tennessee has been picking up since the end of last season, it's quite possible, and the Volunteers' schedule provides plenty of help.
The key, though, is being able to take advantage of the many opportunities to post big wins and boost those playoff hopes.
The visit from Oklahoma, despite the Sooners' underachieving 2014 performance, would put Tennessee on the right track early on. Then it's a matter of being able to end long droughts against Florida (last won in 2004), Georgia (2009) and Alabama (2006). The Vols lost those games by a combined 18 points last year, but with their upward momentum, they could be this year's Mississippi State or Ole Miss if they can vanquish some lingering demons.
The late trip to Missouri also provides a great chance to bump that profile, as that game could end up determining the SEC East Division.
Tennessee might still be a year away from truly being a playoff contender, but it has a semifinalist-worthy schedule to test itself against.
Texas A&M
9 of 10
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 93-61
Spotlight games: Sept. 5 vs. Arizona State (in Houston), Sept. 26 vs. Arkansas (in Arlington, Texas), Oct. 17 vs. Alabama, Oct. 24 at Ole Miss, Nov. 7 vs. Auburn, Nov. 28 at LSU
Why it's set up nicely
The key to whether Texas A&M can make a run at the playoffs this season ultimately lies in how its defense fares. New coordinator John Chavis comes from LSU with a strong resume, and he's got talent to work with, but whether he can turn things around and have that unit match what the Aggies do on offense remains to be seen.
"All [coach Kevin] Sumlin has to do is press the right buttons and A&M will take the next step," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote.
And with a schedule that is very conducive to allowing a team to emerge from the pack in the SEC and be a postseason entrant, A&M has everything lined up to make this happen. It's sort of a combination of what Georgia and Mississippi State had to deal with last year, blending Georgia's early and late challenges with MSU's run of big games at home in the middle.
A&M doesn't leave the state of Texas until Week 8, and because of neutral-site games against Arizona State and Arkansas, it only heads outside of familiar territory three times. Instead, it's Alabama and Auburn coming to Kyle Field, with the toughest road test not coming until the finale at LSU.
By that point, if the Aggies have put together a strong enough season, possibly even an unbeaten one, a loss in Baton Rouge wouldn't result in as serious a profile hit as you'd expect.
USC
10 of 10
Opponents' combined 2014 record: 91-66
Spotlight games: Sept. 19 vs. Stanford, Sept. 26 at Arizona State, Oct. 17 at Notre Dame, Oct. 24 vs. Utah, Nov. 7 vs. Arizona, Nov. 21 at Oregon, Nov. 28 vs. UCLA
Why it's set up nicely
The SEC isn't the only league where the best teams can schedule lightly in nonconference play and not have it hurt them. The Pac-12 has become such a strong and deep conference that coming out as the champion is almost enough to ensure a playoff spot, assuming the victor isn't heavy on losses.
That's why USC can get away with opening against Sun Belt foes Arkansas State and Idaho without fear of strength-of-schedule liability, because once league play begins, there are few extended breaks.
The Trojans' slate has a bit of a playoff feel to it in that there are three times where they play back-to-back weeks against top opponents. If they show they can knock off both in the span of eights days, their reputation will go through the roof.
USC's schedule is also heavily backloaded, so that if it were to (for example) lose at Arizona State in late September, there are no shortages of games that can help the selection committee forget such a defeat.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
