Race for Final Eastern Conference Playoff Seeds Is Tragic Comedy Again
To say things are heating up within the NBA Eastern Conference's middle class would be a grossly spastic misinterpretation of what's happening as the playoff bracket begins to take shape. Saying this, you see, implies the East actually has a subset of mediocre squads impressively vying for postseason positioning.
It doesn't.
The spectacular chase for the East's final two playoff slots isn't so much a hot-footed pursuit as it is a writhing crawl. And it isn't so much spectacular as it is breathtakingly bad.
Only the Milwaukee Bucks have a case to fall in between the good and the awful. The East has its purported contenders in the Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards and Chicago Bulls, and then there's a 60-mile chasm and, finally, there's everyone else.
Here's what everyone else looks like.
The "Out of Conversation" Basement-Dwellers
There are really only three teams that can be considered out of the East's playoff running: the Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks.
Both the Sixers and Knicks are more than 10 games outside the playoff picture. To be frank, both also aren't actively trying to win games. With the losses piling up, they would rather contend with the Minnesota Timberwolves for the league's worst record and a 25 percent chance at drafting Jahlil Okafor.
Stocked with plenty of young talent, the Magic really shouldn't be in this subspace, breaking bread with brazen tank jobs. They have an electric backcourt with Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton, a pair of volume scorers in Evan Fournier and Tobias Harris, and an All-Star snub in Nikola Vucevic.
Given the current climate of the Eastern Conference—crazy cold, with a 150 percent chance of pouring awfulness—that core should be enough to flirt with a playoff spot. But the Magic have underachieved. They are 7.5 games outside the playoffs, rank in the bottom six of offensive and defensive efficiency and have no identity.
Things have remained so underwhelming that Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski says it's only a matter of time before head coach Jacque Vaughn receives the ax.
No matter, though. Every conference has its disasterpieces. The West has the Los Angeles Lakers and Timberwolves, and the Sacramento Kings defense. The East has these guys.
The "We're Not Sure How We Got Here" Accidents
Boston Celtics
After undergoing a thorough roster demolition, the Boston Celtics should be setting up shop with the aforesaid basement-dwellers.
President Danny Ainge began his roster-razing ahead of last season, shipping out Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry for picks and contract fodder. Diving deeper into Boston's rebuild, he unloaded Jeff Green and Rajon Rondo this season. He even flipped Brandan Wright and Jameer Nelson, two incoming impact players who could have helped add victories.
Instead of fading into the night by design, the Celtics are, inadvertently, within striking distance of a postseason spot. Just four games separate them and the eighth-place Charlotte Hornets.
Mike Prada of SB Nation puts this in proper perspective:
Never mind that the Celtics rank 23rd in points scored per 100 possessions and now lack a featured scorer. Forget about Ainge arming himself with more future first-round picks than the Timberwolves have wins. The Celtics, an obviously rebuilding team that remains ill-equipped to compete in the postseason, are suddenly thinking about said postseason.
"I would hope so," Stevens said when asked about whether the Celtics are chasing a playoff berth, per MassLive.com's Jay King. "You're competitive. You play this game. You grow up playing this game. That's a great thing for them to be talking about right now. I think it's awesome."
Call this a happy accident—one that contributes to the absurdity of the East's fringe playoff picture.
Indiana Pacers
Paul George is done for the season. Lance Stephenson is long gone. Chris Copeland, instant offensive extraordinaire, has fallen out of the rotation. The Indiana Pacers' leading scorer, George Hill, is averaging just 13.6 points and has appeared in 10 games. Only the Sixers offense scores fewer points per 100 possessions.
Oh! Can't forget this: At 15 games under .500, Indiana is also on course for the worst franchise winning percentage in 26 years.
So, naturally, these Pacers are just 4.5 games back of the East's final playoff spot.
To their credit, the Pacers still play defense. They're not the top-rated offense-slaughterers they were last season, but they're 11th in efficiency. Still, much like the Celtics, this is a talent-fallow team that shouldn't be thinking about the playoffs.
And yet, here the Pacers are, intentionally playing hard, accidentally contending for the right to a first-round exit.
The "What the Heck Is Going on Here?" Contenders
Miami Heat
No, Dwyane Wade cannot pull off the below shoes:
Yes, the Miami Heat are stuck in the middle of nowhere.
Pat Riley's post-LeBron James recovery looked good over the summer. The Heat retained Chris Bosh and Wade, signed Luol Deng and marched into 2014-15 with the potential to contend for a top-five playoff spot.
Those expectations have proved ambitious thus far. Pretty much everyone on the Heat has underachieved—except for Hassan Whiteside(!) and Wade, provided he's healthy. Only, Wade is never healthy. He's nursing a hamstring injury at the moment, and according to Wade himself, the prognosis isn't good. Per the Miami Herald's Joseph Goodman:
Josh McRoberts is already out for the season, and Deng has been touch-and-go while tending to a sore calf. Accommodating this banged-up roster has been predictably difficult. Bosh is being paid like a superstar to headline a sub-.500 contingent, and the Heat's defense has been a statistical atrocity when Whiteside steps off the floor.
Fortunately for the Heat, they're not in imminent danger of being displaced from the East's playoff bubble. After the Hornets, the nearest postseason hopeful is two games back.
But one has to wonder: What's the point of all this?
The Heat rank 20th in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency. They're just 4-8 against the East's Top Six teams. Making the playoffs wouldn't accomplish anything. Even at full strength, they're built for only one thing: to be a steppingstone for those few Eastern Conference teams actually chasing something meaningful.
Brooklyn Nets
Anyone who tells you they know what the Brooklyn Nets are doing is lying.
Although the Nets roster reflects that of a playoff team, they are not a playoff team. Not right now. They are 19-28 and have lost their grip on the East's final playoff spot.
Injuries to Deron Williams, Mirza Teletovic and Brook Lopez have indeed complicated the team's standing. Fielding a half-hobbled Joe Johnson hasn't helped the Nets' 24th-ranked offense one bit.
Brooklyn is basically a nightmare on both ends of the floor. Lionel Hollins' minions have lost four of five and posted a sorry 3-13 record against Eastern Conference playoff teams.
Rumors of a fire sale, meanwhile, continue to run rampant. The Nets have an on-again, off-again relationship with the idea of selling off their pricey Big Three (Lopez, Williams and Johnson). Most recently, they turned down the Denver Nuggets' offer for Lopez, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
Now, the Nets don't own the rights to their own first-round pick until 2019. Turning down any deal that gives them short-term contracts and one such pick makes little sense. Yet, in a weird, twisted way, it also makes plenty of sense.
"With their 18th straight victory, the Atlanta Hawks now have the best record in the NBA at 39-8," wrote The Brooklyn Game's Devin Kharpertian. "The Nets and Hawks will swap picks in the upcoming NBA draft. If the season ended today, the Nets would trade a lottery pick for the last pick of the first round."
Swapping a mid-level, post-lottery pick would feel loads better than sending the league's best team a top-14—or worse, top-10—selection. But the playoffs may be out of reach even if the Nets hang on to their overpriced foundation. Failing to procure another first-rounder amid an unavoidable downturn would be catastrophic.
Regardless of what the Nets decide—go through with the fire sale or compete for a playoff spot—they must decide soon, ahead of the Feb. 19 trade deadline. Whatever they actually decide, though, won't make them any less of a failure.
Title contention is out of the question. Seventh or eighth place is their ceiling. A first-round exit would be the extent of their success. This expensive, tax-trodden experiment has failed, leaving the Nets to waste away in the heart of a so-sad-it's-funny playoff race, instead of existing above it.
The "Hey! At Least We're Definitely Trying to Win" Hopefuls
Charlotte Hornets
It wasn't supposed to be like this for the Hornets.
Adding Lance Stephenson meant an anemic offense would fix itself and a stingy defense would remain intact. This season was supposed to include visions of joining the East's upper-echelon group of contenders. Nowhere in those visions was there the prospect of them missing the playoffs entirely.
Welp.
While the Hornets have rebounded after an astonishingly atrocious start, their hold on eighth place is just 1.5 games. Increasing that lead dictates that they survive without Kemba Walker, their leading scorer, who will be out for the next five weeks with a torn lateral meniscus in his left knee, according to Wojnarowski.
If there's a silver lining to any of this, it's that their defense ranks first in points allowed per 100 possessions over the last 14 games, during which time the Hornets are 11-3. It's this resurgence that has them working the phones, trying to improve the roster both in the interim and long term.
Wojnarowski has them exploring "trade avenues" to replace some of Walker's production at point guard. He's even linked them to a Johnson trade with Brooklyn, citing a scenario that would rid them of Stephenson's contract in the process.
But reality has already set in. The Hornets are not title contenders. They are not even fringe contenders. The No. 6 seed is already out of reach (five games), and there is no conceivable scenario in which the Hornets, healthy or not, unseat the Hawks, Cavaliers, Bulls, Wizards or Raptors over the course of a seven-game series.
Like everyone else on this list, these Hornets are merely trying to prolong inevitable disappointment.
Detroit Pistons
Stan Van Gundy cannot catch a break.
First, he inherits a fantastically flawed Detroit Pistons roster that won just 29 game last season. Then, he loses his prized free-agent acquisition to injury (Jodie Meeks) and watches as the Pistons stumble through their first 28 games, winning a pitiful five.
Realizing there was no trade market for Josh Smith, Van Gundy was forced to waive him—a costly decision that yielded magnificent results. But just when life started to get good, it went bad again.
Leading scorer Brandon Jennings will miss the rest of this season while rehabbing his left Achilles. It's a devastating loss when you consider all the Pistons accomplished between Smith's departure and Jennings' injury:
| With Smith | 17.9 | 97.6 | 28 | 105.8 | 24 | -8.2 | 28 |
| Post-Smith/Pre-Jennings Injury | 75.0 | 107.1 | 5 | 99.4 | 5 | 7.7 | 5 |
| Post-Jennings | 25.0 | 100.8 | 15 | 106.3 | 25 | -5.5 | 21 |
Nabbing a playoff berth is not totally impossible. Just improbable. Twelve games under .500, the Pistons are only 3 games outside the postseason party, trailing a fading Nets team and injury-afflicted Hornets squad. There is enough time left for them to stay the course—an unflattering course.
"The Pistons are caught between a high draft pick and playoff contention, a place they should have better avoided in the first place," explained Dan Feldman for the Detroit Free Press. "But here they are, and they can't exchange the hand they've dealt themselves for new cards now. With that understood, they should keep pushing—within reason—toward a postseason berth."
Similar aspirations were refreshing not two weeks ago. The Pistons were playing like a team that could inflict some damage upon better-built outfits once the playoffs rolled around. Now, they've regressed back to the East's directionless pack.
Not a single player out there will replace Jennings' production. The Pistons already announced they signed John Lucas III to a 10-day contract, and they've been loosely linked to Mo Williams, according to Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 in Minnesota. But the truth is, barring a trade-deadline miracle, their ability to do anything other than snag a worthless eighth-place finish vanished with Jennings.
They are just another below-board Eastern Conference team seeking a playoff seed that is more forsaken formality than substantive success.
Laugh, Don't Cry
Watching the East's bottom-most playoff seeds unfold can be painful.
Such ugly competition is yet another reminder that this is not the West, that the East does not play host to any dark horses. Instead, it's a conference overrun with teams chasing finishes they don't deserve, fighting for postseason appearances that mean nothing in the end.
Nonetheless, the Eastern Conference playoff race rages on, its bracket fluid and inexact, its continued development funny and sad, its fringe postseason hopefuls no more threatening than their loss-laden records suggest.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played Feb. 2, 2015, unless otherwise noted. Draft pick information via RealGM.
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