How New England Patriots Can Win 2015 NFL Free Agency
For the New England Patriots' players and fans, the upcoming months are a time to savor. On the heels of an era-validating Super Bowl win, it feels as though whatever happens the rest of the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era is simply gravy.
Of course, the Pats didn't become one of NFL history's most statistically impressive dynasties by resting on their laurels, and the front office has already begun offseason preparations. In reality, the construction of the 2015 Patriots has been underway for weeks, with events such as the Senior Bowl and East-West Shrine collegiate games serving as scouting hubs for the draft.
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We'll have plenty of months to discuss the draft ad nauseam, but the more immediate offseason priority is free agency. Like most elite teams, the Pats' free-agency approach figures to revolve around retention, especially with several rookie contracts expiring over the next two years.
Thus, assuming that the Patriots are budgeting extension money for the likes of Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower and Chandler Jones, we can expect more of a value-based approach to the silly season. With its primary core in place, the Pats are merely seeking to sustain the championship level they established in 2014. Here's a look at how New England can position itself to take the first step towards a repeat.
Re-Sign Revis and McCourty
According to Spotrac.com, the Patriots secondary is scheduled to account for a cumulative cap hit of a whopping $41.8 million in 2015, nearly $13 million more than the next most expensive secondary in the league. Much of that stems from Darrelle Revis' monstrous $25 million hit which is highly unlikely to actually be on the books, but if the Pats ink both Revis and Devin McCourty to extensions, they'll likely keep their perch atop the secondary spending list.
New England will happily foot that bill based on what the two All-Pros have brought to the defense. Based on Pro Football Focus' metrics, Revis graded out as the fourth-best cornerback in the league, while also allowing the third-fewest receptions at the position as measured on a per-coverage snap basis.
Revis has traditionally bet on himself with contracts carrying massive base salaries but mediocre signing bonuses, essentially leaving his status on a year-to-year basis. It's why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to cut him just one year into a six-year, $96 million deal and walk away with a palatable $3 million in dead money on their books (all of which stemmed from roster bonuses). When comparing that contract to the current deals for premier corners, it's clear that Revis' complete willingness to sacrifice guaranteed cash is an outlier:
| Revis' Old Deal (2013-18) | $96M | $0 | 0 % |
| Patrick Peterson (2016-20) | $70.1M | $47.4M | 67.6% |
| Joe Haden (2015-19) | $67.5M | $22.7M | 33.6% |
| Aqib Talib (2014-19) | $57M | $25.5M | 44.7% |
| Richard Sherman (2014-18) | $56M | $40M | 71.4% |
| Brandon Carr (2012-17) | $50.1M | $25.5M | 50.9% |
Approaching his age-30 season next year, it's unclear whether Revis will want more long-term security. He emphatically re-established himself as one of the best corners in the league this year and, apart from a torn ACL in 2012, has been remarkably durable his entire career. All the reports about his experience as a Patriot have been positive, and in the wake of the Super Bowl, Revis expressed a desire to stay in Foxborough:
If Revis continues his previous pattern of shunning big signing bonuses for larger base salaries, that would likely significantly improve his chances of sticking around in New England. The Patriots have been loath to commit big guarantees to veteran free agents, but it's hard to imagine that they wouldn't open their wallets for Revis if his contract provided the flexibility to bail after any year.
McCourty looks like a much more straightforward case. The converted cornerback has been a revelation as a deep-half free safety, ranking as PFF's top-graded safety in 2013 and eighth-best safety this year. McCourty has been explicit in his desire to stay with the Patriots, and even if the two sides don't hammer out a long-term extension, the franchise tag looms as a fail safe to keep him around in 2015.
Based on projections from CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora, the franchise-tag number for safeties this year projects at around $9.53 million, which would give McCourty the fourth-highest cap number of any safety next year. It's not hard to imagine McCourty taking a bit of a discount given his harmony with the organization, but we'll put this number as the highest-case scenario.
Let's also roughly estimate that Revis' cap hit ends up at around $15 million, which would be the highest number of any corner in the league. That would give New England's secondary a $41.3 million cumulative cap hit, almost exactly in line with the astronomical number presented at the beginning of this section, chewing up nearly 30 percent of the salary cap on one unit.
Is that worth the investment? The math could get tricky in later years when the aforementioned trio of Jones, Hightower and Collins need new deals as well. The most optimal route for the Patriots might be to front-load both contracts with guaranteed money, minimizing the cap hits in 2016 and beyond, when New England will need more flexibility to keep this defensive core together.
Buy Low on an NFC West Receiver
If the Pats can keep their secondary cornerstones, we can probably expect a relatively low-key free-agency approach. But Revis or McCourty leaving entirely would free up a lot of money, and with no likely replacements looming in free agency, it's conceivable that the Patriots could reallocate their resources elsewhere.
In that scenario, there are a pair of free-agent former Pro Bowl wide receivers who could see their rebounds value after some recent down seasons. Larry Fitzgerald has been linked to the Patriots for years now, though these rumors have largely been unsubstantiated. Fitzgerald possesses an unwieldy $23.6 million cap number for 2015, the fourth-highest in the league, and is highly unlikely to remain in Arizona at that number. Per Cardinals.com's Darren Urban, Zona president Michael Bidwell has expressed unwavering confidence in keeping the franchise icon:
"I know our fans are anxious and lot of media is out there talking, but I’d just say, ‘Everyone, relax a little bit.’ We’ll get this worked out. I feel good about it. My goal from the beginning was to have Larry Fitzgerald retire as a Cardinal when he is ready to retire many years from now. I am feeling confident something will get worked out.
"
Approaching his 32nd birthday, it's a total mystery at what kind of contract Fitzgerald will command. It's very hard to differentiate between receiver skills in a vacuum, since the position is so quarterback-dependent. Looking at some recent free-agent receivers that resembled Fitzgerald in age and production before hitting free agency, it would appear as though he's in line for a big pay cut:
| 2014 Larry Fitzgerald | 31 | 63 | 784 | ??? |
| 2010 Chad Johnson | 32 | 67 | 831 | 3 yrs, $11.9 M ($4.75 M) |
| 2009 Torry Holt | 32 | 64 | 796 | 4 yrs, $13 M ($4 M) |
| 2012 Malcom Floyd | 31 | 56 | 814 | 3 yrs, $11.5 M (5.25 M) |
Fans might notice how those names serve as fairly ominous harbingers for Fitzgerald's future. It's hard to flesh out how much of Fitzgerald's three-year statistical decline is due to the (mostly) subpar quarterback surrounding him in that span, but it seems indisputable that he wouldn't be more than the third or fourth option if he came to New England, albeit one with off-the-charts intangibles.
On the other hand, Michael Crabtree was once a rising No. 1 receiver with the San Francisco 49ers. The 27-year-old Crabtree would be a clearly more expensive option than Fitzgerald, but with just 982 yards over the past two seasons after an Achilles' tear in the 2012 offseason, it's eminently possible that he could settle for a one-year deal to re-establish his value on the market next year.
In that event, the Pats could be a logical destination for Crabtree. Unlike Brandon LaFell, also a traditional split end, Crabtree does much of his best work over the middle of the field. Even as the Niners passing game floundered for long stretches in 2014, Crabtree posted a whopping 120.9 quarterback rating on passes over the middle last year.
San Francisco isn't in bad cap shape at the receiver position, and given that much of their corps is over 30 (Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, Brandon Lloyd), it would make sense to make Crabtree a foundational part of Colin Kaepernick's supporting cast. But given the new San Francisco coaching regime and an inability to recapture his pre-injury form, don't be surprised if Crabtree looks for a fresh start, opening the door for a team like New England to swoop in.
Figure Out Wilfork and Amendola Contracts
Even approaching his 33rd birthday, Vince Wilfork remains an absolutely indispensable part of the Patriots on- and off-field core. A year removed from a debilitating Achilles tear, the mammoth defensive tackle remarkably played 73.3 percent of the defensive snaps (playoffs included), in line with the heavy workload he bore from 2010-12.
The production was also largely present, as Wilfork's plus-10.4 overall grade ranked 13th at the position, while his 8.5 percent run-stop percentage ranked ninth. Those metrics would suggest that his $8.9 million 2015 cap hit, the fifth-highest among defensive tackles, is actually well worth the investment. Check out this illustration of the top 10 most expensive defensive tackles next season to their 2014 PFF grades:
| Haloti Ngata (BAL) | $16 M | +23.1 |
| Gerald McCoy (TB) | $14.9 M | +29.7 |
| Henry Melton (DAL) | $9.2 M | +11.5 |
| Geno Atkins (CIN) | $9 M | +11.6 |
| Vince Wilfork (NE) | $8.9 M | +10.4 |
| Marcell Dareus (BUF) | $8.1 M | +25.6 |
| Barry Cofield (WSH) | $7.7 M | -9.2 |
| Art Jones (IND) | $7.1 M | -10.2 |
| Kendall Langford (STL) | $7 M | +0.4 |
| Kyle Williams (BUF) | $6.4 M | +20.2 |
But the Pats have never paid for past performance, and there's probably a large inherent risk in terms of a sudden decline with Wilfork, given his weight and age. Wilfork's past contract negotiations with the Patriots have been notoriously ornery, and many forget that he appeared long gone just last offseason. It's not pretty to imagine how he might handle a paycut proposal after turning in a remarkable rebound season.
No one can replace Wilfork's role as the locker room sage, which is why I suspect the Pats will find a way to keep him around. But it's worth noting that New England possesses some personnel leverage this year, a luxury they didn't hold last offseason as they pleaded with Wilfork to stay. Sealver Siliga missed time on short-term injured reserve, but posted an eye-popping 12.1 percent run stop percentage this year, second-best among qualified defensive tackles.
Coupled with a deep defensive tackle class in the 2015 draft, the Pats likely wouldn't be lost without Wilfork in the middle. New England will probably try to stomach his contract for 2015—his cap hit drops to a manageable $6.4 million in 2016, the last year of his deal— but if cash gets tight, Wilfork and Jerod Mayo are the most logical renegotiation candidates.
Conversely, Danny Amendola looks like more of a keep-or-cut proposition. That Amendola's roster status is in doubt would have been unfathomable a month ago, when he was concluding the end of his most disappointing pro season.
Amendola still finished with statistical career-lows, but from Week 16 on, he carved out a role as the Patriots shifted away from "12" personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB) to an "11" personnel base (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB). Over the last five games, Amendola posted 38 catches on 58 targets for 337 yards and four touchdowns. Pro-rated to 16 games, that would have resulted in 121 catches for 1,078 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Those absurd numbers are obviously an overstatement of what Amendola can accomplish as the No. 3 receiver in this offense, but they do illustrate his undeniable chemistry with Tom Brady. Amendola also factors in as insurance for Julian Edelman, who has a fairly spotty injury history, something that has several voices clamoring for the Patriots to keep him in 2015:
Indeed, the contract that has garnered so much ire in New England might actually save Amendola's roster status. It's not particularly efficient to cut Amendola, for while the Pats would save $2.1 million on the 2015 cap, they'd still be paying him $3.6 million to go away. If New England subsequently signs a veteran replacement, most of those savings would dry up anyways. A quick breakdown suggests that it's probably better to keep Amendola for at least one more season:
| 2015 Hit | $5,700,000 | $3,600,00 | $1,200,000 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2016 Hit | $6,700,000 | -- | $2,400,000 | $6,700,000 | $2,400,000 | $1,200,000 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2017 Hit | $7,700,000 | -- | -- | $7,700,000 | -- | $1,200,000 | $7,700,000 | $1,200,000 | $1,200,000 |
The Patriots have had well-documented difficulty in developing young receivers, and the lack of depth at the position behind Edelman and LaFell makes this a more important decision than many might realize. If New England moves on from Amendola, that probably means a shift back to "12" personnel and a larger investment in Tim Wright, who showed flashes of promise despite having no offseason to learn the system.
It's hard to have any faith in someone like Aaron Dobson or Josh Boyce, so what the Pats do with Amendola could foreshadow their philosophical personnel approach in 2015. Ultimately, though, Patriot Nation should not fret too much this offseason. New England has the core to contend for a repeat, and the moves this spring will simply fine-tune an already excellent roster.
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus, and all salary info via Spotrac.
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