Super Bowl Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots Against the Spread

After years of lower-seeded teams catching fire at the right time and finding their way into the Big Show, we once again have arguably the two best squads facing each other in the Super Bowl: The defending champs against the most successful franchise of the millennium. 

Thus, it has understandably made this year's odds rise and fall more than a football on the Patriots' sideline (yeah, I went there). 

With the game now just a week away and the hype of Deflategate finally deflating, let's take a more objective look at the matchup, with lines and stats courtesy of Sports Information Traders:

Spread: Pick 'Em; Over/Under: 48

When the lines opened, the median favored the Seahawks by up to -2.5, but the money soon shifted slightly to the Patriots' favor. A week later, we split the difference, essentially making this contest between the two powerhouses a coin toss.

If it remains that way, it would be the first time in Super Bowl history that there is no clear favorite.

Last Games

In the NFC title game, the 'Hawks came from behind, miraculously, to beat the Green Bay Packers 28-22 in overtime.

Meanwhile, the Patriots had no such problems in easily dismantling the Indianapolis Colts, 45-7. 

Overview for the Patriots

New England has failed to cover the spread in the last four of the five Super Bowl games it's played in since 2002, but it still won three of them outright (all by three points). That said, the Patriots have lost the past two—both to the New York Giants, and both in the waning minutes.  

One of the main reasons that the Pats beat the Colts was not because Tom Brady had a big game, but because the Pats played a great game on D and the rejuvenated LeGarrette Blount rushed for 148 of their 177 total yards on the ground. In the last seven games after they'd rushed for more than 150 yards in their previous game, they covered the spread five times.

Overview for the Seahawks

While Seattle won the NFC title game, its offense did not show anything until late in the fourth quarter and ultimately failed to cover the spread. In fact, until a resurgence late the in the game, QB Russell Wilson was on pace for a historically bad outing. Instead, it was just really bad. 

"

Russell Wilson is having a historically bad game. 8 passes completed so far to his own team, 4 INTs, 4 sacks. Only points on a fake FG TD.

— Curt Monash (@CurtMonash) January 18, 2015"

Coming back from a 16-point second-half deficit facing Brady and Blount will be a daunting task, as both are in the zone and will make things difficult for the Seahawks and their great defense. Plus, although they were a dominant 9-1 when hosting games on the season, they were a far more pedestrian 5-3 away from home. 

ATS and O/U Record (Regular Season and Playoffs)

Patriots: 14-4 ATS; O/U: 10-8

Seahawks: 14-4 ATS; O/U: 10-7-1

Key Betting Trends

The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 against a team with a winning record, but 4-11 ATS in their last 15 playoff games. They have an Over record of 13-6 in their last 19 games. 

The Seahawks are 19-7-1 ATS in their past 27 against a team with a winning record, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven following an outright win, and in their last 16 games facing a team with a winning record, the total has gone under 11 times.

In other words, the trends gravitate in both directions here, so something's got to give. 

Last Head-to-Head Matchup

Oct. 14, 2012: The Seahawks prevailed in a 24-23 comeback victory against the Patriots in what's now known as the "U Mad, Bro" game. It may have also marked the day that the 'Hawks were officially anointed as an elite NFL team, which remains the case two-and-a-half years and one Super Bowl championship later.