Buying and Selling 2015 Hype for Bowl-Season Breakout Stars
The prudent college football fan reacts without overreacting to bowl games. For every James Conner at Pittsburgh who carries his postseason momentum into the following year, there is a Trevor Knight Oklahoma who doesn't.
The breakout stars of the 2014-15 postseason are no different, although it's hard to tell so soon which ones are Conners and which are Knights. It's tempting to buy stock in all of them, even though we know that some will flame out. (Thanks a lot, recency bias.)
The following list includes the breakout players of bowl season. It does not necessarily include the best players of bowl season, omitting those whose stats were in line with the norm. Georgia running back Nick Chubb, for example, had his best game of the season with 266 rushing yards against Louisville. But that was the sixth time in eight weeks he rushed for at least 140 yards. Even if he had missed the Belk Bowl, he would be considered a 2015 Heisman Trophy contender.
He did not necessarily "break out."
Once the list was built, a decision was made to buy, sell or hold based on each player's stock. Selling a player doesn't mean we don't like him; it means we don't think he's a good value. If he's regarded as a Heisman contender, that might be an overreaction. If he's regarded as a one-game wonder, that might be an underreaction.
Sound off below and let us know what you think.
WR KD Cannon, Baylor
1 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (12 Games)
50 receptions, 833 yards, 6 TD
Bowl Stats (1 Game)
8 receptions, 197 yards, 2 TD
Buy, Sell or Hold?
Prior to the Cotton Bowl, KD Cannon was a fraud. Twelve of his 50 receptions and 412 of his 833 yards came against Northwestern State and Buffalo; in the other 10 games, he averaged 3.8 catches for 42 yards. But the 5-star freshman proved himself against Michigan State, and the departure of Antwan Goodley means even more opportunity. Art Briles' offense requires speed to stretch the field, and Cannon has speed to spare. He'll post huge numbers as a sophomore.
Verdict: Buy
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State
2 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (13 Games)
217 carries, 1,302 yards, 12 TD
Bowl Stats (2 Games)
56 carries, 476 yards, 6 TD
Buy, Sell or Hold?
Ezekiel Elliott was the MVP of the College Football Playoff and returns behind five starting offensive linemen. The contrarian in me wants to sell, since Elliott's value has never been higher, and there's a good chance it's actually inflated. Stopping him will be the mission objective of every Ohio State opponent. Still…how could one possibly sell after watching the Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon games? Elliott made gashing those (very good) defenses look easy.
Verdict: Hold
RB Leonard Fournette, LSU
3 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (12 Games)
176 carries, 891 yards, 8 TD
Bowl Stats (1 Game)
11 carries, 143 yards, 2 TD; 100-yard KO return TD
Buy, Sell or Hold?
Leonard Fournette is as talented as any player in the country. Unfortunately, his offense doesn't have a quarterback. With Terrance Magee and Kenny Hilliard gone, the carries will be there for Fournette to contend for the Heisman. The offensive line will be there, too. But Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris don't strike fear into opposing defenses, which allows them to stack the box. As long as that's the case, Fournette's success rate will weigh him down.
Verdict: Hold
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QB Christian Hackenberg
4 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (12 Games)
236-of-434, 2,606 yards, 8 TD, 15 INT
Bowl Stats (1 Game)
34-of-50, 371 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
Buy, Sell or Hold?
Christian Hackenberg ended a dreadful sophomore year on a high note, matching half of his season touchdown total in one game. "I thought [this season] was the best thing that could possibly happen to me," he told reporters after the regular-season finale; and he proved against Boston College that he's already come a long way.
The 6'4" Hackenberg, a 5-star recruit in 2013, has once-in-a-generation arm talent and returns around a deep group of receivers. The offensive line remains an issue, but when you get the chance to buy low on a quarterback this good, you take it. You have to.
Verdict: Buy
RB Josh Hicks, Rutgers
5 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (11 Games)
50 carries, 238 yards, 1 TD
Bowl Stats (1 Game)
19 carries, 202 yards, 1 TD
Buy, Sell or Hold?
Josh Hicks went seven weeks without a carry in the middle of the season, but he was worked into the offense late and apexed with with 202 yards in the Quick Lane Bowl. The caveat: Rutgers' opponent in the Quick Lane Bowl, North Carolina, finished No. 120 in the country in rushing yards allowed per game. The Scarlet Knights lose most of their offensive line and will not play defenses as bad as UNC's every weekend. Hicks will be good; but he won't be this good.
Verdict: Sell
LB Deon Hollins, UCLA
6 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (12 Games)
27 tackles, 7 TFL, 6 sacks, 2 QB hurries
Bowl Stats (1 Game)
4 tackles, 3 TFL, 3 sacks, 2 QB hurries
Buy, Sell or Hold?
Deon Hollins made swift work of Kansas State in the Alamo Bowl, prompting Kyle Kensing of Bleacher Report to call him the Bruins' next breakout linebacker. At 6'0", 225 pounds, he doesn't have the size or length of Anthony Barr, but he plays Barr's former position well due to quickness and determination. With Myles Jack (the best coverage linebacker in America) across from him, Hollins will be asked to rush the passer often in 2015. He should flirt with the Pac-12 sack title.
Verdict: Buy
QB Cardale Jones, Ohio State
7 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (8 Games)
22-of-34, 375 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT; 34 carries, 215 yards, 0 TD
Bowl Stats (2 Games)
34-of-58, 485 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT; 38 carries, 81 yards, 1 TD
Buy, Sell or Hold?
Cardale Jones etched his name into college football lore by winning the national title as a third-string quarterback. But now he finds himself in a three-way battle with the two guys who started the season ahead of him: Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett.
Ben Axelrod of Bleacher Report considers Jones the favorite to start, but the numbers suggest Barrett played better. Even if those numbers don't matter, the chance that Jones will ride the bench makes him an easy sell. He's being talked about as a Heisman candidate, and he's talented enough to win it, but the value isn't there.
Verdict: Sell
DB Dominick Sanders, Georgia
8 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (12 Games)
33 tackles, 4 pass breakups, 1 INT
Bowl Stats (1 Game)
1 tackle, 1 pass breakup, 2 INT
Buy, Sell or Hold?
Dominick Sanders had a pair of interceptions against Louisville, one of which he returned inside the Cardinals 10-yard line. But interceptions are a fleeting stat that should not be relied on to translate. Sanders is a great story—under-recruited kid finds playing time as a true freshman; stars in Belk Bowl—but one good game does not a breakout make. He should start and play well next season, especially under the tutelage of Jeremy Pruitt, but let's not overreact.
Verdict: Sell
WR Thomas Sperbeck, Boise State
9 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (12 Games)
39 receptions, 678 yards, 3 TD
Bowl Stats (1 Game)
12 receptions, 199 yards, 0 TD
Buy, Sell or Hold?
In the three games before the Fiesta Bowl, Thomas Sperbeck had seven catches for 133 yards. Against Arizona, he couldn't be stopped. There is potential for a drop-off as the Broncos lose quarterback Grant Hedrick, but 2014 backup Ryan Finley and early enrollee Brett Rypien provide a decent cushion. Plus, this is Boise freakin' State: Even in the post-Chris Petersen era, Sperbeck is the exact type of out-of-nowhere player this program turns into stars.
Verdict: Buy
QB Malik Zaire, Notre Dame
10 of 10
Pre-Bowl Stats (6 Games)
9-of-20, 170 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT; 11 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD
Bowl Stats (1 Game)
12-of-15, 96 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT; 22 carries, 96 yards, 1 TD
Buy, Sell or Hold?
Malik Zaire made his first career start against LSU, and although he platooned with Everett Golson—even splitting reps on the game-winning field-goal drive—he played as well as Notre Dame fans had hoped. Still, with Golson coming back next season, it's hard to buy Zaire as hard as his talent warrants. That he might not be the starter hurts his stock, same as Cardale Jones. But since Zaire's stock is slightly lower than that of Jones, he gets a hold instead of a sell.
Verdict: Hold
Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings
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