College Football Teams with Most to Lose Between Now and National Signing Day
The final two weeks before national signing day are spent recruiting uncommitted and committed prospects. Just because a player has vowed to attend one school doesn't mean others will keep their grubby paws off him.
As a result, certain teams enter this home stretch with a great deal to lose. The catalog of players they have "committed" for the cycle doesn't count until those players put pen to paper. Until then, there is still time for other schools to swoop in and poach them.
There are other ways to make this list, too. Teams making a coaching change or dealing with a poor recruiting cycle have a lot to lose by not gaining extra commitments.
Which schools must do the most to keep their 2015 class intact? Which schools can least afford to see one of their commitments flip? And which schools must absolutely land their top targets?
Here are five teams with the most on the line.
Alabama
1 of 5
Alabama has the most to lose because it has the most period. That is a small price to pay for having the No. 1 overall class.
Earlier this month, JC Shurburtt of 247Sports listed 5-star cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick as the highest-ranked recruit who could flip before signing day. "From what I'm told, [Florida State feels] pretty good about their chance to flip him," he told Bleacher Report's Stephen Nelson.
Also on the fence is 4-star cornerback Rico McGraw, the No. 145 overall player in the class, whose primary recruiter, Kevin Steele, just left Alabama for LSU. McGraw flipped from Georgia to Alabama in July but has kept in touch with UGA defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, per Jake Rowe of 247Sports, and seems to be in play for the Bulldogs.
Cornerback is the weakest position on Alabama's active roster, and Fitzpatrick and McGraw are two of the top 20 corners in the class. The Tide still have 5-stars Tony Brown and Marlon Humphrey from last cycle and 5-star Kendall Sheffield locked up this cycle, but losing two important players at a position of need would hurt nonetheless.
Mekhi Brown, the No. 114 overall player in the class, also said he "loved" his official visit to Louisville, per Ryan Bartow of 247Sports. The 4-star defensive end would be another tough loss.
Florida
2 of 5
Florida is unique in that it has a lot to lose by not gaining. It doesn't have to stress about the 10 prospects it already has committed, but it does have to stress about the blue-chippers it has targeted.
Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee predicted the Gators would land a top-25 class, despite their current place at No. 84. New head coach Jim McElwain, he guesses, will land Martez Ivey, Byron Cowart and CeCe Jefferson, the Nos. 2, 3 and 7 respective overall players in the class, and bring the Gators back near respectability.
The problem is that…well, what if he doesn't? Ivey, Cowart and Jefferson are also looking hard at Auburn, the landing spot of former Gators coach Will Muschamp, and so is 4-star linebacker Jeffrey Holland. What if McElwain only lands one of them? What if he lands zero? What an awful start to his tenure that would be.
Ole Miss
3 of 5
Two of the three most important players in Ole Miss' class are looking elsewhere, and losing them would be devastating.
The first is offensive tackle Drew Richmond, the No. 55 overall player in the class, who committed to the Rebels in September but has since made regular contact with Alabama and Tennessee. The Crimson Tide are always a threat to poach another team's best players, and the Volunteers have the advantage of being in state.
The second is inside linebacker Leo Lewis, the No. 63 overall player and top inside linebacker in the class, whom JC Shurburtt mentioned as one of the top candidates to flip. He grew up a Mississippi State fan and has also taken visits to Alabama and Texas A&M.
The Rebels signed five top-95 recruits in 2013, at which point they appeared to have turned some sort of recruiting corner. But they only landed one top-95 recruit in 2014, at which point they appeared to have regressed.
Richmond, Lewis and offensive guard Javon Patterson give the Rebels three top-95 recruits in 2015—a happy median between two years ago and last year. Losing Richmond or Lewis (or both) would skew that the wrong direction and make 2013 look even more like an exception.
Ole Miss wants it to look more like a rule.
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Texas
4 of 5
Texas lost one of its best overall recruits and a key member of its Florida contingent when athlete Tim Irvin flipped to Auburn Jan. 18.
What's worse, Irvin has already started recruiting some of that Florida contingent to join him. Irvin will host when 4-star cornerback Davante Davis visits Auburn Jan. 30, and after Davis also visited Miami Jan. 16, it seems more and more likely he'll defect.
Texas could survive the loss of Irvin (who has the potential to play cornerback) and Davis, but only if it lands one or both of Holton Hill and Kris Boyd. If all of this goes south, however, and the Longhorns end up with zero (or even just one) of these four cornerbacks, they will have whiffed in a big way at an area at which they need depth.
There's also the looming threat of Jim Harbaugh. Michigan's new head coach has yet to sound alarms in Austin, Texas, but he will if he keeps sniffing around 4-star quarterback Zach Gentry and 3-star defensive end Charles Omenihu. Gentry in particular is a linchpin of the class and was thought to be (and still is) a solid commitment.
Harbaugh is just a hard variable to account for.
UCLA
5 of 5
UCLA already lost Aliz'e Jones, the No. 1 tight end in the class, to Notre Dame. But that might just be the breaking of the seal.
Arizona State has reportedly made a move on Tevita Halalilo, per Greg Biggins of Scout.com, and has a strong chance of flipping him. Halailo is the No. 11 offensive guard and No. 229 overall player in the class.
Fred Ulu-Perry, the No. 3 center in the class, looks secure after not taking a reported trip to Nebraska, but his recruitment should still be monitored. He has flirted with too many schools to be counted on.
Lastly, it's hard not to hear the whispers about defensive end Keisean Lucier-South, the No. 17 overall player in the class, and his attraction to Michigan. KLS was interested in the Wolverines before they hired Jim Harbaugh; how does he feel about them now?
He is one of just 49 people Harbaugh follows on Twitter.
Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings and is accurate as of Tuesday, Jan. 20.
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