San Francisco 49ers: Who Stays and Who Goes in 2015 Free Agency?
The San Francisco 49ers have 21 pending free agents, according to Spotrac, and not very much money with which to sign them. According to OvertheCap—who have the best predictions of cap space due to estimating cap-space rollover from year to year—the 49ers are already about $2.7 million over the salary cap for 2015. That means it’s essentially a certainty that not all players are going to find their way back onto the team in 2015.
Of course, the 49ers won’t literally be in a salary-cap hole by the time the 2015 season comes around. First of all, that’s not legal, and secondly, there are a number of things the 49ers can and likely will do to actually save money between now and then.
The best-case scenario for the 49ers, money-wise, would result in them ending up with about $21.3 million of salary-cap room. That’s including cutting Vernon Davis and Ahmad Brooks; the possible retirement of Justin Smith and extending and/or restructuring the contracts of Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis, Stevie Johnson and Alex Boone.
Some of that cash—in the neighborhood of about $1.1 million—will have to go to signing this year’s rookie class. That still leaves them with possibly just over $20 million to negotiate with their own free agents, and possibly go and sign other people, as well.
That’s still not going to be enough to sign all of the team’s free agents, so the question remains—who will stay, and who will go?
The 49ers can probably use their resources to sign one or two of their key free agents, while having to let the rest walk. Let’s take a look at some of the more significant players, and see who the 49ers might spend their limited cash pool on.
All contract numbers from Spotrac.
G Mike Iupati
1 of 7
2014 Cap Hit: $4.6 million
We start with the toughest choice of them all—what to make of a guard who is elite at one aspect of the game, and well below average at the other.
Mike Iupati is a bruising, punishing run-blocker. He was the second-best guard in the league at run blocking in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades, and that’s not an outlier. He was only 16th last season but finished second in 2012, fourth in 2011 and fifth in 2010. When the 49ers are going with their power run game to the left, behind Iupati and Joe Staley, they’re simply among the best in the league.
The 49ers averaged 5.13 yards per carry on runs to the left side of the line, per Pro-Football-Reference, which ranked fifth best in the league last year. Since Iupati came into the league in 2010, the 49ers have been fourth best on a per-carry basis running to the left. If the 49ers are really going to go back to a power-running focus under new head coach Jim Tomsula, Iupati is a must-sign.
On the other hand, Iupati is not a very good pass-blocker. He’s the highest-rated guard in football with a negative pass-rush rating, according to Pro Football Focus, ranking 55th overall in that category. According to their charting stats, Iupati allowed seven sacks, two quarterback hits and 22 quarterback hurries.
When people talk about how “bad” the 49ers offensive line was in 2014, that’s what they’re talking about—pressures on the quarterback. The 49ers, as a team, allowed 52 sacks, tied for their fourth-worst total in franchise history, and their worst total since 2008. No offensive lineman was more responsible for that sieve-like performance than Iupati was.
It was a bit of a down year for Iupati in that sense, but not a horrible outlier—he’s never been very good at pass-blocking. He’s much more comfortable mauling people out of the way of a running back rather than blocking for a passer. While I think he’ll bounce back some from this season’s poor pass-block performance, I don’t think he’ll ever exactly be a stalwart there.
So, will Iupati be back on the team in 2015? The problem here is that it only takes one team to offer a contract that would make him among the top-paid guards in the league, and that’s not something the 49ers either can afford or seem inclined to do.
I think the 49ers will offer Iupati a contract somewhere in the range of what Louis Vasquez, Jon Asamoah or Greg Robinson received in the last two years—somewhere between $4.5 and $6 million a season. If the 49ers can get Iupati back for that much, they should definitely jump on him. Any number around $4 million as a cap hit for 2015 should be considered a great deal for the 49ers, with his salary increasing later on in the deal.
The problem is, someone’s going to offer him a better deal. Multiple-time Pro Bowl guards in the prime of their careers don’t show up every day. The closest comparison is probably Andy Levtire, who signed a six-year, $46.8 million contract in 2013. The 49ers can’t really afford to match that.
That probably means the 49ers will either start Brandon Thomas, Joe Looney or the loser of the Daniel Kilgore-Marcus Martin competition at left guard in 2015. Any of them would be a step down from Iupati, but the 49ers may not have the financial means to grab him.
Will he stay: No, unless they get a significant home-town discount
CB Perrish Cox
2 of 7
2014 Cap Hit: $695,000
Not the name you were expecting to see second? Perrish Cox may not be as high-profile of a free agent as some of the other players the 49ers have to make decisions on, but he played a huge role in 2014. Of their free agents, only Iupati played more snaps than Cox did. Thanks to injuries throughout the secondary, Cox played a major role and did surprisingly well.
Cox ended up starting 14 games for the 49ers in 2014, as Tramaine Brock and Chris Culliver both missed time. He started off amazingly hot, allowing only 22 completions in his first eight games, according to Pro Football Focus. Some poor performances in the second half of the season against the likes of Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Russell Wilson lowered his overall stats, but it still ended up by far his best NFL season.
Considering the secondary played well, the 49ers will likely want to keep as many pieces together as they can. It’s hard to predict exactly what they will do, thanks to secondary coach Ed Donatell joining Vic Fangio in Chicago. I believe, however, that if Perry Fewell gets the job, as CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora indicated was a possibility, he’d try to keep as many pieces together as possible.
The other reason I listed Cox so high is due to the fact that I believe he is the most likely free agent to be re-signed. With only one year of extensive starting experience under his belt, and an outlier year at that, I don’t believe other teams will be falling over themselves to try to bid up Cox’s price. I could see him going to the Chicago Bears to join Donatell and Fangio, but other than that, I think he’s the 49ers’ to sign if they want him.
I don’t see much more than a one-year deal for Cox, but I think he’ll be back on the team in 2015.
Will He Stay: Yes
CB Chris Culliver
3 of 7
2014 Cap Hit: $1.6 million
There was some concern, as he returned from a torn ACL that cost him the entire 2013 season, that Chris Culliver wouldn’t be able to contribute at a high level last season. Instead, he turned in a season as the 49ers’ top cornerback, thanks to Tramaine Brock’s injury.
Culliver was impressive enough that Pro Football Focus named him to their All-NFC West Team, and I made an argument that he should be an alternate for the Pro Bowl. He was consistently solid, as well—other than a bad day covering Michael Floyd in Week 3, Culliver was at least good enough in every single game he played this season. I’ll take consistent performance over highs and lows any day of the week.
Culliver only allowed 50.7 percent of opponent’s passes to be completed, which put him seventh in the league this season, according to Pro Football Focus. He didn’t generate a lot in terms of passes defensed, though he finished the year with four interceptions. He mostly played solid, consistent coverage week in and week out.
As a second corner next to a healthy Brock, that’s exactly what the 49ers would want. The issue is, it’s exactly what other teams might want as well—there are corner-hungry teams out there that would like to slide Culliver into their lineup. Again, I have to point out the Chicago Bears and Donatell—they could use some youth at the position with Charles Tillman likely leaving.
Culliver’s ACL tear from 2013 might drive down his price some; teams might not want to overpay someone who’s only one year removed from a devastating injury like that. That should keep his price somewhat restrained, which is good for the 49ers. I think they’ll have some competition to keep Culliver, but they’ll pony up the cash to keep him around.
The added benefit to signing both Culliver and Cox is the fact that the 49ers wouldn’t have to use a high draft pick on a cornerback. That would leave them free to address their issues at wide receiver and on the defensive line early on.
Will He Stay: Yes
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WR Michael Crabtree
4 of 7
2014 Cap Hit: $4.8 million
At the end of 2012, Michael Crabtree seemed like he was destined for superstardom. He finished that season with 85 catches for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns, and had increased in yardage in every single season up to that point. He had built a rapport with Colin Kaepernick, and together, they were going to usher in a new era in the 49ers’ passing attack.
Then, Crabtree tore his Achilles leading up to the 2013 season. He never quite looked right, even when he came back for the end of that regular season and the playoffs. Surely, however, that could be chalked up to the injury. A full offseason of rest and a fully healthy Crabtree should pick up right where he left off, right?
Not so much. Crabtree caught 68 passes for 698 yards and four touchdowns in 2014, his lowest totals in a full, non-injured season since his rookie year. In that rookie year, he had missed the first five games thanks to a holdout, as well, so it was by far his worst per-game totals.
His yards per catch plummeted, too—his average reception only earned him 10.3 yards, again, his lowest total in his career. He was a clear second option behind the apparently ageless Anquan Boldin, and went long stretches without being a factor at all. He didn’t once top 100 yards receiving in a game, either, and was held to 25 yards or less five times—not exactly the performance you want to put up in a contract year.
The 49ers are in desperate need for talent at the receiver position. Boldin is old, Stevie Johnson missed most of last season with injuries and Bruce Ellington and Quinton Patton are untested. Are they desperate enough to pay the premium for Crabtree, however? I’m not so sure.
It’s a crowded market for free-agent receivers—Crabtree probably falls somewhere after Randall Cobb, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Torrey Smith and Jeremy Maclin—but I’m not sure it’s crowded enough to see Crabtree’s price drop to a point where the cash-strapped 49ers would feel comfortable extending him. Someone is going to pay him like a No. 1 receiver, and I don’t think he justifies that kind of cash expenditure at this point in his career.
The 49ers would be better off trying to sign a quality free agent on the cheap, like Oakland’s Andre Holmes, and then add a talent in the first round of the draft.
Will He Stay: No
RB Frank Gore
5 of 7
2014 Cap Hit: $6.5 million
It’d be kind of depressing to see Frank Gore in another team’s uniform, wouldn’t it? Gore’s been through the worst of the 49ers' recent struggles, fighting through the Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary eras. He’s been the featured back on a lot of bad teams. It looked like he might finally get the Super Bowl ring he deserves when Jim Harbaugh came to town, but we all know how that story ended.
Gore has racked up over 11,000 yards in a 49ers uniform, making him San Francisco’s all-time rushing yardage king. He’s one of the top three running backs in 49ers history, depending on where you put Hall of Famer Hugh McElhenny and Roger Craig. He will go into the 49ers’ Hall of Fame when he retires and has an outside shot at the one in Canton, if all things break his way.
He also will be turning 32 years old next season, and the track record for backs of that age is not good. Only nine times in history has a running back gained over 1,000 yards as a regular starter at 32 or older, and it hasn’t been done since 2005.
However, Gore may not be done just yet. Gore had two throwback performances in his last two games, rushing for 158 and 144 yards to push his season total up over the 1,100-yard mark. It also pushed his yards-per-carry mark up to 4.3, though he was under that for most of the season. He’s on his last tank of gas, but that tank may not be empty yet.
The 49ers do have options if they want to move away from Gore. They have Carlos Hyde, of course, who looked very solid in a more limited role in 2014, and looks ready to take on the lion’s share of carries. They also have Kendall Hunter returning from an ACL injury, and he’s been a very solid second option for his entire career.
The question for Gore is two-fold. First of all, is he comfortable being a change-of-pace running back? Even if he returns, Hyde should get most of the carries from this point forward, so Gore would have to accept a somewhat lesser role. Secondly, what will his salary demands be? His 2014 cap hit was already too large for his 2014 production, so he’ll have to accept a significant pay cut to play anywhere in 2015.
The magic number I’d have in mind for Gore is $2.5 million. Anything more than that, and I think the 49ers would have to see him walk away.
That being said, I think a deal can be done around that point, and both Gore and general manager Trent Baalke have indicated they’d like to give it one more go in 2015, per Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com (h/t Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk). The money might be tight, but I think they’ll figure out a way to give Gore one last go-round in the red and gold.
Will he stay: Yes, as long as he accepts a major pay cut
OLB Dan Skuta
6 of 7
2014 Cap Hit: $1.7 million
Dan Skuta, along with Aaron Lynch, subbed for the suspended Aldon Smith in the first half of the season. Together, they actually did a very solid job, all things considered. While Lynch was the pass-rushing expert, Skuta racked up a career-high five sacks himself. He was the better of the two in run defense, as well.
Skuta has, rather quietly, had a couple of really good seasons, back-to-back. He’s buried behind Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks on the depth chart, and with the rise of Lynch, normally I would say that it’s time for him to earn some money elsewhere.
However, I think Brooks is history. His salary-cap hit for 2015 would be $9.6 million, and cutting him would put the 49ers back on positive cap terms. In addition, they do have Lynch right behind him, ready to take over.
That would leave Lynch and Smith as the two penciled-in starters at either 3-4 outside linebacker or 4-3 defensive end. However, we’ve seen that Smith is a bit of a risk—his next slip-up would likely cost him an entire season. Add the fact that Lynch was a rookie and may not develop as hoped, and there’s definitely room for someone like Skuta as an insurance policy.
Will He Stay: Yes, if Ahmad Brooks is released
WR Brandon Lloyd
7 of 7
2014 Cap Hit: $1 million
Brandon Lloyd returning to the 49ers drew a bit of attention in the offseason, but it ended up being much ado about nothing. He ended up with only 14 receptions for 294 yards and one touchdown, albeit a huge one against St. Louis.
He’ll be 34 in 2015 as well, which is well up there; only four receivers age 34 or older caught any passes in 2014: Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne and Santana Moss.
Lloyd’s closer to Moss than he is any of the other names on the list; an occasional weapon that can be dusted off every now and again, but nothing to be excited about. If he does return, I don’t think he’ll be one of the top five receivers on the depth chart for 2015.
Yes, the 49ers could almost definitely afford his services, but they really won’t have room for him. He’d be behind Boldin, Stevie Johnson, Ellington, Patton and the presumptive rookie they’ll be drafting.
The 49ers could probably re-sign him for the veteran’s minimum, but I don’t see any way he makes the final 53-man roster.
Will He Stay: No
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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