Despite Questions at RB, Vikings Unlikely to Take Gordon, Gurley Early in Draft

The future of the Minnesota Vikings at the running back position is entirely up in the air at this point. Top prospects like Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley may be tempting options to quickly shore up the backfield, but they are roads Minnesota is unlikely to go down.

Any prediction of a high pick at RB works on the assumption that Adrian Peterson will not return to Minnesota. If the star back returns, Minnesota’s need for RB help would go almost entirely out the window.

But even if Peterson never plays another down for the Vikings, spending a high pick on Gordon or Gurley would be a rash move.

Jerick McKinnon surprised quite pleasantly in his rookie season. Despite a smaller stature and relative inexperience as a traditional RB, he proved he could handle a significant workload after being ushered into the starting role.

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

With a year now under his belt, McKinnon will be expected to take another step forward in 2015. He showed a foundation on which Minnesota can build as a rookie, so build it will.

Any future plans at the RB position will undoubtedly include McKinnon. The big-play ability and strong initial development he showed a year ago dictates that. Minnesota should bank on giving McKinnon at least 10 carries a game in 2015 and beyond. That immediately lessens the team’s need for a bell-cow back who totes the ball 20 or more times consistently.

Theoretically, both Gordon and Gurley will be viewed as foundational backs who fit that mold. Other teams with a greater RB need should value each higher than Minnesota does.

On top of selecting Gordon or Gurley being unlikely, the Vikings spending a valuable pick on an RB simply seems unwise. As Brendan Leister of DraftBrowns.com points out, the 2015 class of RB prospects is uncommonly deep:

"

Really looks to be a strong RB class this year. There's a lot of guys who can play. RB depth will be stronger across the league in '15.

— Brendan Leister (@BrendanLeister) January 25, 2015"

Gordon and Gurley are the cream at the top, but the rest holds it own too.

Prospects such as Indiana’s Tevin Coleman, Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah, Miami’s Duke Johnson, Boise State’s Jay Ajayi, South Carolina’s Mike Davis, Alabama’s T.J. Yeldon, Auburn’s Cameron Artis-Payne, Minnesota’s David Cobb and Michigan State’s Jeremy Langford all figure to be drafted between the second and fourth rounds, which should be Minnesota’s sweet spot.

The bigger backs, ones that Minnesota should value higher, are also abundant and could be found in the third, fourth or fifth round realistically. Backs like Ajayi, Davis, Artis-Payne and Cobb all fit that description.

Vikings general manager Rick Spielman can mislead better than a politician in the lead-up to the draft, but he did acknowledge the depth of the class a couple of weeks ago, per Andrew Krammer of 1500 ESPN:

"

On a related note, Spielman: "It's a pretty good RB class this year, I think it's one of the better RB classes, depth wise, in a while."

— Andrew Krammer (@Andrew_Krammer) January 14, 2015"

Other NFL teams have frequently found contributing backs after the second round, which should only make that route more appealing for the Vikings.

A quick count of where the league’s best running backs were drafted tells an interesting story about the market for running backs and how it has changed over the past few years.

Year	1	2	3-4	5-7	UDFA
2011	9	5	3	1	2
2012	8	3	4	3	2
2013	8	5	3	2	2
2014	3	5	6	2	4

The three from 2014 who were picked in the first round—Marshawn Lynch, Jonathan Stewart and Mark Ingram—were all drafted before a league-wide adjustment was seemingly made in terms of valuing running backs. Success achieved recently by undrafted backs should also be accounted for, with Arian Foster carrying the torch.

A clear shift took place after Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and David Wilson were made first-round picks in 2012. In both the 2013 and 2014 drafts, no running backs went in the first. A drop in top-level talent contributed, but teams have started to adjust to the wide supply of talented backs that enter the league.

Gordon and Gurley could break through the wall and get into the first round, but a wealth of backs will be there for teams that wait it out. Patient teams have been rewarded at the RB position in the past two years.

All of these factors should weigh down any ideas Minnesota might have about spending a high pick at the position.

If Peterson’s days in purple and gold are over, the Vikings will go into May’s draft with a variety of options. Burning a first-round pick on either Gordon or Gurley should not, and likely will not, be one of them.

Statistics via ESPN.com.