Brewers Make Some Moves

The Milwaukee Brewers today fired their pitching coach, designated 3Bman and former star Bill Hall for assignment, sent shortstop J. J. Hardy to the minors and called up shortstop Alcides Escobar from AAA Nashville.

Hall hit 35 homeruns in 2006, but his performance has fallen off sharply each year since then, and at only age 29, it had reached a point where he was taking up valuable roster space.  Hall hit .225 with a .689 OPS last year, and this year his average was down to .201 and his OPS .606.

Hall will almost certainly clear waivers and then be released after refusing a minor league assignment.  He’s guaranteed $8.4 million for 2010, so it’s almost certain that once he’s released another team will sign him for the MLB minimum to see if he’s got anything left.

I, for one, don’t know how Hall got so old so fast.  He’s always been a free swinger who strikes out a lot, but he’s not a guy with so little plate discipline that you can simply chalk it up to the pitchers no longer throwing him strikes.

One thing is for certain, though.  After his big year in 2006, the NL’s pitchers figured out how to pitch him, and he’s never made the necessary counter-adjustments.  It’s a shame because he once looked like he’d be a big star.

The Brewers gave up on him because they have 24 year old Mat Gamel ready to take over the hot corner and also 26 year old Casey McGehee, who has hit extremely well for the Brute Crew this year.

Gamel looks to be pretty good and ready to play in the majors after a great year at AA Huntsville in 2008 and good numbers in limited playing time at AAA Nashville before being called up this year.  He’s only hitting .239 in 113 major league ABs so far, but he has a solid .743 OPS.

McGehee is hitting .305 with an .866 OPS in about 200 ABs this year for the Brewers, but this performance is almost certainly a fluke.  He had a .774 OPS at AAA Iowa last year and a .776 OPS in AA in 2005, his best minor league numbers in recent years.  My expectation is that he’ll be out of the major leagues for good before he reaches age 30.

The Brewers are high on 22 year old Venezualan SS Alcides Escobar, and he does look good as a long-term prospect.  However, I don’t think he’s a major league hitter yet.

Escobar hit .328 at AA Huntsville in the Southern League last year and is hitting .298 at AAA Nashville in the PCL this year.  However, his OPS numbers are .797 and .762 for the two seasons.

A player with a .762 OPS in the Pacific Coast League is not a major league hitter yet, even at shortstop.  My guess is that Escobar really needs another season at Nashville before he’ll really be ready for the Show.

The AP article I read on the move suggests that the Brewers may try Escobar as their lead-off hitter, since he has great speed (42 stolen bases in 52 attempts at AAA Nashville this year).  This would be a huge mistake for the Brewers.

Even if Escobar is one day a .300+ hitter in the majors, he’s unlikely ever to be a good top-of-the-order hitter, because he does not draws walks.  He has walked 32 times in 430 AAA at-bats this year, after walking 31 times in 546 AA at-bats last year.  Those numbers are his minor league career highs.

Nothing destroys an offense’s ability to maximize run production like a speedy lead-off man with an OBP below .340.

A great example of that fact this year is the Reds’ decision to make Willy Taveras their lead-off man.  The Reds have batted him first or second most of the season and have scored fewer runs than any team in the NL except the Padres, another bad team playing in the worst hitters’ park in baseball.  The Reds’ offense has a lot of other problems, but leading off Willy Taveras sure doesn’t help.

I am also surprised the Brewers would send down J. J. Hardy, even though he’s not playing well this year and the Brewers want to see what Escobar can do.  Hardy is only 26, and his .667 OPS is not terrible for a shortstop who plays above-average defense.

Given how well Hardy hit in 2007 and 2008, it doesn’t make sense to send him down part of the way through one bad season.  If Escobar hits more right off the bat than I expect and seizes the Brewers’ shortstop job permanently going into 2010, then it would present a great opportunity for another team to acquire Hardy while his trade value is as low as it’s been at any time in his career so far.