Peyton Manning and Gary Kubiak Must Compromise to Reach Goal in 2015

General manager John Elway has made it clear what he expects from the Denver Broncos in 2015 by parting ways with head coach John Fox. Anything less than a Super Bowl isn’t good enough, which immediately puts the pressure on new head coach Gary Kubiak, whom the Broncos will formerly introduce Tuesday.

It also puts the pressure on quarterback Peyton Manning, who will have to come in and work with an entirely new offensive coaching staff. Manning will have to adjust to Kubiak’s offense, but so too will Kubiak have to adapt it for the soon-to-be 39-year-old quarterback.

Both Kubiak and Manning will have to make compromises to get where they want to go in 2015. Stubbornness is not an option, as there are too many philosophical and style differences between the Manning offense and a Kubiak offense.

One of the things Manning is going to have to realize is that he’s no longer capable of carrying the offense week-to-week for the 19 games required to win a Super Bowl. Age has sapped a lot of his arm strength, and any injuries can wreak havoc with his pinpoint accuracy—as we all saw in his putrid playoff performance against the Colts.

Kubiak’s job going forward will be to protect Manning from himself, but not simply by neutering the best on-field offensive mind in the game. Give too much, and Manning is writing checks his body can’t cash. Give too little, and the offense won’t be cashing enough.

Autonomy at the Line of Scrimmage

Manning is accustomed to having total autonomy at the line of scrimmage. In the past, Manning could change plays or routes if he felt it was necessary. Kubiak has been philosophically opposed to such arrangements in the past.

Kubiak was loyal to Matt Schaub to a fault in Houston, but even after rewarding him with a four-year extension worth $62 million in 2012, he didn’t grant him autonomy at the line of scrimmage. It was a hot topic in Oakland last offseason when they traded for Schaub.

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Being unable to audible in Kubiak's system is "like playing with one arm tied behind your back,” according to Heisman Trophy winner and Texans’ color analyst Andre Ware, via 95.7 The Game.

“There are things I'm being asked to do here (in Oakland) that I didn't have control of in Houston,” Schaub said prior to last season, via Jerry McDonald of the Bay Area News Group. “I would have loved to, but we just weren't in control of it.”

That’s not to say Kubiak is opposed to all adjustments at the line of scrimmage—they’re just limited in scope. For all of Schaub’s problems, mental capacity wasn’t one of them. Schaub’s physical skills declined, and that caused significant issues in Kubiak’s offense.

“I have a bit more control (in Oakland),” Schaub said last fall via Scott Bair of CSN Bay Area. “We had audible systems in Houston but, as far as protection calls and some other things, there is more freedom to change routes and put the skill players in position to make big plays.”

Adjusting routes is what Manning does best, so Kubiak is the one who will need to make a major compromise. Kubiak is going to have to learn to trust Peyton’s incredible mind as much as his own. As long as Peyton is judicious with his changes at the line, there’s no reason to believe this won’t work.

If Manning doesn’t have control at the line, he might just call an audible and decide to retire even though just about everyone expects him to return in 2015. If Kubiak is going to bend his philosophy for someone, Manning is a good candidate.

Run-Pass Split

On average, Kubiak’s offenses have averaged the 10th-most rush attempts in the league. Manning-led offenses have averaged 19th. However, the Broncos have averaged the 11th-most rush attempts over the last three years with Manning, and Kubiak’s Ravens had just five more rushing attempts than the Broncos last season.

Split	Rush Att.	Rush Yds.	Rush TD	Yds/Rush	Pass Att.	Pass Yds.	Pass TD
Gary Kubiak (OC+HC)	10	9	10	10	16	12	14
Peyton Manning	19	20	11	21	7	3	3
Manning in Denver	11	15	10	22	7	3	2

The incompatibility is more about when the rushing attempts come than the number. Nearly 41 percent of the Broncos’ rushing attempts in 2014 came when they were up by eight or more points. Just about 52 percent of their rushing attempts came when they were within seven points.

Kubiak’s Ravens ran the ball about 63 percent of the time when the score was within seven points. The Ravens ran the ball more in every situation than the Broncos last year except when they were up by eight or more points.

Offenses can run the ball more under Kubiak early and while trailing because it’s effective. In his 20 years as head coach and offensive coordinator, his offenses have been in the top five in yards per carry eight times, in the top 10 12 times and in the top half 16 times. Manning’s offenses have been in the top five only once in yards per carry, in the top 10 twice and in the top half five times in his 16 years handing the ball off.

Expect Kubiak to implement his running game and for the run-pass splits to be reflective of one of his offenses. Kubiak can use Manning’s aging arm to put points on the board in the red zone and when he can use play action to his advantage.

Team	Up 8+	Up 1-7	Tied	Down 1-7	Down 8+
2014 Broncos	181	102	63	64	34
% of Runs	40.8%	23.0%	14.2%	14.4%	7.7%
2014 Ravens	120	113	72	95	48
% of Runs	26.8%	25.2%	16.1%	21.2%	10.7%

The zone-blocking scheme that Kubiak favors shouldn’t affect Manning at all other than a higher usage rate. In Indianapolis, Manning’s offenses used the pin-and-pull type of zone scheme, and the Broncos have used a mix of zone and man blocking over the last three years.

To have Manning’s eyes on the field with the ability to adjust from inside zone to outside zone and vice versa will only make the Broncos’ running game more dangerous in 2015. Running back C.J. Anderson should have a huge year in 2015. Montee Ball is also a great fit for the zone scheme.

Play Action (Boots Not Required)

Manning has long been one of the best quarterbacks at using play action over the years. Last season, Manning was third in the league in yards-per-attempt differential using play action, according to Pro Football Focus. Manning led the league in 2013 in that statistic, and he was third in 2012.

The running game for Kubiak does come at the expense of pass attempts. Manning’s pass attempts, yards and touchdown ranks in Denver have all mirrored his career rankings, but that could be about to change.

Even during the Elway era under Kubiak, the Broncos weren’t attempting many passes compared to the rest of the league. What they were doing was throwing for touchdowns and not throwing interceptions. Kubiak’s teams have struggled to do both, although the Ravens did decently in both categories in 2014.

Manning’s average rank in touchdown passes over the years is third, and he’s only been outside the top five twice. He’s never been outside the top 10 in touchdown passes in his career.

Quarterback	Play Action %	Comp. % Differential	YPA Differential
Peyton Manning	22.3% (11)	-1.3% (20)	3.0 (2T)
Joe Flacco	18.5% (21)	3.3% (10)	0.7 (17T)

Interceptions are a different story. Manning has struggled at times throwing interceptions, particularly in years when he and his team have struggled more than the norm. In theory, the running game should keep Manning from making dangerous throws, but that wasn’t the case for him in 2014.

A lot has been made of the bootlegs and rollout passes Kubiak likes to use that don’t appear to fit Manning, but it’s worth noting that Joe Flacco didn’t run a lot of play action at all in 2014. The bootlegs were a specific wrinkle for Schaub and not necessarily a staple of his offense.

Manning is so adept at play action, Kubiak would be crazy not to use it in conjunction with his running game. Don’t expect Manning to be running around, but his heavy use of play fakes should continue even if his overall number of attempts decline.

Compromising

Expect both Kubiak and Manning to make the compromises necessary to foster a positive working relationship and to make the team better. There’s no guarantee that Manning comes back, returns to form or will jive with Kubiak, but if both men want a ring, it can be done.

“I don’t think everybody should just think Kubes and Peyton can’t make it work,” said former Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer, via Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com. “Kubes is so smart, and Peyton is Peyton—one of the best of all time. They both would know they could help each other do it.”

Kubiak was Plummer’s offensive coordinator for three years, so he has a good idea of how he’ll operate. It won’t be easy for Manning and Kubiak to get on the same page about everything, but it could pay off in a big way if they do.

Kubiak has to trust Manning at the line of scrimmage, and Manning would have to lean more on Kubiak’s running game. The two would have to decide on how to use play action that doesn’t require Manning to move around very much. Manning would have to realize his limitations and do a better job protecting the football.

If Kubiak and Manning can compromise in key areas, there’s no reason the Super Bowl window can’t stay open in Denver for another season or two. Manning had an awful second half of the season by his standards and his worst game of the year in the playoffs, but that doesn’t erase the good throws and the production.

Kubiak may be able to preserve Manning in a vat of zone runs just long enough for him to brine the opposition in the playoffs. It’s as good a plan as any when the alternative is turning to an unproven quarterback like Brock Osweiler or Zac Dysert.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.com.