5 Mistakes the Denver Broncos Can't Afford to Make This Offseason
The Denver Broncos' 2014 season ended in disappointment. With the loss to the Indianapolis Colts in the divisional round of the playoffs, we've seen the Broncos completely overhaul the coaching staff at Dove Valley.
With the coaching changes in place, the Broncos need to turn their attention to finding the right talent to go along with the new offensive and defensive philosophies.
They’ll need to make a decision on their 13 unrestricted free agents while also considering other team's free agents. At the same time, they will have to consider which prospects could make the most sense for them in the draft.
Time is running out on the Peyton Manning era. If he decides to come back in 2015, the Broncos need to do everything they can to get back to—and win—the Super Bowl. This countdown only makes every decision they make even more critical.
Here are the five biggest mistakes the Broncos can’t make this offseason.
Let Virgil Green Go
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At this time, the Denver Broncos only have one tight end under contract (Dominique Jones) for the 2015 season. Julius Thomas, Virgil Green and Jacob Tamme are all set to be unrestricted free agents.
The most important tight end to keep around is arguably Green.
Denver is going to have a new-look offense under head coach Gary Kubiak and offensive coordinator Rick Dennison. This look will often feature two-tight end sets. In the Kubiak system, tight ends need to be able to stand out as blockers and receivers.
Green was arguably the best blocking tight end on the Broncos roster last year. He is an underrated receiver and could produce better numbers as a pass-catcher if given a larger opportunity.
The Broncos have developed Green into a fantastic all-purpose tight end after selecting him as a seventh-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft. His contract is unlikely to be much more than $10 million with an annual average salary around $2 million or less.
This decision is arguably the easiest one for the Broncos to make in free agency. Green is a good fit for the new scheme, and his price is quite team-friendly.
Don't Sign Demaryius Thomas to a Long-Term Deal
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Arguably the most important free agent the Broncos need to re-sign, wide receiver Demaryius Thomas is set for a huge payday.
The Broncos have the difficult task of deciphering Thomas' value both with and without Peyton Manning. With Manning, Thomas has produced huge numbers and become one of the best receivers in the game today. Without Manning, his numbers would fall—but exactly how much is anybody's guess.
When free agency opens in early March, the Broncos might have already placed the franchise tag on Thomas. This would give him a one-year guaranteed salary of approximately $12.7 million, according to Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com.
By placing the franchise tag on Thomas, the Broncos would then have until July 15 to work out a new long-term deal with their superstar receiver.
He might not get a $100 million contract like Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals) and Calvin Johnson (Detroit Lions) have, but Thomas is likely to make more than Mike Wallace (Miami Dolphins) or Percy Harvin (New York Jets).
An approximate number for Thomas is somewhere around a five-year, $75 million deal. This would give him an annual average salary of $15 million—a fair and reasonable price given his natural talent and ability.
With or without Manning, the Broncos need to put forth their best effort to re-sign Thomas.
Fail to Upgrade the Offensive Line
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The Broncos need to do everything they can to find the best group of offensive linemen possible.
Assuming Manning returns for another season, protecting him is priority No. 1 for the Broncos. Denver needs to keep pressure away from him to help ensure he stays healthy in 2015.
The offensive line wasn't up to the task in 2014, which is why the Broncos are searching for at least two new starters up front.
Right tackle Louis Vasquez needs to be moved back inside to his more natural position as a guard. He is a team-first guy, but his move to tackle didn't yield the results the Broncos needed. Vasquez is an All-Pro guard but was a below-average starter at tackle.
The team needs to find a right tackle though the draft or free agency.
Guys like Ereck Flowers (Miami) or Cameron Erving (Florida State) should be available when the Broncos pick near the end of the first round. In free agency, a player like Brian Bulaga (Green Bay Packers) might be a possibility for the Broncos.
Will Montgomery did a fine job when he eventually replaced Manny Ramirez at center. He will be an unrestricted free agent, but the Broncos might choose to re-sign him. Under Kubiak, the Broncos will implement a zone-blocking scheme. Montgomery is agile enough (and has plenty of experience in that system) to be a quality starter in that system.
Left guard is likely to be an open spot this offseason. Last year's starter, Orlando Franklin, is set to hit the open market. He was a right tackle for most of his career, but the Broncos needed him to move to guard last year.
Franklin made the switch, but he could be looking to move on in free agency. He never seemed comfortable at guard, and he might want to find a team that will give him a chance to start at tackle again.
In the draft, offensive guard A.J. Cann (South Carolina) should be on the board at the end of the first round—although it might be a bit of a stretch to select him there.
Currently, NFLDraftScout.com has Cann graded as the 47th-overall prospect with a second-round grade. In free agency, perhaps a veteran like Jeromey Clary (San Diego Chargers) could be an option for the Broncos.
The Broncos struggled to find the right mix on the offensive line in 2014. They need to make sure they get it right this season as they work to make another run at the Super Bowl.
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Bust on Their 1st-Round Pick
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Under general manager John Elway, the Broncos found a potential star in 2014 first-round pick Bradley Roby. His play as a nickel corner was strong each week this season, as he was tested early and often by opposing quarterbacks.
Roby's rookie season was a 180-degree turn from what we've seen 2013 first-round pick Sylvester Williams do in the first two years of his pro career. He might not be a bust yet, but 2015 is certainly a make-or-break year for Williams.
The Broncos have the 28th-overall selection this year, and they need to draft an impact player who can come in and contribute right away.
Positions of need at the top of the draft include offensive tackle, offensive guard and tight end.
Tight ends Maxx Williams (Minnesota) and Clive Walford (Miami), offensive tackles Ereck Flowers (Miami) and Cameron Erving (Florida State) or offensive guard A.J. Cann (South Carolina) could all be options for the Broncos in the first round.
Whichever player Denver selects needs to be an instant contributor—regardless of position.
The Broncos' Super Bowl window is still open, but they need to maximize the value of every player in the starting lineup. This means they can’t bust on a potential starter who could be selected in the first round.
Don't Find a Nose Tackle
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Denver is likely to switch to a 3-4 defense next season, which can be seen as a positive for pass-rushers like Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. The Broncos will have to move some players around to fit the new scheme, but first and foremost, they need to find a nose tackle.
Terrance Knighton is set to be an unrestricted free agent. The veteran defensive tackle has turned around his career during the last two seasons with the Broncos. After the Jacksonville Jaguars benched him in 2012, Knighton came to Denver and became a star.
Even though he’s never played nose tackle in a 3-4 defense, Knighton has told me he’s confident in his ability to play that position.
As a defensive tackle in a 4-3 defense, a player must control one gap. Knighton did an outstanding job of that the last two years. As a nose tackle in a 3-4 defense, a player must eat up double-teams and control two gaps as a run-defender.
If the Broncos feel confident Knighton can do that, they should offer him a new long-term contract. He might be willing to take a home-town discount to stay in Denver.
All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via Denver Broncos unless otherwise noted. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac.com. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com.
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