A Message to Red Sox Nation: The Sky Is NOT Falling In!

Inhale...exhale.  Inhale...exhale.  Take deep breaths.

Like every Red Sox fan, I am disappointed by what unfolded in Tampa and New York last week; however, I am mindful of GM Theo Epstein’s declaration that his goal is to build a club that will reach the playoffs and then excel in the postseason. The goal isn’t winning the AL East, it is winning the World Series.

The Red Sox cannot print money like the New York Yankees. They don’t have a brand new, state-of-the-art stadium that was subsidized by the city, nor do they have a lucrative cable television deal in the most populous city in the country.

They can’t compete with the Yankees in terms of payroll, and over the course of a long season the difference in payrolls will often (not always) make the difference in the divisional battle.

The Sox ownership and front office are pragmatic in this respect. They understand the Yankees can AND WILL outspend them, so they have developed a formula that is based on winning the wild card and having players on the roster who: 1) are capable of beating any team in baseball in a seven-game series, and 2) have a track record of postseason success.

The team has struggled in recent weeks, but the organization has developed sufficient depth in the minor league system to hold the fort until the big league club turns the corner.

That depth allowed Epstein to trade for C/1B Victor Martinez, who provides a productive bat for the heart of the lineup for this season and future seasons...it has also provided a constant flow of prospects to help offset the injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield and a handful of everyday players who have been missing from the lineup.

Daniel Bard. Clay Buchholz. Junichi Tazawa. Aaron Bates. Josh Reddick.

And the depth may enable the front office to make more deals as the trade deadline still lies ahead on the horizon.

ALL teams experience ebbs and flows throughout the season...just because the Red Sox are currently struggling does not mean we should assume they will continue to do so.

Typically, for every ebb there is a flow.

In 2004, the team played .500-ball from June 5 through Aug. 6. The club was just nine games over .500 (and 10.5 games out of first place) when play began on Aug. 7...thereafter, they hit their stride, going 40-15 down the stretch, and carried a sizeable dose of momentum with them into the playoffs.

In 2007, the club barely played .500-ball for the month of August (15-13) and endured a stretch in mid-September where they lost five-of-six games (two of those losses came against the Yankees)...and although the Sox led the AL East nearly wire-to-wire, they saw their once-formidable 11.5 game lead shrink to 1.5 games on two occasions during the last two weeks of the season. Callers on talk-radio were panicked.

As always, health will be critical as the team battles for the post-season.

Assuming no major adverse health developments in the next seven weeks, the Sox should only get healthier as Matsuzaka and Wakefield will both return to the rotation by the end of the month...and both will be well-rested as the playoff push begins its final month.

Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Brad Penny should lead the charge into the postseason as the calendar turns to September.

I like the Red Sox chances of making the playoffs—much moreso than I like those of Tampa and Texas. And I’ll take my chances in the Beckett-Sabathia and Lester-Burnett matchups in October.

The pendulum swings both ways. Has anything happened that was completely unexpected or that is completely insurmountable?  No.

Teams get cold. Teams get hot. As for me, I would prefer to see the Sox struggle in early August rather than watch them implode in October.