Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo Clear Waivers

Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo apparently both cleared waivers and are available to be traded if the Reds can find any takers.  I like Harang more than Arroyo, but neither is a great bet, given their ages and their remaining contract obligations.  Harang is set to make another $18.5 million through the end of 2010 and Arroyo $16.5 million over the same period.

I can’t see the Reds moving either and getting anything in return unless they eat about three-quarters of their remaining salary obligations.

Harang was one of the NL’s best starters in 2006 and 2007, at ages 28 and 29, when he went a combined 32-17 with ERAs in the 3.7s, more than 200 Ks each year, and a roughly 4-to-1 Ks-to-BBs ratio.

Harang has actually pitched much better the last two years than his combined 12-30 record indicates.  Rumor out of Cincinnati has it that Harang hasn’t been the same since he threw 63 pitches in his only relief appearance of last year on May 25, 2008, when he pitched the third day after a start in a game the Reds ultimately lost after 18 innings.  He struck out nine in four innings pitched.

I’m not so sure I believe that that one outing did him in.  His drop-off in performance the last two years may just be the result of advancing age and bad luck. Also, from 2005 through 2007, he averaged 226 innings pitched a season, which is a lot to throw over a three-year period in this decade.  That extended workload may have had a bigger impact than any one single appearance.

One thing is for certain, however.  Harang is not a good bet at this point in his career to have another season like 2006 or 2007.

However, Harang has pitched well enough that he could be a .500 pitcher on a good team, so if a team in the hunt needs a fourth or fifth starter, he wouldn’t be a bad bet, assuming the Reds keep paying the vast majority of his remaining contract.

I could see the Brewers, in particular, being interested.  They are familiar with him playing in the same division, and with their offense, Harang could be another Branden Looper-type success story.  In fact, I’d definitely rather have Harang than Looper for the 2010 season.

Bronson Arroyo’s 10-11 record is considerably better than Harang’s, but with a 5.04 ERA, Arroyo really hasn’t pitched as well as Harang.  Five of Arroyo’s last six starts have been quality starts, so he may draw some interest, but again, only if the Reds eat most of his remaining contract.

I’d also rather have Harang than Arroyo in 2010.  Arroyo is a year older than Harang and his strikeout rate has dropped from roughly 7.0 per nine innings pitched from 2006 through 2008 to 5.1 per nine innings so far this year without a similar drop in his walks rate.  Definitely not a good sign.

If the Reds are looking to trade their two-top veteran starters, even with Edinson Volquez sidelined for at least a year after Tommy John surgery, it sure makes you wonder what the Reds were thinking trading prospects away for Scott Rolen, who by the way is back on the DL today with a concussion.