The Jarrod Washburn Trade: In the Words of Spock, "It Was Logical"

Over the past two weeks I have heard every reason anyone could think of for the Seattle Mariners trading Jarrod Washburn on July 31. They have ranged from "It was because of his contract" to "He didn't want to be here anyway" to "They just wanted to get rid of him."

I'm here to tell you that, despite the perceived low return, the Washburn trade was done for none of those reasons. Jarrod Washburn was traded because of one of the most basic decision making principles. It was logical.

Now, I know what you're thinking. At the time of the trade Washburn was having the best run of games in his career, right smack dab in the middle of the best season (by far) of his career. 

He was 8-6 with a 2.64 ERA at the time of the trade. In his last four starts as a Mariner, he was 4-0 with a 0.74 ERA. Amazing numbers for any pitcher. Unbelievable numbers for a pitcher with a 4.05 career ERA (including this year).

That's an anomaly. Thirty-four-year-old pitchers don't get better as they age. So what made the difference, and what was the logic behind trading Washburn when he was tearing through the lineups of opposing teams.

The biggest factor in Washburn's career rejuvenation (of sorts, more on that later) is the improved outfield defense in Seattle. At the beginning of the season, Washburn was pitching to an outfield that consisted of three of the best defensive outfielders in baseball today. That they played in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the country didn't hurt either. 

So why did the M's decide to trade him for what has been perceived by many to be very little in return? 

The Mariners received from the Tigers two left-handed pitchers, Luke French, currently pitching for the big club in Seattle, and Mauricio Robles, a fire-balling left hander who has been compared by some scouts to a very young Johan Santana, without any out pitch besides his fastball. Not exactly a huge haul for one of the best pitchers in baseball at the time of the trade. 

Let's look at Mauricio Robles. The 5'10" 160-pound lefty from Venezuela throws a fastball in the mid to high 90s. While pitching for the Tigers' Low-A and High-A teams, he struck out 111 batters in 97 IP. That's more than a batter an inning. His control has improved, and he's begun to get a better feel for a breaking ball. The real gem of this deal, undervalued because of his size (much like Tim Lincecum was). 

Luke French, a 6'4", 220-pound behemoth of a pitcher is almost the exact opposite of Robles, and almost an exact clone of Jarrod Washburn. He throws a sinking two-seam fastball in the low 90s, with a decent change and curveball. He relies on location and control to get people out. 

When Jack Jack Zduriencik looked at Luke French, he thought not only of what the kid was capable of, but also of what the outfield would do for him. A flyball pitcher like Washburn, he was bound to benefit from the best outfield defense in the league. Unlike Washburn, he is under club control for the next six years at a much cheaper pricetag. 

Jarrod Washburn very publicly professed his desire to remain in Seattle after this season. That's all fine and good, but pitchers who have a career year in their contract season are rarely inclined to take a pay cut for the good of the franchise. 

Enter the Detroit Tigers. They were willing to part with a decent left-handed pitcher (French) and a good prospect (Robles) for two-months of Jarrod Washburn. The Tigers have a decent outfield defense, but it is nothing compared to what the Mariners run out on a daily basis. Washburns numbers were bound to decline, which in turn would make him cheaper. 

After the first two starts of his Tiger's career, Washburn is sporting an 8.74 ERA as a Tiger. The more he pitches, the worse his numbers get. Washburn is beginning to regress to his career numbers, and nobody is going to pay a pitcher sporting a 4.00-plus ERA for $10-plus million per season, at least not since Bill Bavasi was forced out of Seattle. 

What this leads us to is that, after this season, Washburn will be a free agent. The Tigers are unlikely to offer him arbitration, because he would more than likely accept it, leaving the Tigers with the aforementioned $10-plus-million-per-season starting pitcher with a 4.00-plus ERA. 

If Washburn truly wants to be in Seattle, Jack Zduriencik will have the perfect bargaining chip: the opportunity to work in front of that awesome outfield defense. Washburn will have no choice but to take a pay cut from last season. 

While I'm not saying that is what is going to happen, I am saying that there is a chance that it will. If it does, the Mariners will hold all the bargaining chips. Just because they know what Washburn is capable of when playing in front of the M's defense doesn't mean they will be forced to pay what a pitcher who pitches that way would normally cost. Nobody will pay Washburn what he is making this season to pitch for their team. 

So Washburn will be left with a choice. Pitch for the Mariners, at a drastically reduced rate, and put up great numbers in front of the best outfield defense in the sport, or pitch for another team at a reduced rate, and put up his standard (unimpressive) career numbers. 

I say he'll sign with Seattle for cheap. 

It's logical.