2015 NFL Mock Draft: Complete 1st-Round Outlook Heading into Super Bowl
As the football world at large continues debate about pounds per square inch, front offices around the NFL are beginning to codify their draft boards. Senior Bowl practices have been ongoing all week, and the game itself will be played later Saturday.
While it's unlikely we'll even remember the Senior Bowl happened come April, it's a good starting point for the upcoming few months of crazy draft hype. The prospect list was finalized when the early declaration deadline passed last week, and the Seahawks and Patriots are the only two teams left without a draft position.
Not that any of that really matters at this point. We're still a long way from the combine and individual workouts. We won't have a crystallized view of how the draft will play out until early April—and that's if we're giving ourselves credit.
TOP NEWS
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Colts Release Kenny Moore
Projecting Every NFL Team's Starting Lineup 🔮
Rookie WRs Who Will Outplay Their Draft Value 📈
For now, let's check in on how the draft would shake out if we were to draft today.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Momentum is trending strong in the direction of Jameis Winston as scouts get a better look at Mariota's film. This is kind of baffling. The argument in favor of Winston is basically the oldest NFL cliche in the book: He's more easily projectable. Mariota threw into wider windows because of Oregon's offensive system, and Winston has, on the surface, more experience doing things your typical NFL quarterback does.
Is any of this new information? We've known this all season. All of last season. And, even before Winston came on the scene, the one before. It wasn't stopping anyone from putting Mariota atop their board in early December. There are non-football reasons why Mariota looked like a lock a month ago, but those haven't totally gone away.
I'm sticking to my guns here. This all feels a little trigger-happy.
2. Tennessee Titans: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
The more the Winston narrative changes, though, the more it feels like Tennessee is a no-brainer fit. Winston is about everything you could want physically from a quarterback. He's big, sturdy in the pocket, has a laser arm and is accurate enough to fit his passes into pro-level windows. There's a Ben Roethlisbergerian vibe I get watching him at times, though he's not quite as big.
Ken Whisenhunt loves him some big, strong-armed quarterbacks. Looooooves 'em. Look through his draft history in Arizona and Tennessee and you'll see a strikingly similar pattern with the guys he covets. The problem is most of the guys Whisenhunt selects are terrible at the sport of football and wind up ruining his offense.
Winston is not terrible at football. He's quite good. If he can keep the off-the-field stuff to a minimum, he could be great.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Williams, DL, USC
The Jaguars are on the precipice of building a not-terrible defense. Gus Bradley's team made the leap from 28th to 20th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, and they were trending in the right direction as the season progressed. Bradley's done a solid job of building where his specialties lie.
Adding Williams could be the next step that creates a major leap. Williams is Richard Seymour for this generation. He's a big, versatile defensive lineman who can thrash opponents inside in a 4-3 set or move to the outside in a 3-4 without losing much effectiveness. Given the Jaguars' long-standing woes on the defensive line and Bradley's love of versatile talents, this is a fine fit.
4. Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
You're not going to find a member of the Derek Carr fan club in these parts, but that matters not in this case. The Raiders apparently still believe he can be the long-term answer. They need to find out by getting him weapons who weren't grocery carriers two weeks ago.
Cooper isn't the stereotypical Oakland burner, but he's pretty fantastic at everything else. He runs excellent routes, makes up for his mediocre top-end speed with great ball skills and should be a decadelong starter in this league. It's tough to say where he'd fit in the 2014 class because it looks like an all-time great at the moment.
Just know that many thought Cooper was better than a majority of those players before this season.
5. Washington: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
Bill Callahan got a cushy new job in Washington based on the brilliant work he did in Dallas developing the league's best offensive line. He's starting basically from scratch in the nation's capital. Trent Williams is great even if he's a bit sulky, but Washington lacks elite young talent basically everywhere else.
Scherff is probably a right tackle at the next level. I wouldn't condone spending a top-five pick on a right tackle in most cases. Bust left tackles can sometimes become OK right tackles. Bust right tackles become guards—and ain't nobody gonna be happy about spending a top-five pick on a guard. Scherff is safe enough and Williams is entrenched on the left side enough that I'm not offended by him landing here.
6. New York Jets: Randy Gregory, OLB/DE, Nebraska
Hiring Todd Bowles allows the Jets to stay in their base 3-4, a godsend considering their roster talent. Bowles will undoubtedly look to make a splash at cornerback, a position that forced a Pavlovian grabbing of a bottle of whiskey last season for most Jets fans. The problem is there aren't any cornerbacks remotely worth taking in this spot.
There are, however, pass-rushers. Gregory could go as high as No. 1 if things break right on draft night. He's that good. He can play either outside pass-rushing position, which will come in handy when Bowles wants to switch up schematically, as he was known to from time to time in Arizona.
7. Chicago Bears: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
Chicago Bears: Top Defensive Player on the Board
Just get used to seeing some variation of that over the next few months. It's gonna happen. Opinions will merely differ on who that top player is.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
The worst-kept secret in the NFL is that the Falcons are hiring Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to be their next head coach. It'll happen a couple days after the Super Bowl, probably right after the parade, to give Quinn one last moment with his guys.
Then, it's onto rebuilding what's perennially been one of the NFL's worst defenses. There's no real wrong answer about where to start here. Atlanta's been a defensive dumpster fire for years. It did well for itself in 2013 by drafting Desmond Trufant, and the local product Beasley would be a nice addition to a pass rush desperately in need of help.
9. New York Giants: Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
Make it four straight on the hybrid bandwagon, mainly because it's hard to tell how this will all shake out. Ray, Beasley and Fowler are generally on the same wavelength at this point. At least one will slide because of disappointing workout performances or some random, undetermined reason. For now, though, they're linked pretty closely.
The Giants would prefer Ray or Fowler fall here because they're better suited to play a 4-3 defensive end at the next level.
10. St. Louis Rams: La'el Collins, OT, LSU
Trading draft picks has become a specialty in the Jeff Fisher era. Correctly selecting players has been another adventure entirely. The Rams burned through those Washington picks with little left to show except a heaping pile of mid-20-somethings who aren't living up to their draft billing. Included among those is 2014 No. 2 pick Greg Robinson, whose struggles could open the door for Collins.
The LSU product is huge, experienced and has the skill set to play either tackle spot. His skill set probably lends itself better to the right tackle spot, which shouldn't be a problem if the Rams still believe on the extremely talented Robinson developing.
Selecting Collins at the very least gives St. Louis the appearance of a talented front five once everyone figures out where to play.
11. Minnesota Vikings: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
The Vikings need to replace Matt Kalil at left tackle. They need to do this before the top half of Teddy Bridgewater's body gets separated from the bottom half before a missed assignment. I would suggest doing that now given Kalil's level of play in 2014 and the degree to which he's regressed each season.
Soooo, hello Andrus Peat.
12. Cleveland Browns: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
Cleveland's front office gaffed last year by passing up not one but about a handful of franchise-caliber receivers and banking its offense on the reliability of Josh Gordon. That went about as well as one would expect. Gordon was suspended for Week 17 after violating team rules, and his status in Cleveland once again appears in flux.
Grabbing Parker should help atone for those sins. A potential first-round pick last year, Parker came back to school, suffered a foot injury that cost him seven games and still was good enough to move himself up draft boards. The former Louisville star has no glaring weaknesses. He's 6'3", has above-average speed and quickness, and made strides in fighting for 50-50 balls last season.
If he's still there, the Browns need to pull the trigger on their Gordon insurance policy this time.
13. New Orleans Saints: Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
Keeping Rob Ryan around for one more season means finding him defensive talent to work with. Thompson won't help rejuvenate the New Orleans pass rush, but he can do just about everything else. Built in the mold of Thomas Davis, Thompson covers a ton of ground against the run and is the best coverage linebacker in this draft by a pretty significant margin.
Ryan has long generated pressure with his blitz schemes. Having a linebacker around who can make all the other plays should make everything else easier.
14. Miami Dolphins: T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
The Dolphins continue building a solid offensive line around Ryan Tannehill here with Clemmings. A bit of a work in progress, Clemmings' progress at the next level will be fun to watch. He's played offensive line for only two seasons, both of which came at right tackle.
Most are projecting him at the right side or perhaps even guard. But at 6'5" and 307 pounds, the Pitt product has the body of a prototypical left tackle and the athleticism to go with it. Teams often fall in love with projectability in the draft process. Clemmings might find himself vaulting up draft boards as the process goes along.
15. San Francisco 49ers: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
This year's Aaron Donald. Not necessarily from a size or skills standpoint, but because basically anyone who watches him play falls in love. Shelton has the makings of a perennial Pro Bowler. He's a gargantuan human being with a solid motor and nose for the ball.
The 49ers installing Jim Tomsula, their longtime defensive line coach, as their new head coach makes the fit even better. Justin Smith is considering retirement, former starter Ray McDonald is now a free-agent and Quinton Dial is closer to replacement level than an elite long-term option. Shelton could anchor the middle of San Francisco's front seven for the next decade.
16. Houston Texans : Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
The Texans need a ton of offensive help, so why not start the rebuilding process with the draft's best tight end? Williams is a gifted red-zone target at 6'4" and a solid pass-catcher who should provide a safety net to whoever winds up under center next season. He's not an athletic freak on the level of Eric Ebron, but Williams is a good player and clearly the best player at his position—assuming you consider Devin Funchess a wide receiver.
(I don't. But more about that later.)
17. San Diego Chargers: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
Signing Brandon Flowers to just a one-year deal was a mistake. Now the Chargers are left with the choice between paying their top cover corner an eight-figure signing bonus or being right back to where they were at the position.
Regardless of what they decide, Waynes is a nice fit at a weak position in this class. He's very good. There's not a better way to describe him. I can't see him becoming a perennial Pro Bowler, yet the floor is probably somewhere around a league-average starter. Waynes was one of a few bright spots on an uncharacteristically leaky Michigan State defense last season.
The team that winds up with him should be able to cross off a starter's spot in year one.
18. Kansas City Chiefs: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
Pegging Green-Beckham's draft stock is impossible at this point. He could go anywhere from here to the fourth round and I wouldn't bat an eye. His off-the-field transgressions can't be ignored. On the field, he looks like a Calvin Johnson clone and is three years removed from being the top prep prospect in the country.
On the other hand, he was booted from the Missouri team and is a year removed from playing competitive football. There is no right answer here. There are flaws with every argument in his favor and to his detriment. I'm throwing him here because the Chiefs desperately need a difference-maker at wide receiver and Andy Reid's long been excellent at handling malcontents.
Just know things could flip at any moment.
19. Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo): Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
Karlos Dansby won't be around forever. Craig Robinson is all energy and effort but lacks skill of a Pro Bowl-caliber player. It's unclear which player McKinney would be selected to replace. It might not matter. He's arguably better than both right now.
The Mississippi State product is an inside linebacker prospect with the athletic profile of an outside linebacker. At 6'5" and 243 pounds, McKinney uses his size to make quick reads and can occasionally blow up a play in the backfield when his aggression pays off.
20. Philadelphia Eagles: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
The Marcus Mariota dream is just that until the Eagles actually move up on draft day. Imagining Mariota under center for his old college coach is fun, and probably the best result for everyone involved. It's also far more realistic the Eagles are sitting at No. 20 wondering where to go.
Collins, if somehow available in this spot, answers all those questions. The Eagles have a desperate need at safety. While they'd probably rather have a cover-first guy who won't get beaten over the top, Collins is a potential top-10 pick who would be too good to pass on here. He's more of a run-stopper than an elite coverage man, as Alabama safeties are wont to be. He's also wildly gifted at his craft and someone who could anchor the Eagles' back half for years.
This isn't that difficult of a decision.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
Mohamed Sanu doesn't catch the football well enough to be a No. 2 wide receiver. That's just the reality of the situation. Excellent run when A.J. Green was on the shelf aside, he makes too many mistakes in an offense that already has Andy Dalton to worry about.
Moving Sanu into that third receiver slot and taking Strong here is the best possible scenario for building a consistent offense. Dalton's never going to be able to carry an offense on his own. The Bengals are locked into his deal for at least the next two seasons. Might as well build the best possible offense around him and see how far that core can go.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers: Gerod Holliman, S, Louisville
Troy Polamalu may have played his last game in a Steelers uniform. Owner Art Rooney II told Scott Brown of ESPN.com as much this week. Despite the two years remaining on his contract, Polamalu's play has noticeably fallen off and the team can save nearly $4 million in cap space by moving on.
If that's the case, Holliman is an exciting potential replacement. Holliman tied an NCAA record this season with 14 interceptions, flashing an aggression one could say is reminiscent of a younger Polamalu. The elder statesman was a more complete player coming out of USC, and Holliman's aggression can often be as much of a detriment as a strength.
But with Polamalu possibly heading out of the door, it'd only be proper to replace him with someone of a similar, attacking mold.
23. Detroit Lions: Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
The Lions will move on from Ndamukong Suh or Nick Fairley this offseason, probably the former given his understandable salary demands and history of being, well, difficult. Fairley has only eight games of very good NFL play on his resume, but the Lions know him better than anyone. If they sign him—at a much lower cost than Suh, mind you—it means they're buying in.
That said, insurance policies are never bad. Goldman can provide just that by adding another excellent young talent to this offensive line. The Florida State standout stands 6'4" and 315 pounds, and was one of college football's better run-stuffers in 2014. A Fairley and Goldman defensive front might not be Fairley-Suh, but it'll help avoid a major attrition heading into next season.
24. Arizona Cardinals: Alvin Dupree, DE, Kentucky
After fielding the worst offense in modern playoff history, you'd think the Cardinals wouldn't even look at the defensive side of the ball. Not so fast. Arizona is far closer to mediocre when healthy than anyone's giving it credit. Carson Palmer is league-average at worst, Andre Ellington should be better after an injury-riddled 2014 and their receiving corps has depth in what it lacks for elite players.
There's reason to believe the Cardinals can compete for an NFC West title with that offense. For that to happen, they need to go about fortifying weaknesses on the other side of the ball. Dupree, an outside linebacker/defensive end hybrid, can go a long way to improving Arizona's shaky pass rush. He was one of a select few reasons—perhaps the only reason—to watch a miserable Kentucky outfit that dropped its final six games.
Given what they started last year, Dupree would probably be an instant starter at one of the outside linebacker spots.
25. Carolina Panthers: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Florida)
Cam Newton is a tough human being. He is also a human being. He is not a battering ram, nor a steel post, nor a reinforced wall. It's appeared at times throughout his career the Panthers are not aware of these facts. From goal-line plunges to putting five shrug emojis in front of him and calling it an offensive line, it's no wonder Newton missed the first two games of his career this season.
Drafting Flowers would be a showing of good faith that Carolina acknowledges his human tendencies. The Miami tackle isn't a fully formed prospect, but neither was Kelvin Benjamin a year ago. Carolina would be smart to throw him into the fire right away and hope it pans out as it did with its last Florida-based project.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
Don't tell Steve Smith I said this: He's getting pretty old. He will not be playing football forever. There is a better than 50 percent chance he's closer to the player he was in the second half of 2014 (38 receptions, 390 yards, two touchdowns) than he was in the first half (41 receptions, 675 yards, five touchdowns).
Torrey Smith, who took over as Joe Flacco's best target in the final eight games, is a free agent. He's also proven to be a weekly wild card from a production standpoint.
White is talented enough to find himself in the top 15 on draft night. Baltimore pulls the trigger if he's on the board here.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Proponents of the Cowboys allowing DeMarco Murray to walk in free agency rather than handing him an eight-figure signing bonus stand up. [stands up]
Proponents of the Cowboys replacing Murray with a running back drafted in a high-priority round and using those savings to shore up their roster elsewhere stand up. [stands up]
Gordon being available in this scenario makes everything much easier.
28. Denver Broncos: Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
Peyton Manning will either be back in 2015 or he won't. It's hard to tell at this point. What's clear, though, is the Broncos have to start preparing for life without their aging signal-caller. They arguably took the first step hiring Gary Kubiak, whose offense based on stretch plays and rollouts isn't exactly ideal for the soon-to-be 39-year-old.
Hundley's strengths are that he can do basically everything Manning can't at this point. He's a gifted runner, has a rocket propeller for a right arm and thrives when he's asked to make plays outside the pocket. He's also nowhere close to being ready to lead an NFL offense. Assuming Manning comes back for 2015—a better than 50-50 shot at this point if I'm guessing—Denver could use next season as a bridge into the future.
29. Indianapolis Colts: Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State
A spot previously earmarked for Cedric Ogbuehi goes to Erving by default. The Colts need to build a coherent line around Andrew Luck and put the nightmare Gosder Cherilus signing in the past. Erving played tackle for most of his college experience before a move to center turned him into a superstar. It's unclear where he'll play at the next level. The Colts might be smart to move him to the right side and see if they can get the best of both worlds.
30. Green Bay Packers: Devin Funchess, WR/TE, Michigan
Imagine the Packers offense with a Jimmy Graham-esque weapon. That would, like, probably be pretty cool. The Packers should do that, right? Agreed.
31. Seattle Seahawks: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Depends on where the Seahawks stand with Marshawn Lynch come draft day. Cutting or trading Lynch would save $7 million on their 2015 cap, money they'll need with a Russell Wilson extension upcoming. An extension is theoretically possible, but seems unlikely given Lynch's age and assumed contract demands.
Gurley might never be the same after suffering a torn ACL last season. He might become the next Marshawn Lynch. Depending on what happens with the Marshawn Lynch we already have, this has a chance to go perfectly for all involved.
32. New England Patriots: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
The one-year Darrelle Revis rental is quickly expiring. Peters is the best player available at Revis' position. That about explains it from a logic perspective.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
