College Football's Most Predictable Coaches
Considering the subject, you can probably guess where this story is going. Surprises aren't a big part of the repertoire of these coaches.
College football has become such a complex sport that some teams have playbooks rivaling a Stephen King novel in terms of thickness. Yet for as many never-the-same-play-twice coaches that are out there, there's also a faction that seems to run out the same formations and calls on every snap. Either that or they have a way of managing a game that sends armchair quarterbacks into fits of rage, feeling they could do a better job from the sports bar.
Variety is the spice of life, but familiarity is their go-to ingredient.
Every college coach has a certain level of predictability to them—they didn't get to this point in their careers without some form of a proven system—but these guys take it to the extreme.
Mike Bobo
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Mike Bobo was able to parlay the production his Georgia offenses had into his first head-coaching gig. Will he also carry on his reputation for inevitably going against his team's strengths in key situations at Colorado State?
Bobo had arguably the deepest and most talented running back group at his disposal in 2014, a unit that didn't skip a beat when star Todd Gurley was first suspended and then lost for the season with a knee injury. Yet in many cases, when the luxury of being able to hand the ball off to one of these backs and almost guarantee a few yards was available, the Bulldogs' offensive coordinator ended up calling for a pass.
At other times, when taking a shot down the field through the air seemed sensible, the play-calling became very run-heavy.
"We tend to defend Georgia's offensive coordinator, but going empty backfield on 3rd-and-short with the country's best group of running backs...well, we can't help you out here, Coach," Jason Kirk of SB Nation wrote during the course of a 38-35 Georgia loss at South Carolina in September that featured some textbook Bobo run/pass reversals.
With 1st-and-goal at the Gamecocks' 4-yard line and just over five minutes left, the situation just screamed run play. Gurley had already run for 128 yards on 19 carries, yet on first down Bobo had quarterback Hutson Mason throw it.
Mason ended up getting called for intentional grounding, pushing the ball back to the 14-yard line. Naturally, then, Bobo called for a run instead of trying to throw again.
Georgia ended up missing a game-tying field goal.
Todd Graham
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The only thing about Todd Graham that is more predictable than his defensive play-calling is his choice of communication gear. The Arizona State coach loves to rock the concert-style headset on the sidelines, and more often than not, when the Sun Devils are on defense he's using it to call for a blitz.
Graham's ASU teams have recorded 132 sacks over his three seasons, ranking in the top 15 nationally each year. This past season, the Devils' 39 sacks were heavily influenced by frequent blitz calls, turning loose linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties in hopes of rattling the quarterback and making up for an inexperienced defensive line.
"With all the analysis and research that I have done it is just too hard to defend all the things you are going to see and all diversity of schemes from week-to-week," Graham told reporters during a November press conference, per Ryan Bafaloukos of SBNation. "It is much more efficient to attack. The key is to attack with minimal risk."
This sometimes led to giving up some big plays, such as in losses to UCLA and Oregon State, but usually ended up with positive results. Regardless, Graham kept calling for blitzes, and there's no indication he's going to change this approach.
Kirk Ferentz
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Kirk Ferentz is tied with Oklahoma's Bob Stoops as the second-longest tenured coach in FBS, entering his 17th season at Iowa. In an era of quick-trigger firings, he's managed to survive this long with a consistent and dependable approach that all but guarantees a winning record each season.
Just not much more than that.
Ferentz's 2014 Hawkeyes went 7-6, their fifth straight season with eight or fewer victories. Only one of those seasons ended with a losing record, but none of them even had Iowa coming close to being considered one of the top teams in the country.
Iowa went 11-2 in 2009, but otherwise have hovered between four and nine wins every other season since 2005. And not surprisingly, its offensive production has been middle-of-the-road, ranking no better than 52nd in total offense any year since 2008.
Just as Iowa's black-and-gold uniforms have undergone very few changes during Ferentz's tenure, so too has his approach to the job. Despite being one of the highest-paid coaches in the game, he's shown very little desire to step outside his comfort zone.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Paul Johnson
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Paul Johnson has won everywhere that he's been a head coach, first at Georgia Southern and then Navy before his current gig with Georgia Tech. And despite the college game continuing to advance and develop new offensive wrinkles, Johnson has stuck to his tried-and-true system.
"Johnson's triple-option offense is as basic and smooth as his personality," wrote Susan Miller Degnan of the Miami Herald, prior to the Yellow Jackets' dominant Orange Bowl win over Mississippi State in which they ran for 452 yards.
Georgia Tech will pass, but not very often. Last year it threw the ball 203 times, fewer than all but four FBS teams. All of them, not surprisingly, also run a version of the option.
On the opposite end, Tech ran it 790 times last season. That was second-most in the country, and resulted in 4,789 yards and 47 touchdowns.
Johnson isn't completely predictable, though, because of the nature of the triple option. With quarterback Justin Thomas able to keep, pitch or hand off to a variety of backs, there's at least some mystery as to which run play Johnson will call.
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/college/orange-bowl/article5189733.html#storylink=cpy
Lane Kiffin
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It's hard to argue that Lane Kiffin's addition to the Alabama coaching staff didn't have a major impact on the Crimson Tide reaching the playoffs and having one of the top offenses in the country. But the former Tennessee and USC coach's first season as offensive coordinator also included several instances when his tendency for trying to be the smartest guy in the room got the better of him.
Just as Kiffin was able to predict a long touchdown catch before the ball was even thrown on two different occasions last season, pundits and critics were often able to project when he would decide to go against his offensive strengths just for the sake of being different.
A fondness for trying to screen defenses to death popped up several times in 2014-15, including in the Sugar Bowl semifinal against Ohio State. Rather than try to go deep to Heisman finalist and record-setter Amari Cooper, or run the ball in an effort to eat the clock and churn up yards thanks to the dependable running of Derrick Henry, Kiffin seemed to want to try and be as unpredictable as possible.
But because he's done that so often during his coaching career, it actually became quite easy to predict.
"Saban brought him to Tuscaloosa to get the ball to Alabama's best playmakers, and Cooper and Henry wound up on the outside when it mattered," wrote Mark Edwards of the Montgomery Advertiser.
Mike Leach
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Mike Leach would throw the pre-game coin toss if he could.
Washington State's eccentric coach has established the Cougars as the most pass-happy team in the country over the past three years, leading the nation in attempts each season. It's the same thing he did for a decade at Texas Tech, where in five of those seasons he had a quarterback lead FBS in passing yards.
Connor Halliday was on his way to demolishing the single-season passing mark before he broke his leg in early November; then backup Luke Falk threw for more yards (1,773) in three-plus games than six teams had all season.
Leach's interests off the field may be diverse—he's a lover of pirates, among other things—but his play-calling is far from that. Last season he never ran more than 26 times in a single game, and about three of those runs per game were the result of sacks.
Les Miles
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There's always an exception that proves the rule, and in this case it's LSU coach Les Miles.
Miles has one of the more schizophrenic coaching styles in that he can pull out some of the greatest trick plays in the game—he's not known as the Mad Hatter for nothing—yet also manage to have some of the worst clock management skills.
Since taking over the Tigers' program in 2005, Miles has developed a reputation as a quirky play-caller who likes to take major risks (as well as eat grass and come up with some great quips in press conferences) but who somehow finds a way to mess up the final seconds of a half or a game far too often. It's to the point where when such a gaffe happens in another game, not just college football but in the NFL and even other sports, jokes are made in reference to Miles having been involved in the clock management.
It's very surprising to see a coach that is so out-of-the-box in so many ways become so predictable when it comes to late-half and late-game situations. The play calls might not be easy to guess ahead of time, but how Miles manages those final seconds is.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
