Playing Steady or Streaky with Top NBA Scorers of 2014-15 Season
Every NBA scorer comes with his own unique microwave setting.
Some heat up and cool down rapidly. Others get hot and stay hot over much longer stretches; Klay Thompson served as the most recent example by exploding for 37 points in the third quarter of Friday night's game against the Sacramento Kings. Some never go on long runs at either end of the streaky spectrum.
Current measurements come up short, so we decided to find out who the truly streaky and steady shooters are among the NBA's 10 leading scorers who are qualified for the scoring crown.
As broken down in the detailed explanation you can find here, players' levels of streakiness are partially determined by the distance of their average shot from the field and by how much certain stretches deviate from their season-long average. If you're interested in the admittedly complicated methodology behind this (or if you're curious about how streakiness is largely random and the "hot hand" is mythical), I'd highly encourage you to check out the description.
But if you just want to see whether the top scorers have been streaky or steady in 2014-15, here are the basics of what you need to know.
The stat we're calling "true steadiness" can be either positive or negative. The former indicates that a player has been steady, while the latter shows the opposite. It's all about what happens within sets of five shots, so we'll be talking a lot about whether players have racked up five straight makes or misses during the current season.
Also note that calling a player "streaky" is not necessarily a bad thing. Strings of makes lead to that label just as much as stretches of imperfection do.
Now, let's take the league's top 10 scorers and play everyone's favorite hot-hand game: streaky or steady?
DeMarcus Cousins: Streaky
1 of 10
Team: Sacramento Kings
Position: C
Scoring Stats: 24.2 points per game, 48.1 percent shooting
Average Shot Distance: 7.33 feet
True Steadiness: Minus-0.2
Among the NBA's 10 leading qualified scorers, no player has been streakier than DeMarcus Cousins. Both before and after his bout with viral meningitis earlier this year, the Sacramento Kings big man has seen his field-goal percentage hover around the 50 percent mark while remaining prone to stretches of hot and cold shooting.
Interestingly enough, however, this is new for Cousins. Last year, his true steadiness was at 0.01, which means that he was just slightly steadier than would be expected for someone with his average shot length (7.33 feet this year). In 2014-15, he's become far more likely to produce those streaky stretches while maintaining an identical distance on his average look.
Is there a reason for this change? Pure randomness, and not much else.
The center's first impressively lengthy string of consecutive makes came during the third and fourth quarters of a Nov. 2 game against the Los Angeles Clippers. He knocked down seven shots in a row—all but one of which came from within two feet of the basket—and helped close a seven-point deficit to just two. To put that in perspective, Kevin Durant—who led the league in scoring last year with a historically excellent campaign—knocked down seven shots in a row only 11 times throughout his 81 appearances in 2013-14.
Thus far, Cousins has only been able to match that Nov. 2 exploit once, and that came during the first half of a mid-January loss to the Dallas Mavericks.
It's also worth noting that this Kentucky product hadn't missed more than six shots in a row, which he did on his first half-dozen attempts of the season, prior to late January. Then, he clanged 10 consecutive looks in the first half of a Jan. 21 game against the Brooklyn Nets.
LeBron James: Steady
2 of 10
Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Position: SF/PF
Scoring Stats: 26 points per game, 49.5 percent shooting
Average Shot Distance: 11.84 feet
True Steadiness: 0.09
Though it's tough for players to maintain true steadiness levels from one year to the next, as the entire concept is rooted in randomness, some factors can render that last statement incorrect. Cerebral play is one of them, and James has that in spades.
He always picks the right spots when fully engaged, and that helps him avoid going ice cold. And as for heating up, well, that doesn't happen with any more frequency than you'd expect from a player who takes his average look from a dozen feet.
During the first year of his return to the Cleveland Cavaliers, James has made five shots in a row only nine times. Based on how many games the Cavs have completed, that puts him on pace to have 17 such runs. Last season, his final one with the Miami Heat, he hit that mark 25 times, and the increase shouldn't be that surprising since it was less of an aberration when compared to his career-best 56.7 percent shooting from the field.
How many times has he missed five consecutive attempts for the Cavs?
Well, he opened the season by going 1-of-2 against the New York Knicks and then struggling his way throughout the rest of the game, even missing seven straight looks over the course of the first and second quarters. But since that inexplicable loss, he's only reached that negative milestone on seven other occasions.
James was as steady as a top scorer could be last year, trailing only Chris Paul and Goran Dragic among the top 28 point-producing players. This season, he's been a bit more volatile but still checks in more steady than streaky.
Anthony Davis: Streaky
3 of 10
Team: New Orleans Pelicans
Position: PF/C
Scoring Stats: 24.2 points per game, 55.7 percent shooting
Average Shot Distance: 8.65 feet
True Steadiness: Minus-0.2
Though Anthony Davis has improved remarkably as a scorer during his third go-round at the professional level, he's gotten even streakier than he was last year. Despite averaging more points per game and shooting with even more efficiency this season, his true steadiness score has shifted from minus-0.14 in 2013-14 to its current mark—minus-0.2.
So, how about the extreme streaks for this 21-year-old phenom?
Davis' longest cold stretch of the year is actually only five missed buckets in a row. He's done that six times, though only three of those instances saw all five of the bricks come during the same game. The other three times, he ended a game cold and resumed what he'd begun the next night.
Instead, the reason he's become even streakier is that he's now making at least five shots consecutively on so many more occasions. In other words, it's a good thing. Already in 2014-15, Davis has done so 17 times. He's even gotten into double digits once, which not even 2013-14 Kevin Durant could do.
During a Dec. 10 loss to the Dallas Mavericks—one in which Monty Williams inexplicably failed to feed a hot Davis the ball down the stretch—the unibrowed big man went 4-of-4 from the field in the final quarter. Two nights later, he picked up where he left off against the Cleveland Cavaliers, drilling each of his first seven shots before letting the streak die at 11 on a missed 14-footer with 4:03 left in the opening quarter.
LaMarcus Aldridge: Steady
4 of 10
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Position: PF
Scoring Stats: 23.2 points per game, 46.2 percent shooting
Average Shot Distance: 12.22 feet
True Steadiness: 0.13
The master of the mid-range shot had a true steadiness score of 0.01 during the 2013-14 season, but he's been even less streaky throughout the first half of the follow-up campaign.
Heading into the end of January, Aldridge's longest string of consecutive makes is nine, which he achieved while playing the surprisingly respectable defense of the Philadelphia 76ers on Nov. 25. He's gotten to five successful conversions in a row on just eight separate occasions, however.
And does he have many more negative streaks? Not by a significant amount.
Some of the stretches of poor play have been longer—most notably 11 straight clangs that came during late November contests against the Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics—but he's only missed five shots in a row 13 times thus far.
Up through his Jan. 19 victory over the Sacramento Kings, Aldridge had taken 760 shots for the Portland Trail Blazers during the 2014-15 season. Obviously, these runs of perfection and imperfection pale in comparison to the consistent averages he's been producing all year.
James Harden: Streaky
5 of 10
Team: Houston Rockets
Position: SG
Scoring Stats: 27.1 points per game, 45.1 percent shooting
Average Shot Distance: 13.6 feet
True Steadiness: Minus-0.17
James Harden's ability to heat up and cool down has to be taken with a serious grain of salt. Yes, he's one of the more streaky top scorers in 2014-15 and, among the 28 qualified players who averaged at least 18 points per game last season, he was the third most prone to strings of consecutive results.
But Harden's game depends on getting to the charity stripe and converting, and that throws off our results rather significantly. We're not accounting for the times that Harden gets to the line on four consecutive possessions and makes all his free throws; we're only looking at field-goal attempts.
With that caveat out of the way, the bearded point guard puts up smaller streaks quite frequently. He makes or misses four shots in a row rather often, but it's rare that he can fill up his fingers while counting how many consecutive times he's found the bottom of the net.
In fact, Harden didn't hit five straight shots until the second quarter of a Dec. 5 contest against the porous Minnesota Timberwolves. He's still only reached that mark four times, despite leading the league in scoring thus far, and he has yet to make more than six buckets in a row.
On the flip side, the bearded 2-guard has gone ice cold quite often—which, to be fair, does happen more often to players who take shots from so far away. He's failed to find the hoop five straight times on 16 separate occasions. Twice, that streak has become rather long.
During the second and third periods of a victory over the Sacramento Kings on Nov. 26, Harden missed a dozen shots in a row. Slightly over a month later, he repeated that, closing out a loss to the Chicago Bulls on an 0-of-10 run and then missing his first two attempts against the Cleveland Cavaliers two nights later.
Again, this isn't a bad thing. Harden is streaky, but he's just taking a different route to an efficient scoring title than other players have.
Kobe Bryant: Streaky
6 of 10
Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Position: SG
Scoring Stats: 22.3 points per game, 37.3 percent shooting
Average Shot Distance: 15.2 feet
True Steadiness: Minus-0.06
Does it surprise you that Kobe Bryant has been slightly more streaky than steady?
It probably shouldn't, as he likes shooting often and tends to have those quarters where he lights up the scoreboard before going ice cold from the field. He also has stretches where he becomes more of a distributor and picks his spots so wisely that he can't help but find twine on consecutive attempts.
But five makes in a row? That's a rarity for a 36-year-old Bryant who's coming off two major injuries. He's managed to knock down that many consecutive shots only twice all season—once against the Houston Rockets on Nov. 19, when he drilled seven straight between the second and third quarters, and once against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Nov. 28, when he made five in a row down the stretch of a tight game.
To put that in perspective, Bryant nearly topped that in just one game during the 2005-06 season. When he exploded for 81 points against the Toronto Raptors, he had an eight-shot stretch of perfection in the third quarter and got to four-in-a-row on two other occasions.
Unfortunately, Bryant went cold quite frequently this year before tearing his rotator cuff. He's missed five consecutive attempts 25 different times, lowlighted by an 0-of-10 stretch against the Washington Wizards and Boston Celtics in early December and an 0-of-11 run against the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs in the middle of November.
Blake Griffin: Neither
7 of 10
Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Position: PF
Scoring Stats: 23.0 points per game, 50.1 percent shooting
Average Shot Distance: 9.95 feet
True Steadiness: 0.00
Among the 28 qualified players who averaged 18 points per game or more during the 2013-14 season, only Kevin Durant, James Harden, Anthony Davis and David Lee were streakier than this Los Angeles Clippers power forward. But Blake Griffin has flipped the script in 2014-15, and he's actually neither steadier nor streakier than we'd expect to see from someone whose average shot distance is barely less than double digits.
Up to this point in the campaign, Griffin's longest streak of makes has come in a blowout victory against the Dallas Mavericks on Jan. 10.
Within the friendly confines of the Staples Center, the big man ended his third quarter by receiving a pass from Matt Barnes and drilling a 19-foot jumper that increased the LAC lead to four points. He began the fourth period in the same way, receiving an assist from Barnes and making a 19-footer that expanded the Clippers' advantage to double figures.
He wouldn't miss again, running the streak out to eight consecutive buckets before misfiring on his first shot of the ensuing contest against the Miami Heat. That wasn't the start of a long streak of misses, though, as those have been fairly rare for Griffin.
Since failing to connect on any of his first six shots of the season, Griffin has only reached five straight misses on six more occasions.
Carmelo Anthony: Streaky
8 of 10
Team: New York Knicks
Position: SF
Scoring Stats: 24.1 points per game, 45 percent shooting
Average Shot Distance: 13.95 feet
True Steadiness: Minus-0.05
While the New York Knicks have been steadily losing games, Carmelo Anthony has been steadily racking up points and hovering right around his season-average field-goal percentage of 45.6. Though he's widely viewed as a heat-up scorer who can act like a microwave at any given time, that actually hasn't been the case in 2014-15.
Well, at least not for someone whose average shot is slightly less than 14 feet away from the basket. Just as was the case in 2013-14, when Anthony posted a true steadiness mark of minus-0.05, he's right around the expected number of hot and cold streaks for a player with that type of typical attempt from the field.
Still, that doesn't mean he's been immune to long strings of consecutive looks with the same results.
Anthony has misfired at least five times in a row on 10 separate occasions. He nearly bottomed out on the road against the Detroit Pistons, submitting an 0-of-9 opening in that Nov. 5 game, which continued the streak he started the night before by missing his last shot against the Washington Wizards. But the worst run of imperfection came against the Brooklyn Nets and Cleveland Cavaliers in early December, as he missed 11 shots in a row.
As for positive stretches, the high-scoring small forward has knocked down five consecutive shots six times thus far. However, he has yet to hit six in a row.
Stephen Curry: Steady
9 of 10
Team: Golden State Warriors
Position: PG
Scoring Stats: 22.8 points per game, 49.7 percent shooting
Average Shot Distance: 16.54 feet
True Steadiness: 0.23
Stephen Curry isn't fair.
He's a point guard who consistently finds himself near the top of the three-point leaderboard, and he's one of the best free-throw shooters in basketball history. Additionally, he's hovering right around 50 percent shooting from the field while taking his average look from over 16.5 feet, and he's still been this steady a shooter?
Again, Stephen Curry isn't fair.
Despite spending so much time in a different zip code than the rim, the league's premier perimeter threat—sorry, Kyle Korver, but Curry takes the crown because he does more damage off the bounce—has misfired on five consecutive shots all season. He's never missed more than seven in a row. Meanwhile, he's made at least five straight attempts just a literal handful of times in 2014-15, and he's topped out, once more, at seven.
No matter what kind of shots he's taking, the Golden State Warriors' MVP candidate is probably going to make either two or three during nearly every set of five attempts. Even though his playing style screams that this shouldn't be possible, he's been eerily consistent during the Dubs' historically excellent first half.
But need more proof that the hot hand is mythical?
Curry's true steadiness last year was negative.
Klay Thompson: Steady
10 of 10
Team: Golden State Warriors
Position: SG
Scoring Stats: 22.6 points per game, 47.8 percent shooting
Average Shot Distance: 15.99 feet
True Steadiness: 0.28
Surprised? Don't be.
Before Klay Thompson's NBA-record outburst in the third quarter of a Jan. 23 game against the Sacramento Kings, his true steadiness score was actually even further in the positive direction, as he's been remarkably consistent for the Golden State Warriors throughout his breakout 2014-15 campaign.
"Maybe in elementary school I had 50 in fourth grade playing with third-graders. That was the last time I went on a scoring rush like that," Thompson explained on the CSN Bay Area broadcast after torching the Kings for 37 third-quarter points.
Even for the steadiest shooters, these types of streaks can happen every once in a while, though not necessarily compressed into a 10-minute stretch like this one was. Before knocking down 13 shots in a row in one period—including a remarkable nine looks from beyond the arc—Thompson's longest string of consecutive makes in 2014-15 was just seven, and he'd only hit five straight attempts on four separate occasions.
Conversely, you could count the number of times he'd missed five in a row with only two hands.
That's steadiness, and his 37-point showing is a perfect example of why people still believe in the hot-hand fallacy. Those 13 makes in a row are going to be shown a ridiculous number of times in the next few days, and they'll be ingrained in the memory of anyone and everyone who sees them, even though that will happen at the expense of the much higher number of shots he's made and missed with steadiness.
One remarkable outburst trumps everything in the mind—just not when you look at the actual numbers, which indicate Thompson has been the steadiest of the NBA's top 10 scorers, even after his third-quarter showing.
After all, why should 13 shots—even if they're literally perfect ones—trump the other 658 attempts this shooting guard has lofted up in 2014-15?
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, are current heading into Jan. 24's games. Shot results come from Basketball-Reference.com, while information on shot distances is culled from NBAMiner.com.
