Mat Latos Has Been a Bit Lucky

This Article originally appeared on Friar Forecast

Since he was called up, Mat Latos has been fun to watch. He has won four games in five starts, and currently possesses a sparkly 2.43 RA. Plus he throws hard. 95 MPH hard.

The thing is, while Latos has the “stuff” to be a very good pitcher at some point, I am not sure he is there yet. Or at the very least, in an admittedly small sample of 30 innings, he has been somewhat lucky.

Latos has a FIP of 5.06. FIP, unlike ERA, is not fooled by a 0.176 BABIP, or a 100 percent strand rate (Latos’s marks).

Striking people out has not been a problem, as he has fanned nearly seven batters per nine innings.  Latos has walked a few more batters than I would like (2.73 BB/9), but his control has not been alarming. What has been an issue is the home runs. Latos has allowed 6 HR, at least one in each of his starts.

While FIP may not be fooled by an unsustainable BABIP or strand rate, it can be tricked by an unrealistic HR rate. This season, 14.3 percent of fly balls hit against Latos have gone for home runs.  If he qualified, that HR/FB ratio would rank seventh worst amongst the 101 pitchers with 100 or more innings pitched.

It is certainly possible that Latos is a pitcher who allows a lot of home runs per fly ball. But considering the small sample, and that Latos never had a HR problem in the minors, it is more likely that we can expect regression towards a mark that better reflects his true talent.

xFIP attempts to control for this exact shortcoming in FIP. By normalizing the HR rate, many argue that xFIP is actually a better predictor of future performance than FIP.  Latos’s xFIP on the season stands at 4.50. Not bad, but not nearly as shiny as his 2.43 RA.

Going forward, more balls that are put in play against Latos will go for hits. Likewise, his strand rate will not remain at 100 percent. But he is also unlikely to give up as many home runs.

In his 30 innings pitched, Latos has gotten a bit lucky, which is not to say he cannot be a true 2.43 RA (or more realistically a 3.50 ERA) pitcher in his next 30 innings. Let's just not get overly excited about that 4-1 record and nifty RA. It is too heavily influenced by good luck.